Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.</li><li>Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

This week’s CFTC data reflect a deepening of USD bearish sentiment among investors.Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.Additional data shows Leveraged Accounts (hedge funds) reducing net USD longs slightly but exposure is holding close to recent levels.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

<ul><li>So, the Fed is finished raising interest rates and given their revised outlook for lower inflation and slower growth, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that policymakers were now starting to think about when rate cuts will be appropriate.</li><li>The concession that the timing of rate cuts was now up for discussion was a more dovish development than markets were expecting.</li><li>Up until the blackout for this meeting, senior Fed officials were stressing the risk of policy remaining high for longer to combat inflation and, in that context, some pushback on market pricing for rate cuts would not have surprised yesterday.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

So, the Fed is finished raising interest rates and given their revised outlook for lower inflation and slower growth, Fed Chairman Powell conceded that policymakers were now starting to think about when rate cuts will be appropriate.The concession that the timing of rate cuts was now up for discussion was a more dovish development than markets were expecting.Up until the blackout for this meeting, senior Fed officials were stressing the risk of policy remaining high for longer to combat inflation and, in that context, some pushback on market pricing for rate cuts would not have surprised yesterday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>FX Market Update —The USD is trading lower ahead of the US CPI print at 8.30ET.</li>
<li>The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the DXY shows signs of topping out around the 104.20 area —the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November drop in the index.</li>
<li>Trading overnight reflects a somewhat positive tone, adding to USD headwinds. Stocks are flattish in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


FX Market Update —The USD is trading lower ahead of the US CPI print at 8.30ET.
The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the DXY shows signs of topping out around the 104.20 area —the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November drop in the index.
Trading overnight reflects a somewhat positive tone, adding to USD headwinds. Stocks are flattish in Europe but US equity futures are trading in the green.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Slips Ahead of CPI, CAD Underperforms

<ul><li>The USD is trading positively on the session but movement is fairly limited and the DXY is holding within yesterday’s range which took the index just above the 200-day MA.</li><li>The DXY is holding right around that marker this morning, with movement across the core major currencies relatively limited.</li><li>The JPY and GBP are posting modest gains on the USD at writing while the AUD is underperforming after the RBA left policy unchanged but repeated its willingness to hike again if needed. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading positively on the session but movement is fairly limited and the DXY is holding within yesterday’s range which took the index just above the 200-day MA.The DXY is holding right around that marker this morning, with movement across the core major currencies relatively limited.The JPY and GBP are posting modest gains on the USD at writing while the AUD is underperforming after the RBA left policy unchanged but repeated its willingness to hike again if needed. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Holds Firm, Focus on JOLTS Data

Canada

The Canadian dollar is the official currency of Canada. 

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CAD (USDCAD CURNCY)

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Bearish USD Sentiment Grows, JPY Shorts Covered

Aggregate USD short positioning by Non -Commercial (speculative) accounts doubled in the week through Tuesday to reach USD6.3bn.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slump Extends After FOMC

USD broadly lower in the wake of the Fed decision; more losses look likely. CAD gains on soft USD fall out. Spot loses squeeze CAD shorts.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slips Ahead of CPI, CAD Underperforms

The USD rebound through early December may be peaking but soft inflation data will be needed to add to the softer tone that is developing as the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Holds Firm, Focus on JOLTS Data

The USD is trading positively on the session but movement is fairly limited and the DXY is holding within yesterday’s range which took the index...

Scotiabank

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