Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The change to the YCC-policy in Japan caught a majority of investors off guard, but so did the subsequent flows and moves in Japanese markets.</li>
<li>We kept reiterating that JGB yield risks were to the upside, while the JPY could see downside, which is exactly what has happened.</li>
<li>In this piece, we will try to elaborate on why that is and why we see a slow grind to 1% in 10yr JGB yields alongside a move in USDJPY to +150 territory.</li>
</ul>


The change to the YCC-policy in Japan caught a majority of investors off guard, but so did the subsequent flows and moves in Japanese markets.
We kept reiterating that JGB yield risks were to the upside, while the JPY could see downside, which is exactly what has happened.
In this piece, we will try to elaborate on why that is and why we see a slow grind to 1% in 10yr JGB yields alongside a move in USDJPY to +150 territory.


Japan Watch: Flows in JPY and JGBs after the YCC decision

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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<ul>
<li>In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.</li>
<li>Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.</li>
<li>Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>


In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels.
Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are labeled as low risk.
Regarding the Russian ruble, it remains in the green territory.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

<ul>
<li>While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. </li>
<li>Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. </li>
<li>The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index further into 'Frenzy' territory.</li>
</ul>


While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. 
Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. 
The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index further into 'Frenzy' territory.


The Weekly Market Monitor (29) - The Moment of Truth?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

<ul><li>Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions and as per usual we will be all over it.</li><li>Goldilocks data keeps coming in but we fear markets may be a bit stretched on risk appetite, and as a result, we have closed our AI FOMO trade today.</li><li>Besides getting out of the AI we have entered a Commodity long, taken profits on USDCNY long, and added a UST steepener.</li></ul>

Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions and as per usual we will be all over it.Goldilocks data keeps coming in but we fear markets may be a bit stretched on risk appetite, and as a result, we have closed our AI FOMO trade today.Besides getting out of the AI we have entered a Commodity long, taken profits on USDCNY long, and added a UST steepener.

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Japan Watch: Flows in JPY and JGBs after the YCC decision

The change to the YCC-policy in Japan caught a majority of investors off guard, but so did the subsequent flows and moves in Japanese markets. We...

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

EM Traffic Light July 2023

In July, we observe a significant decrease in overall risk levels. Currently, there are no currencies labeled as high risk, and 27 currencies are...

Nordea

The Weekly Market Monitor (29) - The Moment of Truth?

The US labor market remains uncomfortably tight, keeping bond yields high, providing massive pressure on overvalued Big Tech stocks to deliver on...

Jeroen Blokland

Portfolio Watch: Timing the Beta Exit

Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch! Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions

Steno Research

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