Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

FX & Rates

<p><strong>Exchange Rates: Determined By Numerous Forms of Capital Flows</strong></p><p>Current account balances necessitate a one-way offsetting capital flow of equal magnitude to prevent exchange rate fluctuations. The components of capital flows are, however, not homogenous in their behaviour. Consequently, the financial media often falls into the trap of solely stressing the perceived power of interest rate differentials in driving aggregate capital flows and, therefore, exchange rates.<em> The reality is, however, that</em>…</p>

Exchange Rates: Determined By Numerous Forms of Capital FlowsCurrent account balances necessitate a one-way offsetting capital flow of equal magnitude to prevent exchange rate fluctuations. The components of capital flows are, however, not homogenous in their behaviour. Consequently, the financial media often falls into the trap of solely stressing the perceived power of interest rate differentials in driving aggregate capital flows and, therefore, exchange rates. The reality is, however, that…

US/Euro Exchange Rate: When "Hot Money" Becomes Over-Hyped

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/041/315/original/Screen%20Shot%202018-01-04%20at%207.41.57%20AM.png?1515014214" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="41315"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
<p>How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn, determine how long can global risk in general and cyclical stocks in particular continue to charge ahead as they done in the first few days of 2018?</p>
<p>Both in terms of duration and amplitude the US economy's surge is already approaching historical limits. ISM's near 40-year high reached back in September is almost certainly the cyclical peak, reached 21…</p>
</div>


How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn, determine how long can global risk in general and cyclical stocks in particular continue to charge ahead as they done in the first few days of 2018?
Both in terms of duration and amplitude the US economy's surge is already approaching historical limits. ISM's near 40-year high reached back in September is almost certainly the cyclical peak, reached 21…


<div class="content-highlight"><p>2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number of non-consensus calls - 18 of them for '18 - to help navigate the minefield.</p><p>Our first five are: </p><ul><li>global growth momentum has already peaked and will slow through the year;</li><li>the US's growth-inflation mix will deteriorate and the Philipps curve should flicker back to life;</li><li>The Federal Reserve will hike more than expected, lifting the Fed Funds rate at least three times;</li><li>the UST curve will keep flattening but 'bond market conundrum 2.0' will continue to cap longer yields;</li><li> risks to oil are heavily to the downside. A slump back below $50 per barrel could be THE story of 2018.</li></ul><p>Another 5 to follow soon. </p></div>

2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number of non-consensus calls - 18 of them for '18 - to help navigate the minefield.Our first five are: global growth momentum has already peaked and will slow through the year;the US's growth-inflation mix will deteriorate and the Philipps curve should flicker back to life;The Federal Reserve will hike more than expected, lifting the Fed Funds rate at least three times;the UST curve will keep flattening but 'bond market conundrum 2.0' will continue to cap longer yields; risks to oil are heavily to the downside. A slump back below $50 per barrel could be THE story of 2018.Another 5 to follow soon. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/041/144/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-12-30%20at%207.12.15%20AM.png?1514580171" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="41144"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
<p>The bellwether ISM manufacturing survey is, by nature, fiercely nomadic. In other words, it is always going somewhere: north or south. It almost never flatlines. And after approaching near 30-year highs this September as US manufacturing enjoys an extraordinary late(ish) cycle boom, the ISM survey therefore has only one way to go: down. The key question is how far?</p>
<p>To better answer this, we have looked at the behaviour of the ISM headline index following its last seven cyclical peaks going back…</p>
</div>


The bellwether ISM manufacturing survey is, by nature, fiercely nomadic. In other words, it is always going somewhere: north or south. It almost never flatlines. And after approaching near 30-year highs this September as US manufacturing enjoys an extraordinary late(ish) cycle boom, the ISM survey therefore has only one way to go: down. The key question is how far?
To better answer this, we have looked at the behaviour of the ISM headline index following its last seven cyclical peaks going back…


<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/040/896/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-12-21%20at%207.42.39%20AM.png?1513804412" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="40896"></figure><div class="content-highlight">
<p>The post-GFC collapse in the debt service ratio of US households is another key reason for optimism about the economy's medium-term prospects and the potential for the current cycle to beat post WWII records for its longevity (see also <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chart-of-the-day-age-is-just-a-number" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15024">Chart of the Day: Age Is Just A Number</a>). </p>
<p>The debt-service ratio (DSR) estimates households combined interest payments (interest and principal) on both mortgage and consumer credit as a percentage of disposable income (PDI). <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/default.htm" target="_blank">The data is complied by the Federal</a>…</p>
</div>


The post-GFC collapse in the debt service ratio of US households is another key reason for optimism about the economy's medium-term prospects and the potential for the current cycle to beat post WWII records for its longevity (see also Chart of the Day: Age Is Just A Number). 
The debt-service ratio (DSR) estimates households combined interest payments (interest and principal) on both mortgage and consumer credit as a percentage of disposable income (PDI). The data is complied by the Federal…


Chart of the Day: A Distinct Lack of Interest

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

US/Euro Exchange Rate: When "Hot Money" Becomes Over-Hyped

Exchange Rates: Determined By Numerous Forms of Capital FlowsCurrent account balances necessitate a one-way offsetting capital flow of equal...

DeSaque Macro Research

Chart of the Day: BOOM! 2018 Edition

How long can the US's extraordinary manufacturing boom, which we have been in the vanguard of highlighting, continue? The answer will, in turn,...

Richard Iley

Global: 18 For '18 - Part 1

2018 promises to be another fascinating, but almost certainly more challenging year for global investors. We have identified a number...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: Tuareg Economics

The bellwether ISM manufacturing survey is, by nature, fiercely nomadic. In other words, it is always going somewhere: north or south. It almost...

Richard Iley

Chart of the Day: A Distinct Lack of Interest

The post-GFC collapse in the debt service ratio of US households is another key reason for optimism about the economy's medium-term prospects and...

Richard Iley

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)