Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major central banks (except the BoJ).</li><li>Markets feel certain that the SNB and the ECB cuts in June (we agree), but Fed, RBA, BOC and BoE pricing is closing on 50/50 calls after a series of sticky inflation numbers from North America.</li><li>The Fed is priced hawkishly relative to the 75bps dot plot for 2024, while the ECB is the most dovish central bank in forward pricing for 2024 but yet falls short of the 100bps hinted by the Greek member Stournaras last week.</li></ul>

The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major central banks (except the BoJ).Markets feel certain that the SNB and the ECB cuts in June (we agree), but Fed, RBA, BOC and BoE pricing is closing on 50/50 calls after a series of sticky inflation numbers from North America.The Fed is priced hawkishly relative to the 75bps dot plot for 2024, while the ECB is the most dovish central bank in forward pricing for 2024 but yet falls short of the 100bps hinted by the Greek member Stournaras last week.

G5 Rates Watch: Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the biggest interest rate cutter of them all?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead?</li><li>It is a fair question to ask after what seems like years of recession chasing once again ending in tears for the macro bears.</li><li>This sublime graphic created by the great Lee Coppock is exceptionally telling.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead?It is a fair question to ask after what seems like years of recession chasing once again ending in tears for the macro bears.This sublime graphic created by the great Lee Coppock is exceptionally telling.

Steno Signals #91 – No more recessions ever!?

<ul><li>Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations and potential cuts from the Fed allows USD real-rates to diminish compared to peers.</li><li>The growth/liquidity outlook in the US still looks to outperform the outlook in Europe/Asia, and the implied outperformance of US equities will continue to put downward pressure on the USD from an FX hedging perspective.</li><li>If we are on the verge of a commodity bull run paired with increased momentum in Asia, markets will likely seek further out of the risk curve towards higher beta FX (AUD, CNY etc.) and away from the USD.</li></ul>

Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations and potential cuts from the Fed allows USD real-rates to diminish compared to peers.The growth/liquidity outlook in the US still looks to outperform the outlook in Europe/Asia, and the implied outperformance of US equities will continue to put downward pressure on the USD from an FX hedging perspective.If we are on the verge of a commodity bull run paired with increased momentum in Asia, markets will likely seek further out of the risk curve towards higher beta FX (AUD, CNY etc.) and away from the USD.

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The ECB’s new policy framework makes it more likely to succeed with balance-sheet normalisation, leading to steeper curves and tighter asset swap spreads eventually.</li><li>Markets may have been off to a head start, though.</li><li>Today, the ECB published its new policy framework. Near-term implications are mostly in the nitty gritty stuff while the longer-term implication is that the new framework will make it more likely that the ECB can complete policy normalisation without liquidity stress, leaving curves steeper and asset swap spreads tighter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The ECB’s new policy framework makes it more likely to succeed with balance-sheet normalisation, leading to steeper curves and tighter asset swap spreads eventually.Markets may have been off to a head start, though.Today, the ECB published its new policy framework. Near-term implications are mostly in the nitty gritty stuff while the longer-term implication is that the new framework will make it more likely that the ECB can complete policy normalisation without liquidity stress, leaving curves steeper and asset swap spreads tighter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>As we reached the end of 2023, EURUSD basis hit the highest levels seen for a very long time – especially in the short end.</li><li>In “cash-terms” this can be interpreted as the demand for US dollars has been very low – or in relative terms – EUR has become more expensive.</li><li>With risk sentiment remaining overall positive, we don’t see this changing in March; Relative excess liquidity between USD and EUR could impact the outlook for the front slightly lowerin the near future– more on that later in this publication.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

As we reached the end of 2023, EURUSD basis hit the highest levels seen for a very long time – especially in the short end.In “cash-terms” this can be interpreted as the demand for US dollars has been very low – or in relative terms – EUR has become more expensive.With risk sentiment remaining overall positive, we don’t see this changing in March; Relative excess liquidity between USD and EUR could impact the outlook for the front slightly lowerin the near future– more on that later in this publication.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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G5 Rates Watch: Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the biggest interest rate cutter of them all?

The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #91 – No more recessions ever!?

Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead? It is a fair question to ask after what...

Steno Research

FX Watch: Tough times ahead for king USD?

Take-aways upfront: The USD looks to have broken the clear downtrend from Q3/Q4 last year, but the combination of rising inflation expectations...

Steno Research

EUR Rates: Strategy Review

The ECB’s new policy framework makes it more likely to succeed with balance-sheet normalisation, leading to steeper curves and tighter asset swap...

Nordea

Nordea XCCY publication: Q2-2024

In “cash-terms” this can be interpreted as the demand for US dollars has been very low – or in relative terms – EUR has become more expensive.

Nordea

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