Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done'</li>
<li>Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight</li>
<li>Evidencing the large negative print on 'real' 10-year term premia, we argue Fed Funds is already too high</li>
<li>US policy rates should fall by 100bp, since we estimate 'neutral' Fed Funds at 1.5%</li>
</ul>


Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done'
Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight
Evidencing the large negative print on 'real' 10-year term premia, we argue Fed Funds is already too high
US policy rates should fall by 100bp, since we estimate 'neutral' Fed Funds at 1.5%


Hello The End? Why US Rates Could Fall Back to 1.5%

<ul>
<li>
Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year</li>
<li>Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit</li>
<li>
Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly liquidity-sensitive</li>
<li>2019 should see Global Liquidity rebound, and this may pull-up crypto-currencies?</li>
</ul>



Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year
Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit

Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly liquidity-sensitive
2019 should see Global Liquidity rebound, and this may pull-up crypto-currencies?


2019: The Year When Crypto-Assets Boom ... Again?

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

<ul>
<li>Plunging Global Liquidity can explain a lot and not least flattening yield curves and skidding equity prices</li>
<li>Digging deeper, bond term premia data signal upcoming US recession and further confirm the yield curve slope’s bearish message</li>
<li>US interest rates have likely peaked, judging from how term premia typically perform over time</li>
<li>US yield curve should steepen through 2019, indicating easier liquidity conditions and paving the way for a market rebound later next year</li>
<li>
Asian markets may bottom earlier, given possible USD weakness, so marking this out as an ‘average’ length bear market
 
</li>
</ul>


Plunging Global Liquidity can explain a lot and not least flattening yield curves and skidding equity prices
Digging deeper, bond term premia data signal upcoming US recession and further confirm the yield curve slope’s bearish message
US interest rates have likely peaked, judging from how term premia typically perform over time
US yield curve should steepen through 2019, indicating easier liquidity conditions and paving the way for a market rebound later next year

Asian markets may bottom earlier, given possible USD weakness, so marking this out as an ‘average’ length bear market
 



Does The Flat US Yield Curve Really Matter?

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the global economy dominated markets on Tuesday. However, the Fed has softened its tone, the US and China have restarted negotiations,  Pro-EU members of the UK parliament appear to have gained ascendancy, and Italy is trying harder to reach a budget accord with the EU.  There seems more reason for US, UK, EU and Asian asset markets to recover rather than falter.

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the global economy dominated markets on Tuesday. However, the Fed has softened its tone, the US and China have restarted negotiations,  Pro-EU members of the UK parliament appear to have gained ascendancy, and Italy is trying harder to reach a budget accord with the EU.  There seems more reason for US, UK, EU and Asian asset markets to recover rather than falter.

Pro-EU Side Gains Ascendancy in UK Parliament

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Hello The End? Why US Rates Could Fall Back to 1.5%

Latest US rate hike to 2.5% looks 'over-done' Crashing Global Liquidity and skidding markets tell us policy is too tight Evidencing the large...

Michael J. Howell

2019: The Year When Crypto-Assets Boom ... Again?

Crypto-assets have plunged by over 80% this year Tight Global Liquidity looks like the major culprit Crypto-assets, like gold, are highly...

Michael J. Howell

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due...

Greg Gibbs

Does The Flat US Yield Curve Really Matter?

Plunging Global Liquidity can explain a lot and not least flattening yield curves and skidding equity prices Digging deeper, bond term premia data...

Michael J. Howell

Pro-EU Side Gains Ascendancy in UK Parliament

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)