Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.</li>
<li>Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.</li>
<li>SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).</li>
</ul>


Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).


Public Service Enterprise Group Inc (PEG US)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Crude Oil

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight