Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Crude oil (WTI) met our 84/85 rally projection and stall zone with 80 initial support in what is viewed as a pullback to buy for a new high that will then become stretched where a bigger top is due.Immediate trendline support under pressure in line with a pullback sequence.RSI rising wedge support break warns of a pullback but the lack of divergence calls for buying a corrective sequence (bull conviction).A new high near the 2013-14 congestion zone shows risk of an intermediate top zone in December.

Crude oil (WTI) met our 84/85 rally projection and stall zone with 80 initial support in what is viewed as a pullback to buy for a new high that will then become stretched where a bigger top is due.Immediate trendline support under pressure in line with a pullback sequence.RSI rising wedge support break warns of a pullback but the lack of divergence calls for buying a corrective sequence (bull conviction).A new high near the 2013-14 congestion zone shows risk of an intermediate top zone in December.

Crude Buy Support/New High and Bigger Top

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Crude slid 2% from multi-year highs after Iran agreed to resume nuclear talks</li>
<li>It will be a long road to a deal but oil price response was typical of speculative froth</li>
<li>Iran could boost crude supply by up to 1.3 million b/d, but likely not all at once </li>
<li>Supply hike won’t be in time to allay concerns over worsening winter energy crisis</li>
<li>Coal, gas shortages may gradually ease in coming weeks, preventing crude rebound</li>
<li>OPEC+ will find it tough to tighten reins in 2022, setting the stage for softer prices</li>
</ul>


Crude slid 2% from multi-year highs after Iran agreed to resume nuclear talks
It will be a long road to a deal but oil price response was typical of speculative froth
Iran could boost crude supply by up to 1.3 million b/d, but likely not all at once 
Supply hike won’t be in time to allay concerns over worsening winter energy crisis
Coal, gas shortages may gradually ease in coming weeks, preventing crude rebound
OPEC+ will find it tough to tighten reins in 2022, setting the stage for softer prices


Prospect of Iran Deal Becomes an Unlikely but Sticky Cap on Crude's Rally

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

The rally in the Oil price since the end of August has already met it’s $85 target two weeks ago. Overhead there are numerous levels that converge just below $90 including the major high seen in 2018Having effectively tested that 2018 level at $86.74 this week (the high was $86.70) we have come off and are now in line for a bearish weekly reversal at the trend highs - Friday’s closing price will be important.Given the broad crisis in energy in many parts of the world, it was thought that a cooling off in the Oil price may be seen as a relief of sorts in this market. That however has been negated by the bounce back in natural gas prices. Unfortunately, the indications seen here are still very much pointing to an ongoing crisis.In the near-term watch for a pullback in Oil, the S&amp;P 500 Energy Sector and the European Oil &amp; Gas Sector. However, do not expect these declines to last beyond the short term and do not expect the rise in Natural Gas prices to change.

The rally in the Oil price since the end of August has already met it’s $85 target two weeks ago. Overhead there are numerous levels that converge just below $90 including the major high seen in 2018Having effectively tested that 2018 level at $86.74 this week (the high was $86.70) we have come off and are now in line for a bearish weekly reversal at the trend highs - Friday’s closing price will be important.Given the broad crisis in energy in many parts of the world, it was thought that a cooling off in the Oil price may be seen as a relief of sorts in this market. That however has been negated by the bounce back in natural gas prices. Unfortunately, the indications seen here are still very much pointing to an ongoing crisis.In the near-term watch for a pullback in Oil, the S&amp;P 500 Energy Sector and the European Oil &amp; Gas Sector. However, do not expect these declines to last beyond the short term and do not expect the rise in Natural Gas prices to change.

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and physical resistance at the 53 trendline barrier.This is an undercurrent not apparent in the DXY or USD weakness in Asia (risk-on).USD/BRL macro bullish flat may need more time but is setting up for a macro USD breakout higher. USD/ZAR bull triangle also taking shape.EEM relative chart due to break lower vs SPX and must see varying degrees of USD strength that will stems from BRL and ZAR sensitivity.

In recent weeks, we have said the following about crude’s energy crisis rally:<ul type="circle">
<li>Crude is riding on the coattails of gas and coal shortages and price spikes.</li>
<li>A colder-than-normal winter would be the fervent wish of punters who have amassed length in the energy markets but can’t be promised beyond a reasonable degree of probability by the best of weather forecasters.</li>
<li>There could be a lot of speculative froth in crude, thanks to its extensive suite of derivatives products, serving as a proxy for the relatively sparse coal and gas markets.</li>
</ul>We stand by all of it. But one thing has changed in our perspective in recent days: We have suspended disbelief in crude’s incessant rally.All the potential pressure relief valves remain shut and it is increasingly looking like the energy crunch could drag on for weeks. Even if a milder winter provides some relief, it may be temporary and localised, except in the unlikely event of warmer weather across all of the northern hemisphere. Markets don’t always follow logic. Especially when they are being driven by sentiment, speculation and frenzy. Better buckle up for a continuing wild ride!

In recent weeks, we have said the following about crude’s energy crisis rally:
Crude is riding on the coattails of gas and coal shortages and price spikes.
A colder-than-normal winter would be the fervent wish of punters who have amassed length in the energy markets but can’t be promised beyond a reasonable degree of probability by the best of weather forecasters.
There could be a lot of speculative froth in crude, thanks to its extensive suite of derivatives products, serving as a proxy for the relatively sparse coal and gas markets.
We stand by all of it. But one thing has changed in our perspective in recent days: We have suspended disbelief in crude’s incessant rally.All the potential pressure relief valves remain shut and it is increasingly looking like the energy crunch could drag on for weeks. Even if a milder winter provides some relief, it may be temporary and localised, except in the unlikely event of warmer weather across all of the northern hemisphere. Markets don’t always follow logic. Especially when they are being driven by sentiment, speculation and frenzy. Better buckle up for a continuing wild ride!

Weekly Oil Views: Prolonged Energy Crisis May Sustain Crude's Bullish Juggernaut

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Crude Buy Support/New High and Bigger Top

Crude oil (WTI) met our 84/85 rally projection and stall zone with 80 initial support in what is viewed as a pullback to buy for a new high that...

Thomas Schroeder

Prospect of Iran Deal Becomes an Unlikely but Sticky Cap on Crude's Rally

Crude's sell-off on news of Iran and world powers planning to resume nuclear deal talks has no support in fundamentals but the rally, now...

Vandana Hari

A Crude Update

Having met the topside target, Brent Crude is now in line for a bearish weekly reversal. Watch Friday's close. While a correction down on Oil seems...

Shyam Devani

TRY Bleed into EEM

We are finding some interesting synergy between a stronger USD/TRY bleeding into EM FX that would align with our bearish EEM relative triangle and...

Thomas Schroeder

Weekly Oil Views: Prolonged Energy Crisis May Sustain Crude's Bullish Juggernaut

We have suspended disbelief in crude's rally on the coattails of the coal and gas crunch wracking global energy markets. Prices may continue...

Vandana Hari

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