Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sensetime-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34319:1" rel="noopener">SenseTime Group (20 HK)</a> is a potential deletion in June while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> is a potential inclusion.</li>
<li>For yet another review, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> is a close add with the Velocity Test determining if the stock will be added to the index or not.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.95% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.6bn. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 4 June.</li>
</ul>



SenseTime Group (20 HK) is a potential deletion in June while Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) is a potential inclusion.
For yet another review, BeiGene (6160 HK) is a close add with the Velocity Test determining if the stock will be added to the index or not.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 2.95% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1.6bn. Official capping will be based off the close of trading on 4 June.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change or Two in June?

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The market is satisfied with BeiGene's 24Q1 performance. The major reason for BeiGene to narrow net loss in 24Q1 was based on strong product revenue growth rather than cost control. </li>
<li>Given the varying pace of product promotion/R&amp;D expenditure and the changes of product sales growth, BeiGene’s adjusted loss may achieve breakeven in a certain quarter of this year (e.g. 24Q4).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK) </a>is hard to cut costs largely. Sustained overall profitability may not be achieved until 2026 or 2027. But at least, we still see hope for a turnaround.</li>
</ul>


The market is satisfied with BeiGene's 24Q1 performance. The major reason for BeiGene to narrow net loss in 24Q1 was based on strong product revenue growth rather than cost control. 
Given the varying pace of product promotion/R&amp;D expenditure and the changes of product sales growth, BeiGene’s adjusted loss may achieve breakeven in a certain quarter of this year (e.g. 24Q4).

BeiGene (6160 HK) is hard to cut costs largely. Sustained overall profitability may not be achieved until 2026 or 2027. But at least, we still see hope for a turnaround.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>9926 HK/1801 HK/BGNE US/9995 HK: Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes in medical insurance policies(///////)</li>
<li>LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/NIO US/XPEV US: In the 16th week of 2024, the growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down, LI showed negative growth, AITO rebounded, Xiaomi fell back（/////////）</li>
<li>1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Conference (+/-/-/-)</li>
</ul>


9926 HK/1801 HK/BGNE US/9995 HK: Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes in medical insurance policies(///////)
LI US/1810 HK/1211 HK/NIO US/XPEV US: In the 16th week of 2024, the growth rate of new energy vehicles slowed down, LI showed negative growth, AITO rebounded, Xiaomi fell back（/////////）
1810 HK/XPEV US/NIO US/LI US: Takeaways from Xiaomi Investor Conference (+/-/-/-)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926HK/1801HK/BGNE US/9995HK/LI US/1810HK/1211HK/NIO US/XPEVUS/300274SZ/ 300750SZ

<ul>
<li>C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;</li>
<li>PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;</li>
<li>Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. </li>
</ul>


C1Q24 was marked by liquidity crises in innovative drug and medical device, and depressed margin in digital health. We believe this is a buying opportunity;
PD-1 has recovered nicely in C2H23 and exceeded our expectation made for 2023.We forecast 20% YoY growth in 2024.Further,pipeline maturity has led to new drugs in autoimmune and metabolic drugs;
Biosimilar has proven to be part of the solution to deal with low paying ability of Chinese healthcare and denial of access to the high paying US healthcare market. 


[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.4% as of Apr 12th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -9.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, utilities, information technology and offset by consumer staples.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.4% as of Apr 12th.
The average A-H premium changed by -9.4ppt week-on-week, led by health care, utilities, information technology and offset by consumer staples.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor.


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 12th): GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

BeiGene (6160 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change or Two in June?

Announcement is in 4 trading days. Among the potential deletes, SenseTime has soared while Xinyi Glass has dropped. Zijin Mining, Beigene and PICC...

Brian Freitas

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

BeiGene's high product revenue growth in 24Q1 narrowed net loss, with potential for breakeven in 24Q4.This is an affirmation for BeiGene....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926HK/1801HK/BGNE US/9995HK/LI US/1810HK/1211HK/NIO US/XPEVUS/300274SZ/ 300750SZ

Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes. New energy exports were generally weak in March, with new energy vehicles thriving....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 12th): GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: One Change or Two in June?

Announcement is in 4 trading days. Among the potential deletes, SenseTime has soared while Xinyi Glass has dropped. Zijin Mining, Beigene and PICC...

Brian Freitas

BeiGene (6160.HK/​BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

​BeiGene's high product revenue growth in 24Q1 narrowed net loss, with potential for breakeven in 24Q4.This is an affirmation for BeiGene....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

[Blue Lotus Daily]:9926HK/1801HK/BGNE US/9995HK/LI US/1810HK/1211HK/NIO US/XPEVUS/300274SZ/ 300750SZ

Stablization of insulin NDRL price suspected major changes. New energy exports were generally weak in March, with new energy vehicles thriving....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus Healthcare Sector Update]: Bottom-Fishing at the Bottom of the Business Cycle

​Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 12th): GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for GWM, Beigene, Cansino, First Tractor.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US/688235.CH) 24Q1- A Breakeven Point Is on the Horizon, but It Is Not Stable

BeiGene's high product revenue growth in 24Q1 narrowed net loss, with potential for breakeven in 24Q4.This is an affirmation for BeiGene....

Liquidity crises in healthcare innovation present buying opportunity;PD-1 exceeds expectations with 20%YoY growth forecast for 2024;Biosimilars...