Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/039/499/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-11-30%20at%203.35.00%20PM.png?1512018337" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="39499"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
The second estimate of Q3 GDP, which saw growth revised up to 3.3% SAAR from the 3.1% SAAR advance estimate, provided further evidence of the US economy's strength.
Increased estimates of capex - a theme that we continually stressed - were the main source of the upgrade. Equipment capex is now estimated to have surged by 10.4% SAAR in Q3. Bellwether lead indicators signal that even better is still to come (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-boom-part-2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15418">Chart of the Day: BOOM! - Part 2</a>). 
One less-heralded aspect of the US's late-cycle boom…
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The second estimate of Q3 GDP, which saw growth revised up to 3.3% SAAR from the 3.1% SAAR advance estimate, provided further evidence of the US economy's strength.
Increased estimates of capex - a theme that we continually stressed - were the main source of the upgrade. Equipment capex is now estimated to have surged by 10.4% SAAR in Q3. Bellwether lead indicators signal that even better is still to come (see Chart of the Day: BOOM! - Part 2). 
One less-heralded aspect of the US's late-cycle boom…


FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

We believe bitcoin is not a bubble, but is growing into a role as an important financial instrument that will be used as a significant store of value for global wealth.  Its whippy meteoric rise may be growing pains rather than an irrational mania.

We believe bitcoin is not a bubble, but is growing into a role as an important financial instrument that will be used as a significant store of value for global wealth.  Its whippy meteoric rise may be growing pains rather than an irrational mania. 

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

DXY - USD index is expected to find support at 92.50-70 for a mild bounce sequence as we move closer to the Fed meeting on the 12-13th. DXY bounce resistance comes in at 93.70-94.00 and the fresh short zone for a break below 92.50 to pressure the bigger 92 macro support zone. Asian FX is our top basket to be short the USD which is equity supportive.Given the bear turn just under DXY 93.50 we would be targeting DXY 88 going forward after we hash through a December Fed rate hike. We initiated a…

DXY - USD index is expected to find support at 92.50-70 for a mild bounce sequence as we move closer to the Fed meeting on the 12-13th. DXY bounce resistance comes in at 93.70-94.00 and the fresh short zone for a break below 92.50 to pressure the bigger 92 macro support zone. Asian FX is our top basket to be short the USD which is equity supportive.Given the bear turn just under DXY 93.50 we would be targeting DXY 88 going forward after we hash through a December Fed rate hike. We initiated a…

Fed Meet a Fresh USD Short Opportunity Against Asian FX

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Incoming regional manufacturing surveys confirm that, if coming slightly off the boil, the US's manufacturing boom remains in full-swing with buoyant capex and export growth leaving GDP growth, after back-to-back 3% SAAR prints, on course for a stunning 4% SAAR pace in Q4. 
On deck last night was the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, which alongside the Chicago PMI, is the longest established and, hence, most important of the monthly regional surveys. These surveys are essentially 'nomadic': they…
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Incoming regional manufacturing surveys confirm that, if coming slightly off the boil, the US's manufacturing boom remains in full-swing with buoyant capex and export growth leaving GDP growth, after back-to-back 3% SAAR prints, on course for a stunning 4% SAAR pace in Q4. 
On deck last night was the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, which alongside the Chicago PMI, is the longest established and, hence, most important of the monthly regional surveys. These surveys are essentially 'nomadic': they…


Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods.  These capital flows are tending to drive currencies; Asian EM currencies are out-performing other EM regions.  The USD is tending to weaken as the US growth outlook is moderate and no more special than other economies.  The Fed may be raising rates faster than other countries, but not so fast to upset domestic or global growth expectations.  Commodity currencies are under-performing.  There appears to be excess supply of commodities, and while some commodity prices have strengthened this year, performance has been mixed.  Chinese construction demand may be slowing, weakening demand for steel-making commodities.  Yield curve flattening may reflect good disinflation trends related to technological disruption and globalization that support global asset markets; albeit with winners and losers along the lines of disruption.  Comprehensive US tax reform may upset recent trends of a softer USD and strong EM markets.  GBP has firmed this week despite evidence that its economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty, UK government instability, and growing time pressure on Brexit negotiations.  The AUD/USD 2yr swap spread is close to flipping into negative territory for the first time since 2001.

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods.  These capital flows are tending to drive currencies; Asian EM currencies are out-performing other EM regions.  The USD is tending to weaken as the US growth outlook is moderate and no more special than other economies.  The Fed may be raising rates faster than other countries, but not so fast to upset domestic or global growth expectations.  Commodity currencies are under-performing.  There appears to be excess supply of commodities, and while some commodity prices have strengthened this year, performance has been mixed.  Chinese construction demand may be slowing, weakening demand for steel-making commodities.  Yield curve flattening may reflect good disinflation trends related to technological disruption and globalization that support global asset markets; albeit with winners and losers along the lines of disruption.  Comprehensive US tax reform may upset recent trends of a softer USD and strong EM markets.  GBP has firmed this week despite evidence that its economy is suffering from Brexit uncertainty, UK government instability, and growing time pressure on Brexit negotiations.  The AUD/USD 2yr swap spread is close to flipping into negative territory for the first time since 2001.

IT Disruption Driving up Asia EM Currencies, GBP Risk Builds, AUD Yield Advantage Gone

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Chart of the Day: BOOM! - Part 3

The second estimate of Q3 GDP, which saw growth revised up to 3.3% SAAR from the 3.1% SAAR advance estimate, provided further evidence of the US...

Richard Iley

Bitcoin – Bubble or Growing Pains?

We believe bitcoin is not a bubble, but is growing into a role as an important financial instrument that will be used as a significant store of...

Greg Gibbs

Fed Meet a Fresh USD Short Opportunity Against Asian FX

DXY - USD index is expected to find support at 92.50-70 for a mild bounce sequence as we move closer to the Fed meeting on the 12-13th. DXY bounce...

Thomas Schroeder

Chart of the Day: BOOM! - Part 2

Incoming regional manufacturing surveys confirm that, if coming slightly off the boil, the US's manufacturing boom remains in full-swing...

Richard Iley

IT Disruption Driving up Asia EM Currencies, GBP Risk Builds, AUD Yield Advantage Gone

Investors are pursuing gains in equity markets; in particular, EM markets that are big exporters of IT goods. These capital flows are tending to...

Greg Gibbs

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Market Cap (USDm)

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