Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shared an estimate of the scale of new homes sold and still due for delivery in 2024</li>
<li>The figure is 3.96 million, which at around 100sqm per unit average would imply around 400 million sqm GFA of property</li>
<li>This is a more realistic figure than the much bigger numbers derived from macro data on sales, completions, and under-construction</li>
</ul>


On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development shared an estimate of the scale of new homes sold and still due for delivery in 2024
The figure is 3.96 million, which at around 100sqm per unit average would imply around 400 million sqm GFA of property
This is a more realistic figure than the much bigger numbers derived from macro data on sales, completions, and under-construction


China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

<ul>
<li>Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected</li>
<li>In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline</li>
<li>The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS</li>
</ul>


Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more challenging than expected
In contrast, 2023 was more in line with expectations, with the 'wisdom of crowds' working better; but in 2022 no one got close to predicting the extent of the decline
The forecast focuses on NBS national new home sales (GFA) monthly 12M vs the prior 12M growth rate, with some distortions due to data revisions by NBS


China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area</li>
<li>From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm</li>
<li>The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized</li>
</ul>


It's often not what it seems when it comes to reading China's official data for new home sales, and the construction indicators for New Starts, Completions, and Under-Construction area
From a demand-supply perspective, the Under-Construction figures seem heavily over-estimated, given the way new starts are counted, industry practices, and 'dead supply'; closer to 4bn rather than 7bn sqm
The gap between sales and completions has more to do with data collection and definitions than the actual 'gap' - a much smaller problem than publicized


China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

<ul>
<li>This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress</li>
<li>We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market</li>
<li>We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources</li>
</ul>


This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news ('local signals'), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources


China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 23-29, 2024

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>F&amp;B / In Depth: A new Chinese food and beverage wave hits Southeast Asia Forget kung pao chicken and sweet and sour pork.</li><li>There’s a new wave of food and beverage chains flowing out of China, and it’s all about Sichuan hot pot, braised chicken rice and pickle fish soup — as well as mainstays like bubble tea.</li><li>Chinese food and beverage (F&amp;B) companies have expanded quickly into Southeast Asia, and even into North America and Europe, in the past few years, driven in part by saturation at home.</li></ul>

F&amp;B / In Depth: A new Chinese food and beverage wave hits Southeast Asia Forget kung pao chicken and sweet and sour pork.There’s a new wave of food and beverage chains flowing out of China, and it’s all about Sichuan hot pot, braised chicken rice and pickle fish soup — as well as mainstays like bubble tea.Chinese food and beverage (F&amp;B) companies have expanded quickly into Southeast Asia, and even into North America and Europe, in the past few years, driven in part by saturation at home.

CX Daily: A New Chinese Food and Beverage Wave Hits Southeast Asia 

China

China Evergrande Group is an integrated residential property developer. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates in property development, investment, management, finance, internet, health, culture, and tourism markets.

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Evergrande (3333 HK)

China Housing: The Answer Is 3.96 (Not 42)-New Estimate Of Sold-Still-To-Be-Delivered Units in 2024

A new estimate for China's 'sold-not-yet-delivered' housing units in 2024 was shared by MoHURD and it looks much better than numbers derived from...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Forecasts Vs Actuals - Mid-Year 2024 Check And... Some History

Our annual 'draw the line' forecast, by market participants in early 2024, of China's new home sales shows the reality (data to July) proved more...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Demand-Supply Fundamentals - Part #3: Solving The Construction Indicators Puzzle

On Aug 23, China's Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MoHURD) shared their estimate of the scale of the issue with the 'sold-not...

Robert Ciemniak

China Property Developers In Distress - Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 23-29, 2024

This note is a weekly (23-29 August 2024; select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on...

Robert Ciemniak

CX Daily: A New Chinese Food and Beverage Wave Hits Southeast Asia

F&B / In Depth: A new Chinese food and beverage wave hits Southeast Asia Forget kung pao chicken and sweet and sour pork. There’s a new wave...

Caixin Global

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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