Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?</li><li>Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.</li><li>We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.</li></ul>

Recently the MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation went back to its 2022 levels, so is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala summer 2022 again?Then just short the long end of the curve given the resilient US economy, BoJ’s YCC hikes and a procyclical fiscal policy in the US.We see this scenario as one in which high duration generation Y &amp; Z assets get hammered and the boomer trade is en vogue.

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.</li><li>The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.</li><li>Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.</li></ul>

Hope you’re enjoying the weekend out there! Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility with the CPI report released this Thursday along with bonds remaining indecisive about the future market direction.The overall sentiment this week again has optimism written all over it with equity sentiment still hovering at 2021 highs on some of the short-term indicators, and GBP and EUR are continuing their positioning resilience, while commodity markets are starting to signal weaker demand again after a couple of weeks of strength.Follow along as we dissect market sentiment and positioning data below.

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.</li><li>It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.</li><li>I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.</li></ul>

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to converging pressures.It is essential to embrace the diversity in the EM space here.I have been advocating throughout the early spring that EM’s were ahead and would be the first rate-cutters in this cycle and the LatAm carry trade will likely take in water in the aftermath – while the rate cuts have largely aligned with my expectations (which preceded market pricing I might add), the punishment in foreign exchange has been harsher and quicker than I anticipated.

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

<ul>
<li>As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.</li>
<li>From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.</li>
<li> Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?</li>
</ul>


As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling.
From our portfolio, you will also know that we have been moving towards a boomer composition and in the following short note we’ll try to support that thesis.
 Why would the curve slope back our boomer position?


Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.</li><li>This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.</li><li>Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.</li></ul>

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

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Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Commodity Watch: Alternatives to Betting Directly on the Curve

With MOVE and 10 year yield 3m rolling correlation back to its 2022 levels, is it time for a cocktail of a rates volatility wrecking ball ala...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Chinese Disappointment Is Written All over the Latest Positioning

Weekends provide the perfect opportunity to review the market’s performance over the past week – and this week has again been full of volatility...

Steno Research

EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts

As we engage a pivotal juncture between DM rates approaching peak and China on the verge of descending into deflation, EM Macro is subject to...

Steno Research

Curve Steepeners and the Boomer Trade

As highlighted in our data dive yesterday on the curve we see the steepener case as increasingly compelling. From our portfolio, you will also...

Steno Research

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)