Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Former Head of Asia ex-Japan Semiconductor and TFT-LCD/Touch Research at Barclays and Citi Bank, Former Head of Technology at 國金證券

The First Semi-Micron to Guide 2Q24; All Good News Except MOI

Micron. Back In The Black & No Going Back

Early Sign of AI GPU Market Inflection Point?

What Stories TSMC Investor Conference Telling Us About Customers, Supply Chains, and Competitors

BOM Cost and CoWoS Demand Analysis on Nvidia AI GPU HGX for 2023-2025, Room to Raise Estimates

What to Avoid if AI Server Will Continue to Squeeze General Server Market in 2024-2025?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

NVIDIA Corp

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?