External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.</li><li>Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.</li><li>Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the next couple of days.Today’s October CPI is expected to show a 0.1% rise in headline prices and a deceleration in the year-on-year rate to 3.3%, down from 3.7% in September.Core prices are expected to rise 0.3% for a 4.1% gain in the October year—unchanged from September’s read. Retail Sales tomorrow are expected to reflect soft headline consumer activity in October (-0.3% m/m). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.</li><li>The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.</li><li>Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies.The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the year has not materialized.Instead, a grind higher in the USD from the middle of the year was fueled by positive economic data and rising long-term yields amid simmering expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) tightening cycle could extend further. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Steno Research

Elias Lisberg Glistrup

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.</li><li>In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.</li><li>In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.</li></ul>

With the turn of October, it’s time for our monthly evaluation of both the present and coming month’s macroeconomic conditions, in which we weigh risks against rewards.In order to do so, we employ both our Macro Regime Indicator framework and the interactive Structural Asset Allocation Model.In combination, these tools provide an empirically rooted portfolio allocation, given the identified macro conditions and drivers in financial markets.

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

<ul><li>FX Market Update—Markets are generally calmer ahead of this morning’s data points.</li><li>Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.</li><li>Major bond markets are mostly weaker on the day but yields are showing minimal gains. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—Markets are generally calmer ahead of this morning’s data points.Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.Major bond markets are mostly weaker on the day but yields are showing minimal gains. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of the FOMC decision the following day.</li><li>Aggregated positioning across the major currencies we follow here shows NonCommercial (speculative) traders cutting net USD longs by a bare USD24mn, leaving the aggregate position at a little over USD9bn.</li><li>Positioning trends across most major currencies are veering towards neutral. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of the FOMC decision the following day.Aggregated positioning across the major currencies we follow here shows NonCommercial (speculative) traders cutting net USD longs by a bare USD24mn, leaving the aggregate position at a little over USD9bn.Positioning trends across most major currencies are veering towards neutral. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Little Change in USD Positioning

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

FX Daily - USD Mixed Ahead of CPI

Last week’s broad rise in the USD is showing some signs of rolling over as markets position for the key economic releases due from the US in the...

Scotiabank

Foreign Exchange Outlook - November 2023

We have revised our forecasts for the major currencies. The weakness in the US dollar (USD) that we expected to develop over the second half of the...

Scotiabank

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy Long in Cyclical FX

We anticipate consistent QT in both USDs and EURs in the forthcoming month. On a 3-month time frame, and given the assumed conditions, our model...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Remains Soft into NFP

Stocks are positive in Europe, but gains are modest, while US equity futures are very narrowly mixed after disappointing AAPL results last night.

Scotiabank

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Little Change in USD Positioning

This week’s CFTC data show virtually no overall change in market positioning in the week through Tuesday, with investors likely sidelined ahead of...

Scotiabank

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