Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a> was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.</li>
<li>Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (<a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym2/128782/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">result</a>, <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/128783/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) and <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198000/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised its full-year forecast</a> to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.</li>
<li>The company also announced it is preparing a <a href="https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material1/198002/00.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Section Transfer application</a>, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.</li>
</ul>


"VTuber" (Virtual Youtuber) animated influencer company Anycolor (5032 JP) was listed on 8 June 2022 at ¥1530. The stock popped 214% on Day1.It is up another 60% since then.
Today Anycolor reported Q2 earnings (result, presentation) and revised its full-year forecast to 30 April. Revenues will be +7-18% vs forecast, OP +18-39%, NP +15-39%. Price is 43x forecast EPS.
The company also announced it is preparing a Section Transfer application, but gave little more info. So we dig into what THAT means.


2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

<ul>
<li>Nine months ago I first wrote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a>. I thought the guidance growth pattern and valuations remarkable. Results handily beat guidance. Now we're in Year 2 of guidance.</li>
<li>After the first full year listed, FY2024 guidance was for +30% in revenue to ¥33bn, and +35% growth in OP. For Q1, reported yesterday, actual results were +51% and +91%.</li>
<li>The stock is popping this AM, but it is still cheap vs growth rates and margins. There are, notably, still "context issues" here. They merit some consideration (and investigation).</li>
</ul>


Nine months ago I first wrote on Anycolor (5032 JP). I thought the guidance growth pattern and valuations remarkable. Results handily beat guidance. Now we're in Year 2 of guidance.
After the first full year listed, FY2024 guidance was for +30% in revenue to ¥33bn, and +35% growth in OP. For Q1, reported yesterday, actual results were +51% and +91%.
The stock is popping this AM, but it is still cheap vs growth rates and margins. There are, notably, still "context issues" here. They merit some consideration (and investigation).


Anycolor (5032) - Great Quarter Guys! Again. Context Issues. Still.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In late December, I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/2023-high-conviction-anycolor-5032-aiming-at-tse-prime-and-topix-and-how" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:86221" rel="noopener">2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!</a>. Shares closed at ¥6,470 that day. Then went to ¥5,500. </li>
<li>They have since rebounded some, and now 3 pre-IPO VC investors have announced an overseas offering. This was NOT unexpected. They need more shares to get their TSE Prime listing.</li>
<li>The Offering is 3.27mm shares which is 5-6 days of volume. This lifts the TSE Prime inclusion amount, eventually, but the story is still about growth and model.</li>
</ul>


In late December, I wrote 2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!. Shares closed at ¥6,470 that day. Then went to ¥5,500. 
They have since rebounded some, and now 3 pre-IPO VC investors have announced an overseas offering. This was NOT unexpected. They need more shares to get their TSE Prime listing.
The Offering is 3.27mm shares which is 5-6 days of volume. This lifts the TSE Prime inclusion amount, eventually, but the story is still about growth and model.


Anycolor (5032) Overseas Offering - Pre-IPO VCs Selling This High Growth Name

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Late last week, the TSE announced the changes in FFW for companies which have FY-end in the calendar Q2. Changes at 30 Jan close also include Phased Weighting Changes.</li>
<li>There are two additions and 61 upweights (including net effect of PWR/PWIs). There are 456 down-weights with two-way flows of about US$1bn. There is a tiny funding trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/visional-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32977:1" rel="noopener">Visional (4194 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furuya-metal-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5196:1" rel="noopener">Furuya Metal (7826 JP)</a> are the two adds. Other large dollar upweights are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-intecc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15915:1" rel="noopener">Asahi Intecc (7747 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anycolor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36618:1" rel="noopener">Anycolor (5032 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Late last week, the TSE announced the changes in FFW for companies which have FY-end in the calendar Q2. Changes at 30 Jan close also include Phased Weighting Changes.
There are two additions and 61 upweights (including net effect of PWR/PWIs). There are 456 down-weights with two-way flows of about US$1bn. There is a tiny funding trade.

Visional (4194 JP) and Furuya Metal (7826 JP) are the two adds. Other large dollar upweights are Asahi Intecc (7747 JP) and Anycolor (5032 JP). 


TOPIX Jan FFW Change - Visional (4194), Anycolor (5032), Furuya Metal (7826)

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a>. There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).</li>
<li>There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.</li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review data set is mostly done, and one can interpolate results relatively accurately. It still leaves us with one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). There is more Real World Float- more active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later).
There is a dark horse candidate which is on investor radar for other reasons. It would not be out of the question, but the precedent is old, and different.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

Japan

Anycolor Inc. operates animation production businesses. The Company produces anime and other products. Anycolor conducts businesses in Japan.

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Anycolor (5032 JP)

2023 High Conviction - Anycolor (5032) Aiming at TSE Prime and TOPIX - And How!

ANYCOLOR (5032) is a curious company. "Expensive at 9x forward revs, but it sports a "Rule of 148" to April 2023, so 42x EPSe is not overly...

Travis Lundy

Anycolor (5032) - Great Quarter Guys! Again. Context Issues. Still.

Anycolor had another great quarter. Revenues flying, OP up 90%yoy. Net Profit up. OPMs and NPMs at a record. And still limited coverage and take-up...

Travis Lundy

Anycolor (5032) Overseas Offering - Pre-IPO VCs Selling This High Growth Name

Anycolor (5032 JP) is a high-growth, high profitability company. This is an unusual combo. Getting 50+ revenue growth at 35x current year EPS is...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX Jan FFW Change - Visional (4194), Anycolor (5032), Furuya Metal (7826)

The TOPIX FFW Review for January picked up a bunch of names, but there are a lot of names with Phased Weight Reductions and Increases. And two...

Travis Lundy

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD (Ryohin Keikaku), 1 DELETE, and 1 Very Large Very Dark Horse

The Nikkei 225 Rebal for Sep24 has 3mos before the data cutoff. I still see one ADD and one DELETE. There is a possible dark horse ADD, and Fast...

Travis Lundy

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