Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have moved up over the last few months though there was a sharp move lower in the last couple of weeks.</li>
<li>With results and dividends scheduled to be announced in the next few weeks, we take a look at the fair value estimate for the 2023 dividend futures.</li>
<li>We also list out the things to watch for over the next few weeks and months that could impact the 2023 dividend futures and the 2023/24 dividend steepener.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI 2023 dividend futures have moved up over the last few months though there was a sharp move lower in the last couple of weeks.
With results and dividends scheduled to be announced in the next few weeks, we take a look at the fair value estimate for the 2023 dividend futures.
We also list out the things to watch for over the next few weeks and months that could impact the 2023 dividend futures and the 2023/24 dividend steepener.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value Estimates as Result Season Looms

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Asian Dollar Index is down (US Dollar up) 1.7% from 1st -13th February.</li><li>After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during the same period in February.</li><li>The Bloomberg Dollar index is up 1.78%, and the DXY index is up 2.57%.</li></ul>

The Asian Dollar Index is down (US Dollar up) 1.7% from 1st -13th February.After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during the same period in February.The Bloomberg Dollar index is up 1.78%, and the DXY index is up 2.57%.

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Like the US banks confronted dual crises in 1990 (Latin American debt, domestic S&amp;Ls), Chinese banks face a crisis of overlending to 50+ frontier markets, compounding the domestic property crisis. </li>
<li>Just as US banks were the main lenders to Mexico until its Aug'1982 default, recent defaulters (Zambia, SriLanka) are heavily indebted to China. The property crisis already burdens China's banks.</li>
<li>Dearth of macroeconomic expertise in the PBSC is alarming at a time when foreign reserves are down US$200bn YTD, despite YTD trade surplus of US$742bn. Dampened credit growth precludes evergreening. </li>
</ul>


Like the US banks confronted dual crises in 1990 (Latin American debt, domestic S&amp;Ls), Chinese banks face a crisis of overlending to 50+ frontier markets, compounding the domestic property crisis. 
Just as US banks were the main lenders to Mexico until its Aug'1982 default, recent defaulters (Zambia, SriLanka) are heavily indebted to China. The property crisis already burdens China's banks.
Dearth of macroeconomic expertise in the PBSC is alarming at a time when foreign reserves are down US$200bn YTD, despite YTD trade surplus of US$742bn. Dampened credit growth precludes evergreening. 


China's Twin Crises: Overlending to Frontier Markets & Domestic Property Sector

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Yuan / In Depth: Yuan gets more international love as dollar rivalry grows</li><li>China-Vietnam / Xi pledges supply chain stability with Vietnam</li><li>PMI / China’s manufacturing contracts for third straight month, Caixin PMI shows　</li></ul>

Yuan / In Depth: Yuan gets more international love as dollar rivalry growsChina-Vietnam / Xi pledges supply chain stability with VietnamPMI / China’s manufacturing contracts for third straight month, Caixin PMI shows　

CX Daily: Yuan Gets More International Love As Dollar Rivalry Grows

<ul>
<li>
Crimes / Cover Story: The evolution of crime in China. 
</li>
<li>
Seoul / Chinese nationals among scores dead in Seoul crush. 
</li>
<li>
Personnel / Rising Communist Party star Yin Yong named acting mayor of Beijing. .
</li>
</ul>



Crimes / Cover Story: The evolution of crime in China. 


Seoul / Chinese nationals among scores dead in Seoul crush. 


Personnel / Rising Communist Party star Yin Yong named acting mayor of Beijing. .



CX Daily: The Evolution Of Crime In China

China

The Chinese renminbi (yuan) is the official currency of The People's Republic of China. 

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HSCEI Dividend Futures: Fair Value Estimates as Result Season Looms

HSCEI constituents will declare 2022 results and dividends in the next few weeks. 2023 div futures are trading around fair, but there could be...

Brian Freitas

The Butterfly Effect

After the initial excitement of China reopening accelerating after the LNY holidays, the CNY weakened by 1.7%, and Yen weakened by nearly 3% during...

Untying The Gordian Knot

China's Twin Crises: Overlending to Frontier Markets & Domestic Property Sector

Most vulnerable frontier markets (including the defaulters Zambia, Sri Lanka) are heavy borrowers from China, which faces its own local property...

Prasenjit K. Basu

CX Daily: Yuan Gets More International Love As Dollar Rivalry Grows

In Depth: Yuan gets more international love as dollar rivalry grows. Xi pledges supply chain stability with Vietnam. China’s manufacturing...

Caixin Global

CX Daily: The Evolution Of Crime In China

Crimes / Cover Story: The evolution of crime in China. Seoul / Chinese nationals among scores dead in Seoul crush. Personnel / Rising Communist...

Caixin Global

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