China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BILI's 4Q22 top line was basically in line, while non-GAAP net loss beat cons. by 8.28%. We largely dial down 2023 revenue forecast. </li>
<li>Moreover, we also suggest that recent meeting by the National Radio and Television Administration (NRTA) to curb short video addiction for minor protection would heavily impact BILI.</li>
<li>Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$ 15.4, which implies 1.85X PS in 2023.</li>
</ul>


BILI's 4Q22 top line was basically in line, while non-GAAP net loss beat cons. by 8.28%. We largely dial down 2023 revenue forecast. 
Moreover, we also suggest that recent meeting by the National Radio and Television Administration (NRTA) to curb short video addiction for minor protection would heavily impact BILI.
Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$ 15.4, which implies 1.85X PS in 2023.


[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US) Target Price Change]: Minor Protection Would Be a Pending Issue

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Bilibili reported 4Q2022 results. Net revenue increased 6.2% YoY to RMB6,142m (vs consensus RMB6,154m) while operating losses expanded to RMB2,327M (vs consensus RMB1,905.9m).</li>
<li>Mobile Games revenues declined 11.5% YoY in 4Q2022 due to the restructuring of the games biz to focus on self-developed gaming titles.</li>
<li>We expect Bilibili’s earnings to remain under pressure with aggressive cost controls to impact growth and Mobile games to slow-down in 2023E with lack of new titles for launch.</li>
</ul>


Bilibili reported 4Q2022 results. Net revenue increased 6.2% YoY to RMB6,142m (vs consensus RMB6,154m) while operating losses expanded to RMB2,327M (vs consensus RMB1,905.9m).
Mobile Games revenues declined 11.5% YoY in 4Q2022 due to the restructuring of the games biz to focus on self-developed gaming titles.
We expect Bilibili’s earnings to remain under pressure with aggressive cost controls to impact growth and Mobile games to slow-down in 2023E with lack of new titles for launch.


Bilibili 4Q: Gaming to Drop Further with In-House Developed Strategy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili announced 4Q22 financial results on 2 Mar.</li><li>Total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB6.1bn in 4Q22, in line with our and consensus estimate.</li><li>Fullyear revenue grew by 13% YoY to RMB21.9bn in 2022.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili announced 4Q22 financial results on 2 Mar.Total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB6.1bn in 4Q22, in line with our and consensus estimate.Fullyear revenue grew by 13% YoY to RMB21.9bn in 2022.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Evolving to a self-sustained business model

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>BILI's 4Q results missed expectations across key metrics from revenue and MAU growth to guidance for 2023</li>
<li>The results suggest fast growth will not return in 2023 and an uncertain road to breakeven by 2024.</li>
<li>Reiterate our bearish view on the stock and see further downside risks ahead.</li>
</ul>


BILI's 4Q results missed expectations across key metrics from revenue and MAU growth to guidance for 2023
The results suggest fast growth will not return in 2023 and an uncertain road to breakeven by 2024.
Reiterate our bearish view on the stock and see further downside risks ahead.


Bilibili (Bili Us): Further Downside Risks Ahead

<ul><li>We expect Bili will deliver narrowing adjusted net loss while revenue growth could decelerate in 4Q22, but all these are within expectations.</li><li>Market is looking for signs of monetization enhancement, self-propelling user and ecosystem growth.</li><li>We continue to expect that Bili will be on track to achieve a breakeven on non-GAAP by end-2024E, driven by growing user base that improves monetization.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Bili will deliver narrowing adjusted net loss while revenue growth could decelerate in 4Q22, but all these are within expectations.Market is looking for signs of monetization enhancement, self-propelling user and ecosystem growth.We continue to expect that Bili will be on track to achieve a breakeven on non-GAAP by end-2024E, driven by growing user base that improves monetization.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) – Eyes on Monetization Potential and Margin Improvement Trajectory

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili Inc. (BILI US) Target Price Change]: Minor Protection Would Be a Pending Issue

BILI's 4Q22 top line was basically in line with our est., while non-GAAP net loss was in line with our est., and beat cons. by 8.28%. We largely...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili 4Q: Gaming to Drop Further with In-House Developed Strategy

Bilibili's 4Q earnings were disappointing with mobile games declining. Terminating underperforming gaming titles alone is not sufficient as the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Bilibili (BILI US) – Evolving to a self-sustained business model

BiliBili announced 4Q22 financial results on 2 Mar. Total revenue increased by 6% YoY to RMB6.1bn in 4Q22, in line with our and consensus estimate.

CMB International

Bilibili (Bili Us): Further Downside Risks Ahead

Disappointing 4Q results highlights the outlook of low growth and limited room for margin improvement. We see further downside risks ahead.

Eric Chen

Bilibili (BILI US) – Eyes on Monetization Potential and Margin Improvement Trajectory

We expect Bili will deliver narrowing adjusted net loss while revenue growth could decelerate in 4Q22, but all these are within expectations.

CMB International

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