FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the economy and markets.  We expect this to push the USD to new highs in coming months, even if it points to longer-term risks for the US economy.  US Inflation pressure is a major risk for global asset prices, and the CPI data on Thursday may set the tone for the market as it contemplates further evidence of a tightening labor market.  Trade policy remains a weight on China and Asian markets.  There is no new news on Nafta, but a three-way deal with Canada still seems a likely outcome, helping support the CAD. The market expects no change in the ECB policy outlook.  Economic activity and inflation have been stable in recent months. However, European bank shares are significantly weaker, and Draghi is likely to display caution when facing probing questions on the multiple risks facing the region.

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the economy and markets.  We expect this to push the USD to new highs in coming months, even if it points to longer-term risks for the US economy.  US Inflation pressure is a major risk for global asset prices, and the CPI data on Thursday may set the tone for the market as it contemplates further evidence of a tightening labor market.  Trade policy remains a weight on China and Asian markets.  There is no new news on Nafta, but a three-way deal with Canada still seems a likely outcome, helping support the CAD. The market expects no change in the ECB policy outlook.  Economic activity and inflation have been stable in recent months. However, European bank shares are significantly weaker, and Draghi is likely to display caution when facing probing questions on the multiple risks facing the region.

The USA’s Late-Cycle Fiscal Adventure Kicks-In

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

The current bout of instability in global financial markets is the (inevitable) culmination of the Great Divergence between countries in economic, financial and corporate governance models, which has characterised the post-GFC environment. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22821" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22821:1">USD (USD CURNCY)</a> and equity markets are completing the journey from disgust to hubris which began in 2009, while emerging market equities and currencies are moving in the opposite direction.

The current bout of instability in global financial markets is the (inevitable) culmination of the Great Divergence between countries in economic, financial and corporate governance models, which has characterised the post-GFC environment. The USD (USD CURNCY) and equity markets are completing the journey from disgust to hubris which began in 2009, while emerging market equities and currencies are moving in the opposite direction.

The US wages data and trade policy announcements that may come before end week will keep global markets on edge.  There is scope for a corrective bounce in EM assets, but the prospect of further US rate rises and an escalation of the US-China trade war may hang over global markets for some time.  The Australian GDP report was much stronger than expected, rising at an annualised 4.1% in H1, well above the trend growth rate of 2.75%, suggesting that the economy has significant momentum.  Global and domestic risks to growth have become more elevated, but the economy appears reasonably placed to take a few punches.  The AUD has built in a discount for these increased risks and is cheap relative to Australia’s still solid commodity export prices, helping support income growth.

The US wages data and trade policy announcements that may come before end week will keep global markets on edge.  There is scope for a corrective bounce in EM assets, but the prospect of further US rate rises and an escalation of the US-China trade war may hang over global markets for some time.  The Australian GDP report was much stronger than expected, rising at an annualised 4.1% in H1, well above the trend growth rate of 2.75%, suggesting that the economy has significant momentum.  Global and domestic risks to growth have become more elevated, but the economy appears reasonably placed to take a few punches.  The AUD has built in a discount for these increased risks and is cheap relative to Australia’s still solid commodity export prices, helping support income growth.

Australian Economy Hitting Its Stride, but AUD Is Pricing a Growth Stumble

Emerging market chaos has resumed and is spreading to some USD strength against majors.  CHF has been the big winner offering the most reliable store of value in a crisis in the last month.  There is a remarkable dichotomy between chaos in EM markets and relative stability in the US and some other developed market assets and currencies.  Risk of contagion to US equities and bonds is growing.  The EUR is softer but is also much more stable than it was in mid-August in response to deteriorating Italian and regional bank shares.

Emerging market chaos has resumed and is spreading to some USD strength against majors.  CHF has been the big winner offering the most reliable store of value in a crisis in the last month.  There is a remarkable dichotomy between chaos in EM markets and relative stability in the US and some other developed market assets and currencies.  Risk of contagion to US equities and bonds is growing.  The EUR is softer but is also much more stable than it was in mid-August in response to deteriorating Italian and regional bank shares.

The FX market is likely to keep swinging from short-term cyclical strength in the USD to a desire to look over the cycle to building longer-term weakness in the USD.  For the most part, this year has been characterised by short-term cyclical factors boosting the USD.  But in the last two weeks, the market is again trying to see the US economy peaking and re-engaging in global assets.  However, there are a number of risks with this strategy.  The market may still be under-estimating the building inflation pressure in the USA and the peak in US rates.  Pockets of emerging markets remain vulnerable to higher US rates.  Italy remains a threat for the EUR.  The US is moving towards more tariffs against China.  We think it best to remain light on your feet.

The FX market is likely to keep swinging from short-term cyclical strength in the USD to a desire to look over the cycle to building longer-term weakness in the USD.  For the most part, this year has been characterised by short-term cyclical factors boosting the USD.  But in the last two weeks, the market is again trying to see the US economy peaking and re-engaging in global assets.  However, there are a number of risks with this strategy.  The market may still be under-estimating the building inflation pressure in the USA and the peak in US rates.  Pockets of emerging markets remain vulnerable to higher US rates.  Italy remains a threat for the EUR.  The US is moving towards more tariffs against China.  We think it best to remain light on your feet.

Short-Term USD Up-Cycle Clashes with Approaching Long-Term Down-Cycle

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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The USA’s Late-Cycle Fiscal Adventure Kicks-In

US yields are kicking to new highs as the US late-cycle fiscal adventure, and America First (tariff and sanctions) policy tighten their grip on the...

Greg Gibbs

Hubris, Disgust and the Great Divergence

The current bout of instability in global financial markets is the (inevitable) culmination of the Great Divergence between countries in economic,...

John-Paul Smith

Australian Economy Hitting Its Stride, but AUD Is Pricing a Growth Stumble

The US wages data and trade policy announcements that may come before end week will keep global markets on edge. There is scope for a corrective...

Greg Gibbs

Emerging Market Chaos Returns

Emerging market chaos has resumed and is spreading to some USD strength against majors. CHF has been the big winner offering the most reliable...

Greg Gibbs

Short-Term USD Up-Cycle Clashes with Approaching Long-Term Down-Cycle

The FX market is likely to keep swinging from short-term cyclical strength in the USD to a desire to look over the cycle to building longer-term...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)