Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.</li><li>The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.</li><li>The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.</li></ul>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

<ul>
<li>The market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, but the data does not fully support this expectation.</li>
<li>The dollar has performed well this week, and further upside is plausible due to low-grade US exceptionalism and underwhelming global economic data.</li>
<li>The focus on the Fed and US rates is important, but the non-US side should not be overlooked, as there is a stark difference in initial conditions between the US and other G7 rate curves. The rate differentials could lead to a convergence with the US catching up to other rate curves, resulting in a volatile and high-impact dollar trend.</li>
</ul>
This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.


The market is pricing in aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, but the data does not fully support this expectation.
The dollar has performed well this week, and further upside is plausible due to low-grade US exceptionalism and underwhelming global economic data.
The focus on the Fed and US rates is important, but the non-US side should not be overlooked, as there is a stark difference in initial conditions between the US and other G7 rate curves. The rate differentials could lead to a convergence with the US catching up to other rate curves, resulting in a volatile and high-impact dollar trend.

This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Something’s Starting to Give

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>While the January data round for the US got off to a poor start yesterday, with a much weaker than expected Empire Manufacturing Survey, the USD barely flinched.</li><li>Higher US yields and supportive comments from the Fed’s Waller—who at the very least sounded in no rush to cut rates—helped keep the USD supported.</li><li>The USD is firmer today but has edged off earlier highs versus the majors. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

While the January data round for the US got off to a poor start yesterday, with a much weaker than expected Empire Manufacturing Survey, the USD barely flinched.Higher US yields and supportive comments from the Fed’s Waller—who at the very least sounded in no rush to cut rates—helped keep the USD supported.The USD is firmer today but has edged off earlier highs versus the majors. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - Weak Risk Mood Adds to USD Support

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Since the last publication, the XCCY basis market has experienced a year-end turn, which turned out to be a bit different than prior years.</li><li>Some of the highlights were, USD trading almost without any turn-price and the usual low level for SEK basis was only a fraction of what we were used to see.</li><li>In the last part of 2023 EUR/USD basis trended higher and higher and ended the year at historical high levels.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Since the last publication, the XCCY basis market has experienced a year-end turn, which turned out to be a bit different than prior years.Some of the highlights were, USD trading almost without any turn-price and the usual low level for SEK basis was only a fraction of what we were used to see.In the last part of 2023 EUR/USD basis trended higher and higher and ended the year at historical high levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The ECB is pushing back against aggressive rate cut expectations.</li><li>Several ECB Governing Council (GC) members have spoken against early rate cuts recently and today ECB President Lagarde joined the chorus.</li><li>In a Bloomberg interview, she said she would expect a rate cut this summer, but risks would be going too fast and having to come back to more tightening and thus having wasted all the efforts over the last 15 months.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The ECB is pushing back against aggressive rate cut expectations.Several ECB Governing Council (GC) members have spoken against early rate cuts recently and today ECB President Lagarde joined the chorus.In a Bloomberg interview, she said she would expect a rate cut this summer, but risks would be going too fast and having to come back to more tightening and thus having wasted all the efforts over the last 15 months.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.

At Any Rate

Global FX: Something’s Starting to Give

Overall, the article suggests that while the dollar has performed well recently, there are factors such as the lack of global dynamics and...

At Any Rate

FX Daily - Weak Risk Mood Adds to USD Support

While the January data round for the US got off to a poor start yesterday, with a much weaker than expected Empire Manufacturing Survey, the USD...

Scotiabank

Nordea XCCY Publication: Q1-2024

Since the last publication, the XCCY basis market has experienced a year-end turn, which turned out to be a bit different than prior years.

Nordea

EUR Rates: Pushing Back

Several ECB Governing Council (GC) members have spoken against early rate cuts recently and today ECB President Lagarde joined the chorus.

Nordea

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