External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The CAD is ending the week slightly lower versus the USD. While this week’s data run has looked a bit soft, considering lower than expected the CPI data and today’s Retail Sales report, the broader tone of Canadian economic data continues to run a little warm— data reports are generally running a bit ahead of expectations.</li><li>And even with CPI easing a little in the September month, prices remain elevated and the risk of inflation getting stuck above target remains.</li><li>Factors driving the CAD have negatively shifted this week, however; correlations across a range of variables are strengthening but remain below statistically significant levels. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The CAD is ending the week slightly lower versus the USD. While this week’s data run has looked a bit soft, considering lower than expected the CPI data and today’s Retail Sales report, the broader tone of Canadian economic data continues to run a little warm— data reports are generally running a bit ahead of expectations.And even with CPI easing a little in the September month, prices remain elevated and the risk of inflation getting stuck above target remains.Factors driving the CAD have negatively shifted this week, however; correlations across a range of variables are strengthening but remain below statistically significant levels. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Tone Remains Soft, Focus Turns to BoC

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Risk aversion is the primary characteristic of the markets this morning.</li><li>Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.</li><li>Crude oil prices have picked up a little while major bond markets are mixed; US Treasury yields have eased 4- 5bps from yesterday’s close.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Risk aversion is the primary characteristic of the markets this morning.Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.Crude oil prices have picked up a little while major bond markets are mixed; US Treasury yields have eased 4- 5bps from yesterday’s close.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed Despite Weak Risk Appetite

<ul>
<li>Overall changes in aggregate positioning in the USD were little changed in this week’s CFTC data.</li>
<li>Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year (USD8.7bn).</li>
<li>Data shows that Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) pared back aggregate net long USD positioning slightly while Real Money Accounts (institutional investors) persisted with (slightly reduced) net USD shorts.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Overall changes in aggregate positioning in the USD were little changed in this week’s CFTC data.
Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish positioning on the USD in a little under a year (USD8.7bn).
Data shows that Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) pared back aggregate net long USD positioning slightly while Real Money Accounts (institutional investors) persisted with (slightly reduced) net USD shorts.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculators Dip Back into Net EUR Longs

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.</li><li>First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.</li><li>One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks</li></ul>

Another week of blood and drama. But fear not, we’re here to wrap up the week with our usual watch series, where we’ll gauge the current market sentiment using the latest positioning data.First things first, let’s take a quick peek at the chart of the week down below. In yesterday’s Portfolio Watch, we spilled the beans about some big changes we’re planning for our portfolio.One of the main reasons we’re making these moves now is because of what we see in this chart: The S&amp;P 500 just dipped below its 200-day moving average support line, waving a red flag that suggests we might be in for a bumpy ride in the coming weeks

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors grapple with uncertainty across a number of fronts.</li><li>The USD’s failures to advance on the back of stronger than expected data and higher yields yesterday supports the impression that choppy—but essentially flat—trading in the DXY since late September reflects “late cycle” activity as investors consider the peak of the Fed tightening cycle and the peak in the US economy.</li><li>The lid on the DXY rally in the low 107 area is looking a little more solid.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors grapple with uncertainty across a number of fronts.The USD’s failures to advance on the back of stronger than expected data and higher yields yesterday supports the impression that choppy—but essentially flat—trading in the DXY since late September reflects “late cycle” activity as investors consider the peak of the Fed tightening cycle and the peak in the US economy.The lid on the DXY rally in the low 107 area is looking a little more solid.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

CAD Weekly Outlook - CAD Tone Remains Soft, Focus Turns to BoC

Factors driving the CAD have negatively shifted this week, however; correlations across a range of variables are strengthening but remain below...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Mixed Despite Weak Risk Appetite

Global stocks remain soft as investors reduce exposure to equities amid concerns about a weekend escalation of the Israel/Hamas conflict.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculators Dip Back into Net EUR Longs

Aggregate Non-Commercial (speculative) net USD longs increased slightly (USD227mn), holding close to recent levels which remains the most bullish...

Scotiabank

Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic

I sent Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs to support our critical partners, including Israel and...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed Amid Uncertainty

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to a little firmer in broad terms but FX movement is limited among the core currencies as investors...

Scotiabank

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