Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical and Quantitative Research

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.</li>
<li>Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.</li>
<li>At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.</li>
</ul>


Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it's likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.


Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP US)

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Public Storage

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow