HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) A / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.</li>
<li>Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.</li>
<li>Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji's market value should be more than RMB20 billion.</li>
</ul>


TCM formula granules VBP would cause some disturbance to related enterprises’ performance, but the substitution of TCM formula granules for TCM decoction pieces is a trend, indicating long-term optimistic growth.
Keymed’s CM310 would probably miss the NRDL negotiation this year, which will put the Company in passive situation. Based on competitive landscape, we are worried about the performance of Keymed.
Unsatisfactory performance of Taiji’s shares is related to concerns on China TCM’s privatization/24H1 results.However, even without the integration with China TCM, Taiji's market value should be more than RMB20 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li style="text-align: left;">Quiet week - no new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma ....</li>
<li>Key updates took place on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansarada-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30718:1" rel="noopener">Ansarada Group (AND AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/southern-cross-gold-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36552:1" rel="noopener">Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a8-new-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3444:1" rel="noopener">A8 New Media (800 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandala-multifinance-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12756:1" rel="noopener">Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


I tally 45 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Quiet week - no new deals were discussed this week on Smartkarma ....
Key updates took place on Ansarada Group (AND AU), Southern Cross Gold (SXG AU), A8 New Media (800 HK), CPMC Holdings (906 HK), Mandala Multifinance (MFIN IJ), and Fancl (4921 JP).



(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl

<ul>
<li>For the month of July 2024, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of July 2024, 11 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$10bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

<ul>
<li>Back on the 6th December 2023, packaging play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpmc-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10427:1" rel="noopener">CPMC Holdings (906 HK)</a> announced a pre-conditional Offer of $6.87/share, in cash, from SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0730/2024073000041.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Offer Document</a> is now out. This is not a Composite Document. A "Response Document" is expected in two weeks, which will include the IFA opinion. </li>
<li>All the above is moot. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/org-technology-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17510:1" rel="noopener">ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)</a>'s superior HK$7.21/share Offer is currently navigating the necessary regulatory approvals. With irrevocables, ORG has 46.44% in the bag.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 6th December 2023, packaging play CPMC Holdings (906 HK) announced a pre-conditional Offer of $6.87/share, in cash, from SASAC/NCSSF-backed Champion.
The Offer Document is now out. This is not a Composite Document. A "Response Document" is expected in two weeks, which will include the IFA opinion. 
All the above is moot. ORG Technology Co., Ltd. A (002701 CH)'s superior HK$7.21/share Offer is currently navigating the necessary regulatory approvals. With irrevocables, ORG has 46.44% in the bag.


CPMC (906 HK): Champion's Offer Now Open. But All Eyes On ORG's Tilt

<ul>
<li>Expect True Wind to walk away rather than raising their price further for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a>. They'd need to pay ¥5,500-5,800 to dislodge a large chunk. And they won't.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12179:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Group (002790 KS)</a> plumbs new discount lows as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amorepacific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20854:1" rel="noopener">Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS) </a> gets a boost from Amazon Prime Day.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canon-marketing-japan-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3866:1" rel="noopener">Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP)</a> is still significantly under-levered. That means the stock price will generically not be that volatile. That generally means one should buy dips and sell pops.</li>
</ul>


Expect True Wind to walk away rather than raising their price further for Sun Corp (6736 JP). They'd need to pay ¥5,500-5,800 to dislodge a large chunk. And they won't.

Amorepacific Group (002790 KS) plumbs new discount lows as Amorepacific Corp (090430 KS)  gets a boost from Amazon Prime Day.

Canon Marketing Japan (8060 JP) is still significantly under-levered. That means the stock price will generically not be that volatile. That generally means one should buy dips and sell pops.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical

Hong Kong

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co. Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medicine and pharmaceutical products in China.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

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China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.

David Blennerhassett

CPMC (906 HK): Champion's Offer Now Open. But All Eyes On ORG's Tilt

Assuming mid-Jan 2025 payment, this is trading way too tight. Especially when second-guessing the timeline for securing reg approvals involving a...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.4)- Taiji Group & China TCM, TCM Formula Granules VBP, Keymed's Trouble

​Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Ansarada, Southern Cross Gold, A8 New Media, CPMC, Mandala Multifinance, Fancl

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, July 2024: Canvest, Furukawa, Arvida, Advanced Info, Sermsuk, Thaicom

The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in July was ~31%. The average premium YTD is ~44%.

David Blennerhassett

CPMC (906 HK): Champion's Offer Now Open. But All Eyes On ORG's Tilt

Assuming mid-Jan 2025 payment, this is trading way too tight. Especially when second-guessing the timeline for securing reg approvals involving a...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Sun Corp, Amorepacific, Canon Marketing, Jeisys Medical

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Substitution of TCM formula granules for decoction pieces is a trend despite the VBP. Keymed will face difficulties without NRDL negotiation....