Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.</li><li>Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.</li><li>The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.</li></ul>

The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us.Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations, but now, we’re observing supply chain disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks pushing oil prices higher, potentially reversing that entire trend.The effect of these recent developments on the market and their continued impact on the economy is still unclear.

Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are growing increasingly certain that US inflation will not print at 2% or below in this cycle.</li><li>The shelter component is probably not waning fast enough for inflation to reach target before a cyclical reacceleration in prices will take goods categories higher again.</li><li>H2-2024 pricing for the Fed looks oddly off given this.</li></ul>

Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are growing increasingly certain that US inflation will not print at 2% or below in this cycle.The shelter component is probably not waning fast enough for inflation to reach target before a cyclical reacceleration in prices will take goods categories higher again.H2-2024 pricing for the Fed looks oddly off given this.

CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul>
<li>Even if the year is still young, 2024 has started with a pushback against lower rates.</li>
<li>Arguments to wait for better levels to enter outright receivers battle with the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) on the next big rally. Three trades to start the year.</li>
<li>In our views on EUR swaps in 2024, we wrote that rates could see a pushback in Q1 before resuming the downtrend for the remainder of the year.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


Even if the year is still young, 2024 has started with a pushback against lower rates.
Arguments to wait for better levels to enter outright receivers battle with the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) on the next big rally. Three trades to start the year.
In our views on EUR swaps in 2024, we wrote that rates could see a pushback in Q1 before resuming the downtrend for the remainder of the year.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.</li>
<li>In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.</li>
<li>These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.</li>
</ul>


Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles.
In the US, rising goods inflation might contribute to reversing the disinflation trade or, at the very least, establish a floor for yields.
These factors create a challenging scenario for emerging markets, as they face potential inflationary pressures and reduced exports.


EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

<ul><li>Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception.</li><li>The new year has started off with a blast, and it looks like dynamics all of a sudden have changed with sentiment going from full risk-on to risk-averse as the calendar has turned.</li><li>The US will be the overshadowing region to watch in the coming weeks as they look troubled the most with prices looking to stay hawkish for some time to come, while the labor market is weakening, but increasing growth due to easier financial conditions could keep the US away from stagflation.</li></ul>

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception.The new year has started off with a blast, and it looks like dynamics all of a sudden have changed with sentiment going from full risk-on to risk-averse as the calendar has turned.The US will be the overshadowing region to watch in the coming weeks as they look troubled the most with prices looking to stay hawkish for some time to come, while the labor market is weakening, but increasing growth due to easier financial conditions could keep the US away from stagflation.

5 Things We Watch: USD-flation, Global Inflation, US Labor Market, Japan, Bitcoin

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?

The speed at which financial market narratives shift nowadays never ceases to amaze us. Last quarter saw a notable drop in inflation expectations,...

Steno Research

CPI Nugget: Kiss your 2% target goodbye, Powell?

Inflation once again printed smack-dab at our target of 3.9% YoY core inflation and even if there are mixed signals beneath the hood, we are...

Steno Research

EUR Rates: FOMO

Arguments to wait for better levels to enter outright receivers battle with the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) on the next big rally. Three trades to...

Nordea

EM by EM #38: Inflation Returning with a Vengeance?

Increased freight rates could lead significant players in China to delay imports and turn to local demand, depleting existing stockpiles. In the...

Steno Research

5 Things We Watch: USD-flation, Global Inflation, US Labor Market, Japan, Bitcoin

Global macro never sleeps, and this week is no exception. The new year has started off with a blast, and it looks like dynamics all of a sudden...

Steno Research

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