Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Former Head of Asia ex-Japan Semiconductor and TFT-LCD/Touch Research at Barclays and Citi Bank, Former Head of Technology at 國金證券

Stories Behind the Reported Nov 2023 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

The First Semi Micron to Guide 1Q24; Conservative Now but Likely Raise Later

Sox Index Broke New High; Nov US SEMI Equipment and Oct SIA Sales Showed Y/Y Improvement

What Early Indicators from the Reported Oct 23 Taiwan Semi Sales

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

As Expected from Our Earlier BOM/CoWoS Analysis, Consensus to Raise Nvidia Estimates Inevitably

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;</li>
<li>Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;</li>
<li>Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.</li>
</ul>


After our global server market model update, we see 3Q23 server market decline and data center vendors' capex cut not consistent with Nvidia's robust y/y sales growth of over 200%;
Discrepancy: 1. Nvidia gaining value on AI server, losing zero on non AI; 2. AI servers grow at the expenses of non AI; 3. most vendors not only in server;
Different from  consensus view, we expect general (non AI) server market to decline 16% y/y in 2024 and 29% in 2025 and suggest to avoid general server supply chain vendors.


Inspur Electronic Infmtn Indtry (000977 CH)

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?