Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Despite a strong start, WTI prices fell 1.7% for the week ending 30/Aug, as demand concerns outweighed the worries of supply disruptions in Libya. </li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.72 from 1.13 the week prior as put volume increased 45.6% WoW while call volume declined 4.5%.</li>
<li>WTI OI PCR increased to 0.78 (30/Aug) from 0.75 (23/Aug) as call OI rose 4.5% WoW and put OI increased by 8%. </li>
</ul>


Despite a strong start, WTI prices fell 1.7% for the week ending 30/Aug, as demand concerns outweighed the worries of supply disruptions in Libya. 
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.72 from 1.13 the week prior as put volume increased 45.6% WoW while call volume declined 4.5%.
WTI OI PCR increased to 0.78 (30/Aug) from 0.75 (23/Aug) as call OI rose 4.5% WoW and put OI increased by 8%. 


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/35] WTI Crude Oil on a Downward Trend as Demand Concerns Persist

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by two to 583 for the week ending 30/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the third straight week.</li>
<li>The US oil rig count remained unchanged at 483 for the second consecutive week. Meanwhile, gas rigs declined by two to 95, marking their lowest level since April 2021.</li>
<li>For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude oil production declined to 13.3m bpd bpd, down from the record high of 13.4m bpd reached the previous week.</li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by two to 583 for the week ending 30/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the third straight week.
The US oil rig count remained unchanged at 483 for the second consecutive week. Meanwhile, gas rigs declined by two to 95, marking their lowest level since April 2021.
For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude oil production declined to 13.3m bpd bpd, down from the record high of 13.4m bpd reached the previous week.


US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week Led by a Decline in Gas Rigs

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 846k barrels, while analysts expected a 2.7 mb drawdown. Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected, while distillate inventories unexpectedly rose.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 23/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 33 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.1% above the 5-year seasonal average</li>
<li>Exxon expects global crude oil demand to remain around 100m bpd through 2050. Brokerages lowered target prices on Occidental and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 23/Aug, US crude inventories fell by 846k barrels, while analysts expected a 2.7 mb drawdown. Gasoline stocks dropped more than expected, while distillate inventories unexpectedly rose.
US natural gas inventories rise 35 bcf for the week ending 23/Aug, exceeding analyst expectations of a 33 bcf buildup. Inventories are 12.1% above the 5-year seasonal average
Exxon expects global crude oil demand to remain around 100m bpd through 2050. Brokerages lowered target prices on Occidental and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/35] Crude Oil Slips Amid Demand Concerns; Nat-Gas Under Pressure from Oversupply

<ul>
<li>US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 585 for the week ending 23/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the second straight week.</li>
<li>US oil rig count was unchanged at 483, after falling by two the week prior. Gas rigs fell by one to 97, after rising by one the previous week.</li>
<li>For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude oil production rose back to its record high of 13.4m bpd, after slipping down to 13.3m bpd the week prior.  </li>
</ul>


US oil and gas rig count fell by one to 585 for the week ending 23/Aug, marking a decline in rig count for the second straight week.
US oil rig count was unchanged at 483, after falling by two the week prior. Gas rigs fell by one to 97, after rising by one the previous week.
For the week ending 16/Aug, US crude oil production rose back to its record high of 13.4m bpd, after slipping down to 13.3m bpd the week prior.  


US Rig Count Drops for Second Consecutive Week as Gas Rigs Dip

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as $SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy $XLE to Underweight; WTI Crude Oil Breakdown. Still expecting more downside. $XLB...

Vermilion Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/35] WTI Crude Oil on a Downward Trend as Demand Concerns Persist

WTI prices closed lower for the third consecutive week as demand concerns outweighed supply disruptions. For the week ending 30/Aug, the Put/Call...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Falls for the Third Straight Week Led by a Decline in Gas Rigs

For the week ending 30/Aug, US rig count fell by 2 to 583. Oil rig count stayed flat again while the gas rig count fell to its lowest since April...

Mint Finance

[ETP 2024/35] Crude Oil Slips Amid Demand Concerns; Nat-Gas Under Pressure from Oversupply

Weak U.S. crude withdrawal heightens demand concerns, while Libya and Israel-Hamas supply risks offer support. Exxon sees strong oil demand until...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Drops for Second Consecutive Week as Gas Rigs Dip

For the week ending 23/Aug, the US rig count fell by 1 to 585. Oil rig count stayed flat while the gas rig count fell by 1. US crude output inched...

Mint Finance

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