Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>  (TCM) has been a frustrating deal, for a deal that shouldn’t be frustrating.</li>
<li>As feared from its 16th October monthly update, the inability to secure investor group consents appears to have torpedoed the transaction. Will we eventually find out why this got stonewalled?</li>
<li>This deal lapse changes the Hong Kong M&amp;A landscape; if you can't rely on SOE transactions to get up, what next?  The immediate question now is downside support on Monday.  </li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)  (TCM) has been a frustrating deal, for a deal that shouldn’t be frustrating.
As feared from its 16th October monthly update, the inability to secure investor group consents appears to have torpedoed the transaction. Will we eventually find out why this got stonewalled?
This deal lapse changes the Hong Kong M&amp;A landscape; if you can't rely on SOE transactions to get up, what next?  The immediate question now is downside support on Monday.  


TCM (570 HK): Likely Rush for The Exits As Deal Busts

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

<ul>
<li>The “industry clearing”  of innovative drug companies is far longer and more brutal than imagined. But Chinese innovative drug ecosystem will ultimately usher in a better innovation pattern in the future.</li>
<li>For every innovative pharmaceutical company with ambitious goals, globalization is a “must option”. With more and more Chinese biotech achieving success, the internationalization prospects will become better and better.</li>
<li>China TCM’s privatization failure made us realize large SOEs we always believe in would violate their commitments to market/investors.Now, we need to get back to the fundamentals to minimize losses.</li>
</ul>


The “industry clearing”  of innovative drug companies is far longer and more brutal than imagined. But Chinese innovative drug ecosystem will ultimately usher in a better innovation pattern in the future.
For every innovative pharmaceutical company with ambitious goals, globalization is a “must option”. With more and more Chinese biotech achieving success, the internationalization prospects will become better and better.
China TCM’s privatization failure made us realize large SOEs we always believe in would violate their commitments to market/investors.Now, we need to get back to the fundamentals to minimize losses.


China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-A Big Lesson from China TCM's Deal Break, “Must Option” of Biotech

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.</li>
<li>This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. </li>
<li>Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.
This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. 
Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-metro-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40930:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rigaku-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43950:1" rel="noopener">Rigaku Holdings (268A JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-robotics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35637:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Robotics (9660 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beverage" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41984:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beverage (2460 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-art-retail-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:401:1" rel="noopener">Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dyna-mac-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16153:1" rel="noopener">Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Tokyo Metro (9023 JP), Rigaku Holdings (268A JP), Horizon Robotics (9660 HK), China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) and Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments: China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Sun Art Retail (6808 HK), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP).



Weekly Deals Digest (20 Oct) - China TCM, GA Pack, Tokyo Metro, Rigaku, CR Beverage, Horizon Robotic

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> (TCM) will fall today. Perhaps a lot.</li>
<li>With two days left on the clock to secure the pre-conditions (18th October), the Offeror <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1016/2024101600435.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> "it remains uncertain" whether it can secure an extension from the investor group.</li>
<li>Such wording could be viewed as boilerplate SFC legalise. I would argue the use of "uncertain" is superfluous, unhelpful, and for investors, downright worrying. </li>
</ul>



China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) (TCM) will fall today. Perhaps a lot.
With two days left on the clock to secure the pre-conditions (18th October), the Offeror said "it remains uncertain" whether it can secure an extension from the investor group.
Such wording could be viewed as boilerplate SFC legalise. I would argue the use of "uncertain" is superfluous, unhelpful, and for investors, downright worrying. 


TCM (570 HK): "Uncertain" To Spook Shares

Hong Kong

China Traditional Chinese Medicine Co. Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells medicine and pharmaceutical products in China.

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)

TCM (570 HK): Likely Rush for The Exits As Deal Busts

How does a ~34% decline (in the morning session) stack up with past deal breaks in Hong Kong? It's not a clean comparative analysis, as past...

David Blennerhassett

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-A Big Lesson from China TCM's Deal Break, “Must Option” of Biotech

The break of China TCM’s privatization deal has taught us an important lesson.Globalization is a “must option”. The “industry clearing” of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang