Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> has agreed to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a> in an all-scrip deal where Sezzle shareholders will receive 0.98 shares of Z1P per shares of SZL.</li>
<li>At last closing prices, the deal values <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sezzle-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30969:1" rel="noopener">Sezzle Inc (SZL AU)</a> at A$2.1658/share, a 21.7% premium to the last close and a 31.7% premium to 30 day VWAP.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zip-co-ltd-3708706d-4978-4e29-acbc-d9702b971da9" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29126:1" rel="noopener">Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU)</a> has also announced a A$148.7m fully underwritten institutional placement and a A$50m non-underwritten share placement plan to strengthen its balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) has agreed to acquire Sezzle Inc (SZL AU) in an all-scrip deal where Sezzle shareholders will receive 0.98 shares of Z1P per shares of SZL.
At last closing prices, the deal values Sezzle Inc (SZL AU) at A$2.1658/share, a 21.7% premium to the last close and a 31.7% premium to 30 day VWAP.

Zip Co Ltd (Z1P AU) has also announced a A$148.7m fully underwritten institutional placement and a A$50m non-underwritten share placement plan to strengthen its balance sheet.


Zip to Acquire Sezzle: Buy Now, Pray Later?

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>FY22 revenue guidance which was lowered in 3Q (from 20% to 18%) was lowered again (to 15-17%) and is below the company’s medium term targets it issued a year ago.  </li>
<li>FY22 EPS guidance was lowered to ~$4.60-4.75 (1.6% yoy at midpoint) vs. $5.24 consensus.</li>
<li>We think PYPL comes in at $5 and returns to 20% EPS growth in 2023, putting it a ~20x trough forward P/E multiple today.</li>
</ul>


FY22 revenue guidance which was lowered in 3Q (from 20% to 18%) was lowered again (to 15-17%) and is below the company’s medium term targets it issued a year ago.  
FY22 EPS guidance was lowered to ~$4.60-4.75 (1.6% yoy at midpoint) vs. $5.24 consensus.
We think PYPL comes in at $5 and returns to 20% EPS growth in 2023, putting it a ~20x trough forward P/E multiple today.


Paypal: Guess It Wasn’t Just a Pig Through a Python…But Is This a Compounder on Sale?

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausnet-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10293:1" rel="noopener">Ausnet Services (AST AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>. </li>
<li>There will also be the large <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a> acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>. </li>
<li>Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 changes to the ASX100 and ASX200 prior to the March rebalance due to the acquisitions of Ausnet Services (AST AU) and Sydney Airport (SYD AU). 
There will also be the large BHP Group (BHP AU) upweight and funding trade following unification, and possibly the Afterpay Touch (APT AU) acquisition by Square Inc (SQ US). 
Then there will be more changes to the ASX200 and ASX300 at the March rebalance. There could be a lot of new listings included in the ASX300.


ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>The two large fintech majors, PayPal and Block (formerly Square) have undergone a strong correction in the past month.</li><li>While there are many aspects of PayPal and Blocks' business that overlap but their financial performance and basic approach to business has been radically different.</li><li>The common factor has obviously been the phenomenal growth story of both companies, revolutionizing the fintech domain.</li></ul>

The two large fintech majors, PayPal and Block (formerly Square) have undergone a strong correction in the past month.While there are many aspects of PayPal and Blocks' business that overlap but their financial performance and basic approach to business has been radically different.The common factor has obviously been the phenomenal growth story of both companies, revolutionizing the fintech domain.

PayPal vs. Block (Square) - Which Fintech Major Is Looking More Financially Solid (12/2021)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a> announces approaches from third parties to acquire all or part of the company. Separately, Andrew Abercrombie, the founder, and major shareholder is stepping down.</li>
<li>This development follows the recently completed takeover of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market leader <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/afterpay-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26940:1" rel="noopener">Afterpay Touch (APT AU)</a> by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23755:1" rel="noopener">Square Inc (SQ US)</a>.</li>
<li>Humm intends to engage in relation to these proposals, however there is no assurance that any transaction will occur.</li>
</ul>



Humm Group (HUM AU) announces approaches from third parties to acquire all or part of the company. Separately, Andrew Abercrombie, the founder, and major shareholder is stepping down.
This development follows the recently completed takeover of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) market leader Afterpay Touch (APT AU) by Square Inc (SQ US).
Humm intends to engage in relation to these proposals, however there is no assurance that any transaction will occur.


United States

Block, Inc. operates as a financial services and digital payments company. The Company develops a payments platform aimed at small and medium businesses that allows them to accept credit card payments and use tablet computers as payment registers for a point-of-sale system. Block also provides financial and marketing services.

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Block (SQ US)

Zip to Acquire Sezzle: Buy Now, Pray Later?

Zip is looking to acquire Sezzle in an all-stock deal that values Sezzle at A$491m, a 21.7% premium to the last close. Zip could migrate higher to...

Brian Freitas

Paypal: Guess It Wasn’t Just a Pig Through a Python…But Is This a Compounder on Sale?

Once Paypal works its way through the tough comps, the narrative for 2H22 of reaccelerating growth will put it back in the hearts of GARP...

Aaron Gabin

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

PayPal vs. Block (Square) - Which Fintech Major Is Looking More Financially Solid (12/2021)

The two large fintech majors, PayPal and Block (formerly Square) have undergone a strong correction in the past month. While there are many...

Baptista Research

BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals

humm group is in play, and by extension, given Andrew Abercrombie's decision to step down, his stake is likely up for grabs

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Zip to Acquire Sezzle: Buy Now, Pray Later?

Zip is looking to acquire Sezzle in an all-stock deal that values Sezzle at A$491m, a 21.7% premium to the last close. Zip could migrate higher to...

Brian Freitas

Paypal: Guess It Wasn’t Just a Pig Through a Python…But Is This a Compounder on Sale?

Once Paypal works its way through the tough comps, the narrative for 2H22 of reaccelerating growth will put it back in the hearts of GARP...

Aaron Gabin

ASX100/​200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March

There will be many changes to the ASX100/200/300 indices from now to March due to M&A activity & price moves. Plus a large funding trade following...

Brian Freitas

PayPal vs. Block (Square) - Which Fintech Major Is Looking More Financially Solid (12/2021)

The two large fintech majors, PayPal and Block (formerly Square) have undergone a strong correction in the past month. While there are many...

Baptista Research

BNPL Play Hummgroup Fields Proposals

humm group is in play, and by extension, given Andrew Abercrombie's decision to step down, his stake is likely up for grabs

David Blennerhassett

ASX100/200/300 Index Rebalance Preview (March 2022): A Lot Happening From Now to March