Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chinese-estates-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20954:1" rel="noopener">Chinese Estates (127 HK)</a>'s Scheme was always going to be a tricky affair, given Hong Kong's 2021 M&amp;A bloodbath - e.g.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soho-china-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4123:1" rel="noopener">Soho China (410 HK)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/golden-throat-holdings-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22664:1" rel="noopener">Golden Throat (6896 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>95.95% of Disinterested Shareholders voted for the Scheme. However, the Scheme failed the "headcount test", as it was not approved by a majority in number of Scheme Shareholders. </li>
<li>Hong Kong abolished the headcount test in March 2014. Cayman and Bermuda-incorporated companies should follow suit. </li>
</ul>



Chinese Estates (127 HK)'s Scheme was always going to be a tricky affair, given Hong Kong's 2021 M&amp;A bloodbath - e.g.  Soho China (410 HK) &amp; Golden Throat (6896 HK).
95.95% of Disinterested Shareholders voted for the Scheme. However, the Scheme failed the "headcount test", as it was not approved by a majority in number of Scheme Shareholders. 
Hong Kong abolished the headcount test in March 2014. Cayman and Bermuda-incorporated companies should follow suit. 


Chinese Estates (127 HK): Understanding The Scheme Voting

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024

Founder & Head of Research, Fortress Hill Advisors

Alex Ng

Founder & Head of Research

Fortress Hill Advisors

Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.

Premium Economic & Investment Research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China policymakers’ deleveraging pressures on property developers have been supplemented by recent common prosperity measures to ensure that “housing is for living and not for speculation”.</li>
<li>This has raised concerns of a major property developer bankruptcy and questions of whether China’s highly valued property market could finally see a housing bust.</li>
<li>Chinese authorities have huge economic and political incentives to ensure that deleveraging pressure is followed by support as property developers deleverage.</li>
</ul>


China policymakers’ deleveraging pressures on property developers have been supplemented by recent common prosperity measures to ensure that “housing is for living and not for speculation”.
This has raised concerns of a major property developer bankruptcy and questions of whether China’s highly valued property market could finally see a housing bust.
Chinese authorities have huge economic and political incentives to ensure that deleveraging pressure is followed by support as property developers deleverage.


China’s Long Property Bubble and Indebted Developers

<ul>
<li>Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.</li>
<li>Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> is in play.</li>
<li>A HUGE new buyback for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a>. Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. </li>
</ul>


Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The majority of its revenue comes from selling float glass, which is used in buildings and construction. </li>
<li>The Chinese government has started home ownership relaxation that will reinvigorate the real estate market. </li>
<li>It is still trading at 67% lower to 3 years ago. </li>
</ul>


The majority of its revenue comes from selling float glass, which is used in buildings and construction. 
The Chinese government has started home ownership relaxation that will reinvigorate the real estate market. 
It is still trading at 67% lower to 3 years ago. 


Xinyi Glass (868): Beneficiary of Chinese RE Rejuvenation

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

Chinese Estates (127 HK): Understanding The Scheme Voting

Interesting development. 230.977mn shares (or 12.11% of shares out) in Chinese Estates (127 HK) have moved into CCASS (and into BNP). That's almost...

David Blennerhassett

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024

This note is a weekly (June 14-20, 2024; select weeks available on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused...

Robert Ciemniak

China’s Long Property Bubble and Indebted Developers

China's push for deleveraging in the property market, combined with common prosperity measures, raises concerns of a potential housing bust and...

Alex Ng

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Xinyi Glass (868): Beneficiary of Chinese RE Rejuvenation

Xinyi Glass, makers of float glass in China, will benefit from home ownership relaxation policies in China. Currently trades at 7x PER with 6% yield.

Henry Soediarko

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Chinese Estates (127 HK): Understanding The Scheme Voting

Interesting development. 230.977mn shares (or 12.11% of shares out) in Chinese Estates (127 HK) have moved into CCASS (and into BNP). That's almost...

David Blennerhassett

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | May June 14-20, 2024

This note is a weekly (June 14-20, 2024; select weeks available on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused...

Robert Ciemniak

China’s Long Property Bubble and Indebted Developers

​China's push for deleveraging in the property market, combined with common prosperity measures, raises concerns of a potential housing bust and...

Alex Ng

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Xinyi Glass (868): Beneficiary of Chinese RE Rejuvenation

Xinyi Glass, makers of float glass in China, will benefit from home ownership relaxation policies in China. Currently trades at 7x PER with 6% yield.

Henry Soediarko

China's push for deleveraging in the property market, combined with common prosperity measures, raises concerns of a potential housing bust and...