Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 9-15, 2024

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Retirement / Cover Story: China moves to raise retirement age to bolster workforce, ease pension pressure</li><li>Tsung-Dao Lee /: Physicist Tsung-Dao Lee, one of China’s first Nobel laureates, dies at 97</li><li>Digital ID /: China’s new digital ID system trialed across over 80 apps</li></ul>

Retirement / Cover Story: China moves to raise retirement age to bolster workforce, ease pension pressureTsung-Dao Lee /: Physicist Tsung-Dao Lee, one of China’s first Nobel laureates, dies at 97Digital ID /: China’s new digital ID system trialed across over 80 apps

CX Daily: China Moves to Raise Retirement Age to Bolster Workforce, Ease Pension Pressure 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/barito-pacific-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8851:1" rel="noopener">Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)</a>'s 64.7% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-barito-renewables-energy-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40150:1" rel="noopener">Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ)</a> (now Indonesia’s largest company by market cap), is worth 8x its market cap. That's unsustainable.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the Barito complex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Barito Pacific (BRPT IJ)'s 64.7% stake in Barito Renewables Energy (BREN IJ) (now Indonesia’s largest company by market cap), is worth 8x its market cap. That's unsustainable.
Preceding my comments on the Barito complex are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates (127 HK)</a>'s Scheme was always going to be a tricky affair, given Hong Kong's 2021 M&amp;A bloodbath - e.g.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-throat-holdings-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22664:1" rel="noopener">Golden Throat (6896 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>95.95% of Disinterested Shareholders voted for the Scheme. However, the Scheme failed the "headcount test", as it was not approved by a majority in number of Scheme Shareholders. </li>
<li>Hong Kong abolished the headcount test in March 2014. Cayman and Bermuda-incorporated companies should follow suit. </li>
</ul>



Chinese Estates (127 HK)'s Scheme was always going to be a tricky affair, given Hong Kong's 2021 M&amp;A bloodbath - e.g.  Soho China (410 HK) &amp; Golden Throat (6896 HK).
95.95% of Disinterested Shareholders voted for the Scheme. However, the Scheme failed the "headcount test", as it was not approved by a majority in number of Scheme Shareholders. 
Hong Kong abolished the headcount test in March 2014. Cayman and Bermuda-incorporated companies should follow suit. 


Chinese Estates (127 HK): Understanding The Scheme Voting

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 9-15, 2024

This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress....

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress,...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: China Moves to Raise Retirement Age to Bolster Workforce, Ease Pension Pressure

Retirement / Cover Story: China moves to raise retirement age to bolster workforce, ease pension pressure After more than a decade as a recurring...

Caixin Global

StubWorld: Barito Renewables (BREN IJ) - This Too Shall Pop

I don't know what is going on. I do know BREN's share price will decline. All stocks - parent and subs - are uninvestable in my view.

David Blennerhassett

Chinese Estates (127 HK): Understanding The Scheme Voting

Interesting development. 230.977mn shares (or 12.11% of shares out) in Chinese Estates (127 HK) have moved into CCASS (and into BNP). That's almost...

David Blennerhassett

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