Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

<p>Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.</p><p>The June review will see the inclusion of stocks that were newly listed from 1 January to 31 March and meet the criteria for joining the index.</p><p>Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.</p><div><p>There are a lot of stocks that will join the HSCI and will subsequently be included as a part of the Southbound Stock Connect program - these stocks could be bought by mainland investors and could outperform their peers and the market.</p></div><div><p>There are stocks that will be deleted from the HSCI and consequently deleted from the Southbound Stock Connect buy list while some stocks will be deleted from the HSCI but maintained in Stock Connect since they have listed A-shares.</p></div><div><p>Read on for more details and the stocks affected by the changes.</p></div>

Hang Seng Indexes Company (HSIL) reviews the constituents of the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) on a half yearly basis in March and September with data cut-off dates as of the end of December and June. The review announcement for the September 2021 review should be made on 13 August and will be effective after the close of trading on 3 September.The June review will see the inclusion of stocks that were newly listed from 1 January to 31 March and meet the criteria for joining the index.Although there are almost no assets indexed to the HSCI, the index forms the basis of stocks that are eligible for Southbound Stock Connect. Stocks that are included in the HSCI and subsequently included in the Stock Connect program get inflows from mainland investors.There are a lot of stocks that will join the HSCI and will subsequently be included as a part of the Southbound Stock Connect program - these stocks could be bought by mainland investors and could outperform their peers and the market.There are stocks that will be deleted from the HSCI and consequently deleted from the Southbound Stock Connect buy list while some stocks will be deleted from the HSCI but maintained in Stock Connect since they have listed A-shares.Read on for more details and the stocks affected by the changes.

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

Equity Analyst, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

Health And Happiness (H&H) / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>In this insight, we discuss H&amp;H's business outlook, valuations, likely near term stock triggers and upcoming Q42020 results. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20582:1" rel="noopener">Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK)</a> is currently trading at 14X forward (and 16.5X trailing) P/E at one of its lowest valuation levels after sliding 20% from mid-Feb highs. H&amp;H, which owns leading brands in the premium baby nutrition and adult nutrition segments had announced the acquisition of US-based pet food brand Solid Gold in November 2020. As discussed in our Smartkarma Original <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pet-care-sector-in-asia-saga-has-just-started-opportunities-galore" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47000" rel="noopener">Pet Care Sector in Asia: Saga Has Just Started. Opportunities Galore.</a> demand for pet care products is growing at a robust pace in China. H&amp;H's foray into this segment opens up new avenues for future growth.</p><p>Expect upcoming Q42020 results <em>(to be announced on 23rd March)</em> to give greater clarity on the pace of growth for its core infant milk and the branded adult nutrition segment led by new product launches and expanding reach. The company is also likely to consolidate the recently acquired petcare business while reporting Q4 financials. <strong>Re-rating potential exists; Limited stock downside,</strong> given the defensive nature of business and inexpensive valuations.</p>

In this insight, we discuss H&amp;H's business outlook, valuations, likely near term stock triggers and upcoming Q42020 results. Health And Happiness (H&amp;H) (1112 HK) is currently trading at 14X forward (and 16.5X trailing) P/E at one of its lowest valuation levels after sliding 20% from mid-Feb highs. H&amp;H, which owns leading brands in the premium baby nutrition and adult nutrition segments had announced the acquisition of US-based pet food brand Solid Gold in November 2020. As discussed in our Smartkarma Original Pet Care Sector in Asia: Saga Has Just Started. Opportunities Galore. demand for pet care products is growing at a robust pace in China. H&amp;H's foray into this segment opens up new avenues for future growth.Expect upcoming Q42020 results (to be announced on 23rd March) to give greater clarity on the pace of growth for its core infant milk and the branded adult nutrition segment led by new product launches and expanding reach. The company is also likely to consolidate the recently acquired petcare business while reporting Q4 financials. Re-rating potential exists; Limited stock downside, given the defensive nature of business and inexpensive valuations.

Health & Happiness (1112 HK): Upside Potential. Pet Care Adds to NutriPower. Q4 Preview.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cheerwin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31314:1" rel="noopener">Cheerwin (6601 HK)</a> is a leading consumer household care company in China that develops and manufactures a variety of household care, personal care and pet care products. Cheerwin will commence trading on Wednesday, 10 March. Cheerwin priced its IPO at HK$9.20 and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/2896489/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%91%E6%9C%9D%E9%9B%B2%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%986601%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E8%B7%8C2%E6%88%90%E3%80%80%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E8%9D%95%E7%B4%841000%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opened around -18% lower</a> at HK$7.52 in the grey market. The poor grey market performance is perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the choppy market conditions. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cheerwin-group-ipo-initiation-the-itch-of-fate" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48373" rel="noopener">Cheerwin Group IPO Initiation: The Itch of Fate</a>, we opined that Cheerwin has the right ingredients to offer investors a play on another subsegment of China’s household care industry. We concluded that Cheerwin’s fundamentals are attractive. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cheerwin-group-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48633" rel="noopener">Cheerwin Group IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we noted that the IPO price range is resonable.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In many ways, the timing of Cheerwin's listing is unfortunate as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blue-moon-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29179:1" rel="noopener">Blue Moon Group Holdings (6993 HK)</a>'s shares have derated -18% since Cheerwin launched its bookbuild. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$10.15 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains reasonable and the grey market factors in conservative market share and margin forecasts. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think that the grey market price represents good value. </p></div></div></div>

Cheerwin (6601 HK) is a leading consumer household care company in China that develops and manufactures a variety of household care, personal care and pet care products. Cheerwin will commence trading on Wednesday, 10 March. Cheerwin priced its IPO at HK$9.20 and opened around -18% lower at HK$7.52 in the grey market. The poor grey market performance is perhaps unsurprisingly in light of the choppy market conditions. In Cheerwin Group IPO Initiation: The Itch of Fate, we opined that Cheerwin has the right ingredients to offer investors a play on another subsegment of China’s household care industry. We concluded that Cheerwin’s fundamentals are attractive. In Cheerwin Group IPO: Valuation Insights, we noted that the IPO price range is resonable.In many ways, the timing of Cheerwin's listing is unfortunate as Blue Moon Group Holdings (6993 HK)'s shares have derated -18% since Cheerwin launched its bookbuild. Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$10.15 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price remains reasonable and the grey market factors in conservative market share and margin forecasts. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think that the grey market price represents good value. 

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cheerwin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31314:1" rel="noopener">Cheerwin (6601 HK)</a> raised US$395m in its Hong Kong IPO, priced at HK$9.20 per share, the top-end of its initial IPO price range.</p>
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<p>Cheerwin is a home, personal, and pet care product platform. The company sells products such as air care, insecticides, repellants, household cleaners, and etc. As per CIC, the company is ranked first among domestic companies for the past five years (from 2015 - 2019) and had a market share of 9.4% in 2019 in terms of retail sales value.</p>
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<p>In this note, we discuss how Cheerwin's bookbuild demand compare to recent IPOs and update peer valuation table.</p>
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<p>We have previously covered the company in:</p>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cheerwin-pre-ipo-monetizing-a-mature-business" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47223" rel="noopener">Cheerwin (朝云集团) Pre-IPO - Monetizing a Mature Business</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cheerwin-pre-ipo-9m20-results-product-review" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48399" rel="noopener">Cheerwin (朝云集团) Pre-IPO - 9M20 Results + Product Review</a> </li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cheerwin-pre-ipo-peer-analysis-and-thoughts-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48493" rel="noopener">Cheerwin (朝云集团) Pre-IPO - Peer Analysis and Thoughts Valuation</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cheerwin-ipo-not-the-right-price" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48609" rel="noopener">Cheerwin (朝云集团) IPO - Not the Right Price</a> </li>
</ul>
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Cheerwin (6601 HK) raised US$395m in its Hong Kong IPO, priced at HK$9.20 per share, the top-end of its initial IPO price range.


Cheerwin is a home, personal, and pet care product platform. The company sells products such as air care, insecticides, repellants, household cleaners, and etc. As per CIC, the company is ranked first among domestic companies for the past five years (from 2015 - 2019) and had a market share of 9.4% in 2019 in terms of retail sales value.


In this note, we discuss how Cheerwin's bookbuild demand compare to recent IPOs and update peer valuation table.


We have previously covered the company in:




Cheerwin (朝云集团) Pre-IPO - Monetizing a Mature Business 

Cheerwin (朝云集团) Pre-IPO - 9M20 Results + Product Review 

Cheerwin (朝云集团) Pre-IPO - Peer Analysis and Thoughts Valuation 

Cheerwin (朝云集团) IPO - Not the Right Price 



Cheerwin (朝云集团) IPO - Good Bookbuild Demand but Still Below Average

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cheerwin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31314:1" rel="noopener">Cheerwin (6601 HK)</a>  is a leading one-stop multi category household care and personal care platform in China. The company has set the terms for its IPO where it plans to raise HK$2.0-2.4bn (approx. US$265-313m) at an indicative IPO price range of HK$7.8-9.2 per share.</p><p>In our previous insight, we discussed Cheerwin’s business model, segments and financials. Refer the extract below from our previous insight:</p><div class="content-highlight"><p><em>The household care market in China is forecasted to grow steadily over the next few years driven by increased urbanisation, growing per capita disposable income, segmentation of product categories and growing innovation. In addition, the Covid-19 outbreak also has accelerated the demand for household care products, especially disinfectants, hand sanitizers and other personal hygiene products. Though the company’s revenues have been growing at lower single digits, we believe strong growth prospects attached to the Chinese household care market alongside diversifying into other verticals such as pet care and personal care markets should help Cheerwin generate stable revenues</em></p></div>

Cheerwin (6601 HK)  is a leading one-stop multi category household care and personal care platform in China. The company has set the terms for its IPO where it plans to raise HK$2.0-2.4bn (approx. US$265-313m) at an indicative IPO price range of HK$7.8-9.2 per share.In our previous insight, we discussed Cheerwin’s business model, segments and financials. Refer the extract below from our previous insight:The household care market in China is forecasted to grow steadily over the next few years driven by increased urbanisation, growing per capita disposable income, segmentation of product categories and growing innovation. In addition, the Covid-19 outbreak also has accelerated the demand for household care products, especially disinfectants, hand sanitizers and other personal hygiene products. Though the company’s revenues have been growing at lower single digits, we believe strong growth prospects attached to the Chinese household care market alongside diversifying into other verticals such as pet care and personal care markets should help Cheerwin generate stable revenues

Cheerwin IPO: Fairly Valued Compared to Recent IPOs in the Household, Personal and Pet Care Markets

China

Cheerwin Group Limited manufactures and distributes personal care products. The Company produces household care products, pet care products, and other products. Cheerwin Group provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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Cheerwin (6601 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in June and September

A look at the potential changes to the HSCI at the June & September reviews and stocks that could be included in/excluded from Stock Connect. These...

Brian Freitas

Health & Happiness (1112 HK): Upside Potential. Pet Care Adds to NutriPower. Q4 Preview.

Upcoming Q4 results can offer clarity on growth prospects and trigger stock upside. Current inexpensive valuations mean little downside potential....

Devi Subhakesan

Cheerwin Group IPO: Trading Debut

Cheerwin priced its IPO at HK$9.20 and opened around -18% lower at HK$7.52 in the grey market. For investors with a longer-term horizon, we think...

Arun George

Cheerwin (朝云集团) IPO - Good Bookbuild Demand but Still Below Average

Cheerwin (6601 HK) IPO was priced at HK$9.20 per share. In this note, we discuss how Cheerwin's bookbuild demand compare to recent IPOs and update...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Cheerwin IPO: Fairly Valued Compared to Recent IPOs in the Household, Personal and Pet Care Markets

Cheerwin is a leading one-stop multi category household care and personal care platform in China. The company has set the terms for its IPO where...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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