Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TotalEnergies' robust hydrocarbon production in Q2 2024 will be offset by lower gas realizations and refining margins.</li>
<li>Higher utilisation rates are expected to partially mitigate reduced refining margins in Europe and the Middle East.</li>
<li>Seasonal factors are expected to lower the Integrated Power segment's adjusted net operating income by 18.2% QoQ to USD 500 million.</li>
</ul>


TotalEnergies' robust hydrocarbon production in Q2 2024 will be offset by lower gas realizations and refining margins.
Higher utilisation rates are expected to partially mitigate reduced refining margins in Europe and the Middle East.
Seasonal factors are expected to lower the Integrated Power segment's adjusted net operating income by 18.2% QoQ to USD 500 million.


TotalEnergies Hits Roadblock with Lower Gas Prices and Refining Margins

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs</li>
<li>The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” </li>
<li>Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform</li>
</ul>


As equity indices take a wobble again the Oil price has remained strong after posting both bullish weekly monthly close to new trend highs
The relationship between Oil &amp; stocks is in question because it is unclear whether a higher Oil price in an already inflationary environment is seen as “good” or “bad” 
Even in the case that the S&amp;P 500 holds up and becomes correlated properly to Oil, the charts below suggest it will still underperform


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Srinidhi Raghavendra

<ul>
<li>NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal hurricane season (Jun to Nov), with 17-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).</li>
<li>Oil prices plunge 1.6% before and then rises 2.4% in the ten days after weather shock. Crude oil IV rises 8.7% in 10-days before and 10-days after the weather shock.</li>
<li>Hurricanes impact offshore oil production &amp; refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which accounts for 14% of total US crude production and 48% of US refinery capacity.</li>
</ul>


NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal hurricane season (Jun to Nov), with 17-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).
Oil prices plunge 1.6% before and then rises 2.4% in the ten days after weather shock. Crude oil IV rises 8.7% in 10-days before and 10-days after the weather shock.
Hurricanes impact offshore oil production &amp; refinery operations in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), which accounts for 14% of total US crude production and 48% of US refinery capacity.


Rough Hurricane Season to Fuel Rollercoaster Rides in US Energy Markets

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen! We’ll take a look at freight rates, copper, and crude from an inflation angle.</li><li>But before we do that, let’s have a quick look at Henry Hub.</li><li>The front-month Henry Hub natural gas prices continue to face downward pressure, primarily influenced by an abundance in gas stock levels.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen! We’ll take a look at freight rates, copper, and crude from an inflation angle.But before we do that, let’s have a quick look at Henry Hub.The front-month Henry Hub natural gas prices continue to face downward pressure, primarily influenced by an abundance in gas stock levels.

Energy Cable: Increases in freight rates not transferring into goods inflation (for now)

United States

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The ETF tracks the performance of the Energy Select Sector Index.  The ETF holds large-cap U.S. energy stocks. It invests in companies that  develop & produce crude oil & natural gas, provide drilling and other energy related services. The holdings are weighted by market capitalization.

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Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE US)

TotalEnergies Hits Roadblock with Lower Gas Prices and Refining Margins

Lower gas realisations and refining margins to eat up gains from healthy hydrocarbon production in Q2. Revenue expected to rise YoY and QoQ, but...

Mint Finance

Long-Short Trades: Oil Versus Stocks

Despite the volatility in equity markets, the Oil price remains in a strong uptrend as is break higher. The relationship is questionable in this...

Shyam Devani

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

Rough Hurricane Season to Fuel Rollercoaster Rides in US Energy Markets

NOAA predicts above-normal hurricane season. They impact oil production & refinery ops in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for 14% of total US...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable: Increases in freight rates not transferring into goods inflation (for now)

Greetings from Copenhagen! We’ll take a look at freight rates, copper, and crude from an inflation angle. But before we do that, let’s have a...

Steno Research

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