Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.</li>
<li>We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.</li>
<li>Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.</li>
</ul>


Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning overview.
We’ve been working on some new ways to look at positioning data across asset classes, and we’ll share some of the inaugural charts in today’s piece and will extend them, week by week.
Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate cut expectations becoming even more embedded after the hawkish US CPI surprise last Thursday – strange move, and we’ll be surprised if probabilities don’t reverse within the next couple of price data points.


Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

<ul><li>Welcome to our Energy/EIA watch; we continue to see extraordinary strong demand for energy in the US, but weaker demand in Europe and China.</li><li>Meanwhile, the situation worsens in the Red Sea.</li><li>Oman begins an investigation into the hijacking of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman as Iran’s semi-state agency Tasnim confirmed that Iran was behind the hijacking.</li></ul>

Welcome to our Energy/EIA watch; we continue to see extraordinary strong demand for energy in the US, but weaker demand in Europe and China.Meanwhile, the situation worsens in the Red Sea.Oman begins an investigation into the hijacking of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman as Iran’s semi-state agency Tasnim confirmed that Iran was behind the hijacking.

Energy Watch: Red Sea Situation Is Worsening with Spill-Overs to Energy

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Takeaways up front:One Russian tanker passing through the Suez. Commodities and energy looking interesting given global macro</li><li>The demand side in crude is still dominating. We question whether the Houthi aggression is a lone wolf.</li><li>We’ll start this week’s newsletter where we left off last week and touch upon the latest action in the Red Sea.</li></ul>

Takeaways up front:One Russian tanker passing through the Suez. Commodities and energy looking interesting given global macroThe demand side in crude is still dominating. We question whether the Houthi aggression is a lone wolf.We’ll start this week’s newsletter where we left off last week and touch upon the latest action in the Red Sea.

Energy Cable #52: Suez Troubles or a Houthi peace deal with Shipping companies?

<ul><li>Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.</li><li>This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.</li><li>During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.</li></ul>

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.This is (again) reminiscent of the 2006-2007 pause when the Fed allowed financial conditions to ease materially in the run-up to the recession.During a hiking cycle, loads and loads of USDs are parked in cash-like setups due to a sudden better relative yield premium in almost risk-free structures.

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

<ul><li>Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.</li><li>But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?</li><li>We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.</li></ul>

Markets are pricing in heavy cuts for next year as inflation keeps coming in soft, making a soft landing the base case for the bulls, but everything comes at a price.But how are assets likely to perform if the market narrative is correct and yields will indeed come down in a continued bull-steepening fashion, which in our view is the most likely scenario in H1 2024?We have pulled out some of our cross-asset beta studies from our data-library to provide you with an overview of how assets perform during various yield curve regimes.

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

Positioning Watch – Where to Find Value Currently

Markets have more or less traded sideways since the start of the year, as the risk-on party has taken a bit of a breather it seems, despite rate...

Steno Research

Energy Watch: Red Sea Situation Is Worsening with Spill-Overs to Energy

Welcome to our Energy/EIA watch,We continue to see extraordinary strong demand for energy in the US, but weaker demand in Europe and...

Steno Research

Energy Cable #52: Suez Troubles or a Houthi peace deal with Shipping companies?

Takeaways up front:One Russian tanker passing through the SuezCommodities and energy looking interesting given global macroThe demand side in...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #78 – Santa Powell Handing Out Gifts Even to the Naughty!

Powell invited for a yuuuge risk asset party this week by allowing the market to continue to chase the narrative of material rate cuts in 2024.

Steno Research

Bull Steepening Watch – Is Lower Yields Really What Risk Assets Want?

Let’s run through each asset class to see where to put your eggs if a bull-steepening of the yield curve continues into 2024.

Steno Research

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