Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a> was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.</li>
<li>Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym2/128782/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">result</a>, <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/128783/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) and <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198000/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised its full-year forecast</a> to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.</li>
<li>The company also announced it is preparing a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198002/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Section Transfer application</a>, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.</li>
</ul>


"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.


2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.</li>
<li>The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.</li>
<li>In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.</li>
</ul>


PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
In this note, we'll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.


China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.</li>
<li>Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.</li>
<li>BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILIBILI shares have rallied more than 200% since early November on prospects of China exiting zero-COVID, short covering, and accelerated breakeven timeline.
Yet simply achieving breakeven doesn’t justify its US$10 billion valuation. It has to be accompanied by decent profitable growth - an unlikely scenario given the aggressive downsizing needed for breakeven.
BILI’s businesses also entail structurally low margin. Stock could easily de-rate by 30% or more when growth euphoria recedes and disappointed profitability checks in during 2023.


BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

<ul>
<li>Multiple new agencies have been reporting that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.</li>
</ul>


Multiple new agencies have been reporting that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. 
The reports have been coming in since the second half of the year and the company has been duly denying these rumors.
In this note, we look at Tencent’s shareholding in various companies to try and gauge which ones it could sell out of and how.


Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, mainly attributable to the better-than-expected control in non-GAAP opex.</li><li>For FY23, total revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, with adjusted net loss narrowing by 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.</li><li>Looking into 2024, the focus for Bili remains as enhancing monetization and improving content ecosystem. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, mainly attributable to the better-than-expected control in non-GAAP opex.For FY23, total revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, with adjusted net loss narrowing by 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.Looking into 2024, the focus for Bili remains as enhancing monetization and improving content ecosystem. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

China ADRs Delisting - Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US...

Sumeet Singh

BILIBILI (BILI US): Can Achieving Breakeven Justify US$10bn Market Cap?

Simply achieving breakeven can't justify BILI's US$10bn market cap. Expect the company to be a leaner, profitable company yet without bright...

Eric Chen

Tencent Investee Selldown - The US$120bn Global Overhang

There have been multiple reports that Tencent (700 HK) plans to trim its investment portfolio over the remainder of the year. We look at Tencent's...

Sumeet Singh

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

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