AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

Meta Platforms (Facebook) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Meta's Q2 revenue of $39.1B surpassed expectations, up 22% YoY. EPS jumped 73% YoY to $5.16, beating estimates.</li>
<li>Ad revenue within the Family of Apps rose 22% YoY, driven by online commerce and strong performance in Europe and the Rest of the World.</li>
<li>Q3 revenue forecasted between $38.5B and $41B. Meta’s AI investments are set to enhance ad delivery and support long-term growth, despite increasing CapEx.</li>
</ul>


Meta's Q2 revenue of $39.1B surpassed expectations, up 22% YoY. EPS jumped 73% YoY to $5.16, beating estimates.
Ad revenue within the Family of Apps rose 22% YoY, driven by online commerce and strong performance in Europe and the Rest of the World.
Q3 revenue forecasted between $38.5B and $41B. Meta’s AI investments are set to enhance ad delivery and support long-term growth, despite increasing CapEx.


Meta Surges 7% on Strong Q2 Report; Driven by Ad Growth, Q3 Forecast and AI Investments

<ul>
<li>Meta is expected to report a 58% YoY increase in EPS to $4.71, with revenue climbing 20% YoY to $38.29B, driven by robust ad performance.</li>
<li>Meta plans a 20% cut in Reality Labs' budget through 2026, aiming to save $3B while shifting focus to upcoming hardware production.</li>
<li>In Q1, increased daily active users and a 6% rise in average ad prices have boosted Meta’s ad revenue, despite heightened competition and regulatory pressures. Likely to continue.</li>
</ul>


Meta is expected to report a 58% YoY increase in EPS to $4.71, with revenue climbing 20% YoY to $38.29B, driven by robust ad performance.
Meta plans a 20% cut in Reality Labs' budget through 2026, aiming to save $3B while shifting focus to upcoming hardware production.
In Q1, increased daily active users and a 6% rise in average ad prices have boosted Meta’s ad revenue, despite heightened competition and regulatory pressures. Likely to continue.


[Q2 Earnings Preview] Meta's Ad Revenues Expected to Surge, But Rising Spend Remains a Concern

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.</li><li>KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.</li><li>KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91</li></ul>

KLA had a rare miss. The guidance was a bit light for the inspection execution machine.KLA rarely misses and is by far the best financially managed of the large-cap semicap companies.KLA reports Q2 EPS $6.16 ex-items vs FactSet $5.91

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US)

Meta Surges 7% on Strong Q2 Report; Driven by Ad Growth, Q3 Forecast and AI Investments

Meta's Q2 revenue hits $39.1B (+22% YoY) with earnings at $5.16/share (+73% YoY). Shares climbed 7% after exceeding forecasts and offering a robust...

Mint Finance

[Q2 Earnings Preview] Meta's Ad Revenues Expected to Surge, But Rising Spend Remains a Concern

Meta to report Q2 earnings on 31/July, with expected EPS of $4.71 (+58% YoY) and revenue of $38.29B(+20% YoY). Investors look forward to strong ad...

Mint Finance

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

KLA & LaserTec, AMD, Hyperscaler Capex, SK Hynix, SWKS and QRVO, WOLF, MCHP

Another week of earnings, with KLA having a rare miss and the guidance being a bit light for the inspection execution machine.

Fabricated Knowledge

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Names to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025? Different from consensus, we expect non AI server market...

Andrew Lu

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