Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis., Vanda Insights

Vandana Hari

Founder & CEO. Oil markets macro-analysis.

Vanda Insights

Vanda Insights is a Singapore-based boutique provider of intelligence on the global energy markets, launched in September 2016. The venture was born out of a desire to extract the signal from the noise in the complex and often volatile oil markets. Our succinct and clear macro analysis is relied upon by thousands of readers globally, including those doing business directly or indirectly in the physical commodity and derivatives markets; wealth managers; governments, regulatory bodies and think-tanks; as well as trade organizations and educational institutions.

Global Energy Markets

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Brent vaulted above the $100 mark early Thursday as Russia pushed troops into eastern Ukraine.</li>
<li>The worst-case scenario for exacerbating oil and gas markets tightness has begun to unfold, which means the rally could go further unless diplomacy is revived.</li>
<li>Mitigating tools and resources -- OPEC+ spare capacity, potential Iran deal, SPR releases -- are severely limited. </li>
</ul>


Brent vaulted above the $100 mark early Thursday as Russia pushed troops into eastern Ukraine.
The worst-case scenario for exacerbating oil and gas markets tightness has begun to unfold, which means the rally could go further unless diplomacy is revived.
Mitigating tools and resources -- OPEC+ spare capacity, potential Iran deal, SPR releases -- are severely limited. 


Quick Views: Crude's Rally on Ukraine Crisis May Have Further to Go

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>WTI is undergoing a topping building process at the top of the rising resistance on the back of RSI top building amid bear divergence.</li>
<li>Call is was to unwind long near 94 and transition into a short into late Feb. Russia risk may still have one more push.</li>
<li>Compelling weekly cycle bear pattern with very mature divergence sets the stage for a macro bear cycle in oil.</li>
</ul>


WTI is undergoing a topping building process at the top of the rising resistance on the back of RSI top building amid bear divergence.
Call is was to unwind long near 94 and transition into a short into late Feb. Russia risk may still have one more push.
Compelling weekly cycle bear pattern with very mature divergence sets the stage for a macro bear cycle in oil.


Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets, SAV Markets

Shyam Devani

Founder & Chief Market Strategist - SAV Markets

Provide Comprehensive Analysis & Commentary

SAV Markets

SAV Markets aims to provide comprehensive analysis & commentary on foreign exchange and asset markets. The approach is multi asset as markets are typically interlinked. Cause and effect are always at work, even if those effects take time to manifest. As nothing is permanent we strive to get ahead of the curve in an ever changing world.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The quick rise in Oil now shows a market that is running out of steam in the short term and is at risk of correcting down</li>
<li>This is unlikely to change the underlying trend of higher prices but instead create an opportunity down the line to establish longs</li>
<li>Similarly, the rise in yields is likely to see a pullback before higher yields later. The trade idea at the end of related to this.</li>
</ul>


The quick rise in Oil now shows a market that is running out of steam in the short term and is at risk of correcting down
This is unlikely to change the underlying trend of higher prices but instead create an opportunity down the line to establish longs
Similarly, the rise in yields is likely to see a pullback before higher yields later. The trade idea at the end of related to this.


<ul>
<li>A growing Ukraine fear premium has propelled crude to successive fresh seven-year highs in since the last week of January.</li>
<li>We expect the upward pressure on oil from the impasse to sustain in the near-term, leading to a mildly bullish view.</li>
<li>Our base case is a de-escalation of the Ukraine crisis in the coming weeks and the loss of fear premium, leading to a mildly bearish view for H2 Feb-Mar.</li>
</ul>


A growing Ukraine fear premium has propelled crude to successive fresh seven-year highs in since the last week of January.
We expect the upward pressure on oil from the impasse to sustain in the near-term, leading to a mildly bullish view.
Our base case is a de-escalation of the Ukraine crisis in the coming weeks and the loss of fear premium, leading to a mildly bearish view for H2 Feb-Mar.


Vanda Insights Bulls & Bears: Near- And Short-Term View on Oil Prices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

China Petroleum & Chemical / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, <em>but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns</em>.</li>
<li>We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.</li>
<li>We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Int'l Compass (Jan. 27) we highlighted that the broad global indexes were breaking down, but that we were watching for potential false breakdowns.
We are now getting those false breakdowns as major levels have been reclaimed; we view this as a net positive.
We continue to see select areas that are attractive (namely cyclical value and defensive Sectors) and we expect markets to remain mixed.


False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Quick Views: Crude's Rally on Ukraine Crisis May Have Further to Go

Brent has vaulted well above $100 after Putin moved Russian troops into eastern Ukraine. The worst-case scenario for the oil markets in the Ukraine...

Vandana Hari

Oil High Degree Top Building

WTI is undergoing a topping building process at the top of the rising resistance on the back of RSI top building amid bear divergence.

Thomas Schroeder

Oil & Yields – Time to Correct

the trend up in Oil and on US yields is tired and should see a corrective phase in the near term before the underlying trends resume again over time

Shyam Devani

Vanda Insights Bulls & Bears: Near- And Short-Term View on Oil Prices

The Ukraine fear premium could sustain upward pressure on crude prices in the coming days, but we expect a de-escalation of the situation by H2 Feb...

Vandana Hari

False Breakdowns on Global MSCI Indexes as the US Dollar Weakens; Ideas Within Energy & Financials

Global sovereign bond yields remain on an upward trajectory, with 10-year yields hitting multi-year highs this week in many countries; we expect...

Vermilion Research

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