Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>A week of bizarre front-end volatility has come to an end.</li>
<li>From “higher for longer” to banking crisis 2.0 to inflation crisis 2.0 in a matter of five trading days.</li>
<li>
What’s up and down? It’s time to cut through the BS.

</li>
</ul>


A week of bizarre front-end volatility has come to an end.
From “higher for longer” to banking crisis 2.0 to inflation crisis 2.0 in a matter of five trading days.

What’s up and down? It’s time to cut through the BS.




Steno Signals #85 – NFP Report Full of FAKE News?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>The Yellen Put is still alive while Powell is tied to his (premature) December pivot.</li><li>We find it likely that volatility will pick up as markets are increasingly confused about the trajectory.</li><li>No bets, only hedges vs the US remains our conviction mantra–  We remain long the USD, implicitly betting on higher USD rates in the 5yr sector (versus peers) and long select commodities thriving in a cyclical rebound,</li></ul>

The Yellen Put is still alive while Powell is tied to his (premature) December pivot.We find it likely that volatility will pick up as markets are increasingly confused about the trajectory.No bets, only hedges vs the US remains our conviction mantra–  We remain long the USD, implicitly betting on higher USD rates in the 5yr sector (versus peers) and long select commodities thriving in a cyclical rebound,

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>The most noticeable data point from freight rates was the drop in the route from China to Europe.</li><li>It looks like the buyers couldn’t stomach higher than USD 5-6k prices in Europe.</li><li>We also see slight increases in the China to US route.</li></ul>

The most noticeable data point from freight rates was the drop in the route from China to Europe.It looks like the buyers couldn’t stomach higher than USD 5-6k prices in Europe.We also see slight increases in the China to US route.

Suez Watch: Is the peak in freight rates in?

<ul><li>Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries again</li><li>The ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have sufficient evidence of 2% inflation</li><li>The Fed is likely to postpone the first cut until May, but the risk of a March cut will be traded up through February on seasonality issues</li></ul>

Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries againThe ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have sufficient evidence of 2% inflationThe Fed is likely to postpone the first cut until May, but the risk of a March cut will be traded up through February on seasonality issues

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) will sell a new 10-year benchmark, maturing on 15 July 2034, for EUR 4 to 6bn via the Dutch Direct Auction on Tuesday 6 February.</li><li>Re-openings during the course of the year are expected to raise the outstanding amount to EUR 12bn.</li><li>The Dutch preliminary funding need for this year amounts to EUR 75.7bn, with total bond funding target set at EUR 40bn, down from EUR 46.3bn in 2023.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) will sell a new 10-year benchmark, maturing on 15 July 2034, for EUR 4 to 6bn via the Dutch Direct Auction on Tuesday 6 February.Re-openings during the course of the year are expected to raise the outstanding amount to EUR 12bn.The Dutch preliminary funding need for this year amounts to EUR 75.7bn, with total bond funding target set at EUR 40bn, down from EUR 46.3bn in 2023.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Steno Signals #85 – NFP Report Full of FAKE News?

A week of bizarre front-end volatility has come to an end. From “higher for longer” to banking crisis 2.0 to inflation crisis 2.0 in a matter of...

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster

Main Takeaways: – The Yellen Put is still alive while Powell is tied to his (premature) December pivot– We find it likely that volatility will...

Steno Research

Suez Watch: Is the peak in freight rates in?

The most noticeable data point from freight rates was the drop in the route from China to Europe. It looks like the buyers couldn’t stomach higher...

Steno Research

G3 Watch: Timing the first rate cut

Receiving very front-end rates is starting to look attractive across all G3 countries again. The ECB is likely to cut in March as they will have...

Steno Research

Bond Watch: Dutch Pick-Up

The Dutch State Treasury Agency (DSTA) will sell a new 10-year benchmark, maturing on 15 July 2034, for EUR 4 to 6bn via theDutch Direct Auctionon...

Nordea

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