Founder

Olivier Desbarres

Exacting. Excellent. Exceeding. Exemplary.

4X Global Research

4X Global Research was founded in 2017 to provide institutional and corporate clients with the substantive research, high-quality analysis and thoughtful insight on Emerging and G20 economies and financial markets they need to make informed and timely decisions and gain an edge in their investments.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. </li>
<li>Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. </li>
<li>But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).</li>
</ul>


Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb has generated much uncertainty and financial market volatility, including in FX markets. 
Some asset prices have moved broadly as “expected”, with Rouble, Euro and global equities down and Dollar,  gold and fossil fuel prices up. 
But other asset prices have been range bound in past fortnight, including S&amp;P 500, Treasury yields and a number of Asian currencies, or held their own (AUD and NZD).


House of Market Insights, Market Radar

Market Radar

House of Market Insights

Quick market updates and lot of ideas for your investments from a multi-asset portfolio manager working for a family office.

Quick Market Updates

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The last ten days have been critical and even distressing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a terrible event. This event is heartbreaking from a human point of view, and it had heavy consequences on markets too.</li><li>The fear led investors to put money on the most classical safe havens, like Gold, Treasury, Bund, Dollar and Yen</li><li>On the other side, equities have been severely hit, especially in Europe.</li></ul>

The last ten days have been critical and even distressing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a terrible event. This event is heartbreaking from a human point of view, and it had heavy consequences on markets too.The fear led investors to put money on the most classical safe havens, like Gold, Treasury, Bund, Dollar and YenOn the other side, equities have been severely hit, especially in Europe.

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened</li>
<li>European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.</li>
<li>I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.</li>
</ul>


The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened
European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.
I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.


<ul>
<li>Markets focussed on the risk that likely Federal Reserve and global central bank policy rate hikes and monetary policy tightening will weigh on equities and implications for Dollar. </li>
<li>But there's also risk that downturn in US equities would weigh on US consumer confidence and demand and in turn inflationary pressures and see the Fed pausing its hiking cycle.</li>
<li>It may be different this time round, given very negative Fed real policy rate, but in the previous three Fed rate hiking cycles US equities were generally trending higher.</li>
</ul>


Markets focussed on the risk that likely Federal Reserve and global central bank policy rate hikes and monetary policy tightening will weigh on equities and implications for Dollar. 
But there's also risk that downturn in US equities would weigh on US consumer confidence and demand and in turn inflationary pressures and see the Fed pausing its hiking cycle.
It may be different this time round, given very negative Fed real policy rate, but in the previous three Fed rate hiking cycles US equities were generally trending higher.


Fed Hikes Not Immune from Equity Collapse

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

<ul>
<li>DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.</li>
<li>Divisions exist between the Euro bottoming and risk FX (AUD and ZAR) with latent USD bull support. Q2 equity risk off a key driver for risk FX.</li>
<li>US 10yr close to our 1.95% PT, above would see an unsustainable push above 2% that would align with a USD topping process.</li>
</ul>


DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.
Divisions exist between the Euro bottoming and risk FX (AUD and ZAR) with latent USD bull support. Q2 equity risk off a key driver for risk FX.
US 10yr close to our 1.95% PT, above would see an unsustainable push above 2% that would align with a USD topping process.


United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Market Snapshot, Theatre of War

Amidst carnage in financial markets, some assets - inc US Treasury yields, some Asian and high-yielding EM currencies, AUD & NZD and even S&P 500 -...

Olivier Desbarres

War + inflation can lead to stagflation

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Market Radar

Buy at the Sound of Cannons

The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened

Untying The Gordian Knot

Fed Hikes Not Immune from Equity Collapse

Direction of US equities and their impact on consumption and ultimately inflation will colour timing & magnitude of Fed hikes & management of its...

Olivier Desbarres

Dollar Top Leading a Yield Peak

DXY call for a top near 97.50-98 is unfolding. A re test to set up an opportunity to short the USD as yields push into a near term topping zone.

Thomas Schroeder

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