Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX developments.</li><li>Our models continue to signal weakness ahead for the JPY.</li><li>Even a move to 1% in the YCC-curve control has NOT allowed the BoJ to become less interventionist.</li></ul>

Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX developments.Our models continue to signal weakness ahead for the JPY.Even a move to 1% in the YCC-curve control has NOT allowed the BoJ to become less interventionist.

FX Nugget: What Policy Normalization? The BoJ Is as Interventionist as Ever….

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.</li>
<li>ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.</li>
<li>The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. </li>
</ul>


'Bidenomics' investment subsidies aided the 7.7%QoQsaar growth in business investment in Q2CY23, delaying the onset of recession. Policy rate to stay near 5.5% until Q2CY24, thereby restraining growth until then.
ECB and BoE face less pressure to raise rates amid easing headline inflation, so yield differentials will strengthen USD; the latter will be a drag on net exports in H2CY23.
The spending restraints agreed in May'23 kick in from Oct'23, and will be a drag on aggregate demand from Q4CY23, the quarter a mild recession is likely to begin. 


'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and then the BRICS meeting in South Africa.</li><li>First of all, let’s try to unwrap the latest European gift to Ukraine:The F16s are no gamechanger in current numbersAs mentioned several times in this space, the Ukranian summer offensive has halted mainly due to a lack of air superiority.</li><li>It’s simply too hard to break through heavily fortified Russian positions without air bombardment and close air support.</li></ul>

Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and then the BRICS meeting in South Africa.First of all, let’s try to unwrap the latest European gift to Ukraine:The F16s are no gamechanger in current numbersAs mentioned several times in this space, the Ukranian summer offensive has halted mainly due to a lack of air superiority.It’s simply too hard to break through heavily fortified Russian positions without air bombardment and close air support.

Great Game: Will F16s destroy Russia? Will BRICS destroy the USD?

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way.</li>
<li>One nugget, one chart – and only very few words!</li>
<li>Nugget 1: USDCNY decides risk assets from here. The USDCNY is the most critical global bellwether at this juncture and the path ahead for risk assets is dependent on the PBoC now.</li>
</ul>


Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way.
One nugget, one chart – and only very few words!
Nugget 1: USDCNY decides risk assets from here. The USDCNY is the most critical global bellwether at this juncture and the path ahead for risk assets is dependent on the PBoC now.


FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The USD is trading generally softer so far today after four consecutive daily gains that have taken the DXY index to test its 200-day MA.</li><li>That benchmark is holding for a third consecutive day and a lower closer on the session today would give the charts an obviously more negative look.</li><li>Still, firm US Retail Sales data yesterday add to signs that the US economy continues to move along at a very decent clip. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The USD is trading generally softer so far today after four consecutive daily gains that have taken the DXY index to test its 200-day MA.That benchmark is holding for a third consecutive day and a lower closer on the session today would give the charts an obviously more negative look.Still, firm US Retail Sales data yesterday add to signs that the US economy continues to move along at a very decent clip. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Slips Back, GBP Outperforms on CPI

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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FX Nugget: What Policy Normalization? The BoJ Is as Interventionist as Ever….

Markets are stuck in a discussion on the JPY this morning as BoJ governor Ueda and PM Kishida held a meeting allegedly discussing FX...

Steno Research

'Bidenomics' Delays Recession, but USD Rebound & Fiscal Reins Are Tipping Points

US averts recession before Q4CY23, as Bidenomics is buoying investment. Strong USD helped in H1 but will be a drag in H2CY23. Fiscal spending reins...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Great Game: Will F16s destroy Russia? Will BRICS destroy the USD?

Welcome to this week’s Great Game which will focus on two hot current topics and how to understand them – first the F16 donations to Ukraine and...

Steno Research

FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch

Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way. One nugget,...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Slips Back, GBP Outperforms on CPI

The USD is trading generally softer so far today after four consecutive daily gains that have taken the DXY index to test its 200-day MA.

Scotiabank

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