Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Square delivered a below-par result in its recent quarter which has resulted in some correction in the stock price.</li><li>Square's integrated suite of products, including Square Point of Sale, Square for Restaurants, Square Online, Square Terminal, Square Stand, Square Reader, and more, now allows French businesses to sell online and in person.</li><li>Moreover, they launched Cash App Pay in the US, a new contactless payment method for online and in-person transactions.</li></ul>

Square delivered a below-par result in its recent quarter which has resulted in some correction in the stock price.Square's integrated suite of products, including Square Point of Sale, Square for Restaurants, Square Online, Square Terminal, Square Stand, Square Reader, and more, now allows French businesses to sell online and in person.Moreover, they launched Cash App Pay in the US, a new contactless payment method for online and in-person transactions.

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, India’s largest digital ecosystem for consumers and merchants has opened its book-building which will run from 08<sup>th</sup> November to the 10<sup>th</sup> of November. Paytm plans to raise INR183bn (approx. US$2.4bn) through the issuance of a mix of new shares (approx. INR83bn) and existing shares (INR00bn) at an indicative price range of INR2,080-2,150 per share. At the above price range, Paytm will have a market capitalisation of INR1,351.1-1,396.6bn and a post-money enterprise value of INR1,254.1-1,296.8bn.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p><strong>Paytm IPO Details</strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;"><strong>@ INR2,080 </strong></p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p style="text-align: right;"><strong>@ INR2,150</strong></p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Shares Outstanding Pre-IPO (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                            609.7</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>                       609.7</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Offer Shares/New Shares Issued (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                              39.9</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>                         38.6</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Total Shares Outstanding post-IPO (m)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                            649.6</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>                       648.3</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Market Cap (INRm)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                1,351,111.5</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>           1,393,788.4</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;"><p>Post-Money Enterprise Value (INRm)</p></td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;"><p>                                1,254,116.5</p></td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;"><p>           1,296,793.4</p></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><p><em>Source: Company disclosures (offer shares calculated by dividing new share issue of INR83bn by the IPO price, Enterprise value after adjusting for net debt and net IPO proceeds (we have assumed underwriting and other costs to be about 7.25% of gross proceeds) and cash and debt as of June 2021)</em></p><p>The company has already raised INR82.3bn from anchor investors (about 45.0% of the total offer) ahead of its IPO at a price of INR2,150 per share, and according to the company, its cornerstone investment was oversubscribed by more than 10x. These anchor investors include BlackRock, Vanguard, CPPIB, BirlaMF and GIC.</p><p>Paytm plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on growing and strengthening its Paytm ecosystem, investing on new business initiatives, acquisitions and strategic partnerships and for other general corporate purposes.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/442/original/image_54411635561636403842771.png?1636403843" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240442"></figure><p><em>Source: Company disclosures</em></p>

Paytm (PAYTM IN), India’s largest digital ecosystem for consumers and merchants has opened its book-building which will run from 08th November to the 10th of November. Paytm plans to raise INR183bn (approx. US$2.4bn) through the issuance of a mix of new shares (approx. INR83bn) and existing shares (INR00bn) at an indicative price range of INR2,080-2,150 per share. At the above price range, Paytm will have a market capitalisation of INR1,351.1-1,396.6bn and a post-money enterprise value of INR1,254.1-1,296.8bn.

Paytm IPO Details
@ INR2,080 
@ INR2,150


Shares Outstanding Pre-IPO (m)
                                            609.7
                       609.7


Offer Shares/New Shares Issued (m)
                                              39.9
                         38.6


Total Shares Outstanding post-IPO (m)
                                            649.6
                       648.3


Market Cap (INRm)
                                1,351,111.5
           1,393,788.4


Post-Money Enterprise Value (INRm)
                                1,254,116.5
           1,296,793.4

Source: Company disclosures (offer shares calculated by dividing new share issue of INR83bn by the IPO price, Enterprise value after adjusting for net debt and net IPO proceeds (we have assumed underwriting and other costs to be about 7.25% of gross proceeds) and cash and debt as of June 2021)The company has already raised INR82.3bn from anchor investors (about 45.0% of the total offer) ahead of its IPO at a price of INR2,150 per share, and according to the company, its cornerstone investment was oversubscribed by more than 10x. These anchor investors include BlackRock, Vanguard, CPPIB, BirlaMF and GIC.Paytm plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on growing and strengthening its Paytm ecosystem, investing on new business initiatives, acquisitions and strategic partnerships and for other general corporate purposes.Source: Company disclosures

Paytm IPO: More Expensive than Global Payment Giants and SOTP Suggests More Than 40% Discount

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a> has despatched the scheme booklet in relation to the scheme of arrangement from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>. Square will offer a fixed exchange ratio of 0.375 Square shares per Afterpay share. Based on Square's closing price on 5 November, the implied transaction price of A$120.14 per share is a 24.3% premium to Afterpay’s share price of A$96.66 per share on the last trading date (30 July) and a 2.2% premium to Afterpay’s last close share price of A$117.50 per share.  </p><p>Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. The IE’s recommendation is based primarily on four valuation approaches – market approach, the income approach (DCF), listed market price and sell-side analyst price targets. We think that IE’s market approach and income approach could be improved. We think that listed market price and analyst price target valuation approaches are fair.  </p><p>Square shareholders approved the issuance of new Square shares in connection with the scheme on 3 November. Also, the transaction has gained US Department of Justice approval (waiting period under the HSR Act expired) and ACCC has confirmed it will not review the transaction (not a condition precedent). </p><p>The key condition is the scheme approved by the Afterpay shareholders. The scheme meeting is scheduled for 10 am on 6 December, the effective date is 10 December, the record date is 10 January 2022 and the implementation date is 18 January 2022. </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>We continue to think that offer is attractive in comparison to Afterpay's historical EV/Sales multiples and average share prices and will be approved by Afterpay shareholders. At last close prices, the gross spread is 2.2% and the annualised spread to the implementation date is 11.8%. </p></div>

Afterpay Touch (APT AU) has despatched the scheme booklet in relation to the scheme of arrangement from Square Inc (SQ US). Square will offer a fixed exchange ratio of 0.375 Square shares per Afterpay share. Based on Square's closing price on 5 November, the implied transaction price of A$120.14 per share is a 24.3% premium to Afterpay’s share price of A$96.66 per share on the last trading date (30 July) and a 2.2% premium to Afterpay’s last close share price of A$117.50 per share.  Unsurprisingly, the independent expert (IE) considers the offer to be fair and reasonable. The IE’s recommendation is based primarily on four valuation approaches – market approach, the income approach (DCF), listed market price and sell-side analyst price targets. We think that IE’s market approach and income approach could be improved. We think that listed market price and analyst price target valuation approaches are fair.  Square shareholders approved the issuance of new Square shares in connection with the scheme on 3 November. Also, the transaction has gained US Department of Justice approval (waiting period under the HSR Act expired) and ACCC has confirmed it will not review the transaction (not a condition precedent). The key condition is the scheme approved by the Afterpay shareholders. The scheme meeting is scheduled for 10 am on 6 December, the effective date is 10 December, the record date is 10 January 2022 and the implementation date is 18 January 2022. We continue to think that offer is attractive in comparison to Afterpay's historical EV/Sales multiples and average share prices and will be approved by Afterpay shareholders. At last close prices, the gross spread is 2.2% and the annualised spread to the implementation date is 11.8%. 

Afterpay Scheme Meeting on 6 Dec, IE Opinion

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<div>
<p>Back on the 2 August, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay (APT AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02402191-3A571915?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a firm merger, the completion of which will create Australia's largest-ever buyout. Under the terms of the Offer, by way of a Scheme, Afterpay shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.375 shares of Square Class A common stock for each Afterpay ordinary share. Based on Square’s closing price of US$247.26 on July 30, 2021, this represented an implied transaction price of ~A$126.21 per Afterpay share, or a premium of ~30.6%.</p>
<p>Yesterday Square's shareholders <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02447292-3A580232?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> the issuance of Square shares for the acquisition of Afterpay.  This was shortly followed by the dispatch of the <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02448085-3A580361?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme Booklet</a>.</p>
<p>The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 6 December with expected implementation on the 18 January. The Independent Expert reckons the Offer is fair and reasonable. </p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


Back on the 2 August, Square Inc (SQ US) and Afterpay (APT AU) announced a firm merger, the completion of which will create Australia's largest-ever buyout. Under the terms of the Offer, by way of a Scheme, Afterpay shareholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 0.375 shares of Square Class A common stock for each Afterpay ordinary share. Based on Square’s closing price of US$247.26 on July 30, 2021, this represented an implied transaction price of ~A$126.21 per Afterpay share, or a premium of ~30.6%.
Yesterday Square's shareholders approved the issuance of Square shares for the acquisition of Afterpay.  This was shortly followed by the dispatch of the Scheme Booklet.
The Scheme Meeting will be held on the 6 December with expected implementation on the 18 January. The Independent Expert reckons the Offer is fair and reasonable. 
More below the fold.


Afterpay Ltd (APT AU)/Square (SQ US) Merger: Scheme Meeting Convened

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. </p></div><div><p>Paytm will launch its IPO on 8 November at an indicative price range of Rs2,080-2,150 per share. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs83,000 million ($1.1 billion) and a secondary raise up to Rs100,000 million ($1.3 billion). The total IPO proceeds of $2.4 billion are around 10% higher than its earlier target. The three-day share sale will conclude on 10 November.</p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/paytm-ipo-initiation-a-payments-led-super-app" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54983" rel="noopener">Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App</a>, we stated as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/paytm-ipo-bright-spot" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:59999" rel="noopener">Paytm IPO: Bright Spot</a>, we stated that the recent results show a strong return to growth, reducing loss margin and reinforce our view that Paytm has attractive fundamentals. Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is reasonable.</p></div></div></div>

Paytm (PAYTM IN), formally known as One97 Communications, is India’s largest payments platform based on the number of consumers, number of merchants, number of transactions and revenue as of 31 March 2021, according to RedSeer. Paytm has an overall payments transaction volume market share of 40%, and wallet payments transaction market share of 65-70% in India as of FY21, according to RedSeer. Paytm will launch its IPO on 8 November at an indicative price range of Rs2,080-2,150 per share. The IPO comprises a primary raise of Rs83,000 million ($1.1 billion) and a secondary raise up to Rs100,000 million ($1.3 billion). The total IPO proceeds of $2.4 billion are around 10% higher than its earlier target. The three-day share sale will conclude on 10 November.In Paytm IPO Initiation: A Payments-Led Super-App, we stated as India’s largest payments platform, Paytm is well placed to benefit from this structural tailwind. While the COVID-19 pandemic was disruptive particularly to the non-payments business, Paytm should return to growth as the impact of the pandemic wanes and vaccination rates rise in India. In Paytm IPO: Bright Spot, we stated that the recent results show a strong return to growth, reducing loss margin and reinforce our view that Paytm has attractive fundamentals. Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is reasonable.

United States

Block, Inc. operates as a financial services and digital payments company. The Company develops a payments platform aimed at small and medium businesses that allows them to accept credit card payments and use tablet computers as payment registers for a point-of-sale system. Block also provides financial and marketing services.

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Block (SQ US)

Square Inc. - Investment Thesis

Square delivered a below-par result in its recent quarter which has resulted in some correction in the stock price. Square's integrated suite of...

Baptista Research

Paytm IPO: More Expensive than Global Payment Giants and SOTP Suggests More Than 40% Discount

With not so conservative assumptions, our SOTP valuation suggests that Paytm's shares are significantly overvalued at the IPO price range. At the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Afterpay Scheme Meeting on 6 Dec, IE Opinion

The scheme meeting is scheduled for 10 am on 6 December and the implementation date is 18 January 2022. The scheme will be likely approved. Gross...

Arun George

Afterpay Ltd (APT AU)/Square (SQ US) Merger: Scheme Meeting Convened

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 4.1%/22%. Get involved. The key competitor, Affirm, is up 160% since the transaction was announced. I still...

David Blennerhassett

Paytm IPO: Valuation Insights

Paytm will launch its IPO on 8 November to raise $2.4 billion. Our valuation analysis suggests that the price range is reasonable.

Arun George

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