Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by the Fed.</li><li>The SLOOS improves further from Q4 to Q1, and especially the supply side has eased quite a bit and is almost back in neutral territory.</li><li>The rebound in demand is underwhelming, but it also typically lags supply/financial conditions by another quarter, meaning that Q2 is the likely big rebound in loan demand.</li></ul>

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by the Fed.The SLOOS improves further from Q4 to Q1, and especially the supply side has eased quite a bit and is almost back in neutral territory.The rebound in demand is underwhelming, but it also typically lags supply/financial conditions by another quarter, meaning that Q2 is the likely big rebound in loan demand.

SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

<ul><li>Welcome to our Energy/EIA watch; we continue to see extraordinary strong demand for energy in the US, but weaker demand in Europe and China.</li><li>Meanwhile, the situation worsens in the Red Sea.</li><li>Oman begins an investigation into the hijacking of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman as Iran’s semi-state agency Tasnim confirmed that Iran was behind the hijacking.</li></ul>

Welcome to our Energy/EIA watch; we continue to see extraordinary strong demand for energy in the US, but weaker demand in Europe and China.Meanwhile, the situation worsens in the Red Sea.Oman begins an investigation into the hijacking of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman as Iran’s semi-state agency Tasnim confirmed that Iran was behind the hijacking.

Energy Watch: Red Sea Situation Is Worsening with Spill-Overs to Energy

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Takeaways up front:One Russian tanker passing through the Suez. Commodities and energy looking interesting given global macro</li><li>The demand side in crude is still dominating. We question whether the Houthi aggression is a lone wolf.</li><li>We’ll start this week’s newsletter where we left off last week and touch upon the latest action in the Red Sea.</li></ul>

Takeaways up front:One Russian tanker passing through the Suez. Commodities and energy looking interesting given global macroThe demand side in crude is still dominating. We question whether the Houthi aggression is a lone wolf.We’ll start this week’s newsletter where we left off last week and touch upon the latest action in the Red Sea.

Energy Cable #52: Suez Troubles or a Houthi peace deal with Shipping companies?

<ul><li>Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.</li><li>This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.</li><li>During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.</li></ul>

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

SLOOS Survey: The US Economy Is Re-Accelerating and Money Growth Is Back!

The demand- and supply for money has bottomed out! That is the overwhelming conclusion from the quarterly survey on banking standards released by...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: Red Sea Situation Is Worsening with Spill-Overs to Energy

Welcome to our Energy/EIA watch,We continue to see extraordinary strong demand for energy in the US, but weaker demand in Europe and...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #52: Suez Troubles or a Houthi peace deal with Shipping companies?

Takeaways up front:One Russian tanker passing through the SuezCommodities and energy looking interesting given global macroThe demand side in...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.

Steno Research

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