Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.</li><li>These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?</li><li>The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.</li></ul>

Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

<ul><li>Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.</li><li>Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.</li><li><span style="font-weight: 400;">Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.</span></li></ul>

Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given the current developments out of China.Chinese trends are diverging rapidly both internally and externally—the export sectors are performing well, while internal consumption growth is far from firing on all cylinders.Ahead of the conclusion of the CCP Plenum, we noted that China Daily posted several upbeat stories on the GDP outlook following the release of a slightly disappointing Q2 report.

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way.</li>
<li>One nugget, one chart – and only very few words!</li>
<li>Nugget 1: USDCNY decides risk assets from here. The USDCNY is the most critical global bellwether at this juncture and the path ahead for risk assets is dependent on the PBoC now.</li>
</ul>


Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way.
One nugget, one chart – and only very few words!
Nugget 1: USDCNY decides risk assets from here. The USDCNY is the most critical global bellwether at this juncture and the path ahead for risk assets is dependent on the PBoC now.


FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Qingming holiday sending surpasses  2019 levels on an absolute and per capita basis</li>
<li>A further relaxation of housing measures spurs increased mortgage demand</li>
<li>Two steps forward, one step back -typical signs of a bottoming-out economy.</li>
</ul>


Qingming holiday sending surpasses  2019 levels on an absolute and per capita basis
A further relaxation of housing measures spurs increased mortgage demand
Two steps forward, one step back -typical signs of a bottoming-out economy.


Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

CNY (USDCNY CURNCY)

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given...

Steno Research

FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch

Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way. One nugget,...

Steno Research

Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

Chinese consumer confidence rising as Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

EM Watch: China FLOODS global copper markets amidst the plenum

Good Afternoon from Europe. It’s incredibly hard for me not to begin this weekly EM blog by emphasizing how bearish I am becoming on Copper, given...

Steno Research

FX Nugget: Can the PBoC defy gravity? 7.30 watch

Our new “Nugget” concept is designed to deliver the very best charts and visualizations of key macro topics in a very palatable way. One nugget,...

Steno Research

Chinese Data Continues to Improve Incrementally

Chinese consumer confidence rising as ​Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...

Rikki Malik

Chinese consumer confidence rising as Qingming holiday spending surpasses 2019 levels, and increased mortgage demand seen due to housing measures...