Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Structural copper tightness, strong gold cash flows, and rising silver prices position Zijin for multi-year earnings growth and a valuation re-rating in 2026.</li>
<li>Leadership transition reduces founder dependence, strengthens governance credibility, and enables multiple expansion as Zijin aligns with global copper-scarcity peers.</li>
<li>Base valuation is HK$40–41; spot and peer convergence support HK$48–50, implying 35–40% upside with clear catalysts across copper expansions and gold stability.</li>
</ul>


Structural copper tightness, strong gold cash flows, and rising silver prices position Zijin for multi-year earnings growth and a valuation re-rating in 2026.
Leadership transition reduces founder dependence, strengthens governance credibility, and enables multiple expansion as Zijin aligns with global copper-scarcity peers.
Base valuation is HK$40–41; spot and peer convergence support HK$48–50, implying 35–40% upside with clear catalysts across copper expansions and gold stability.


2026 High Conviction Idea: Zijin Mining – Copper Scarcity Rerating to HK$48

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is up 101% on its 29th September listing. By my estimate, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining (601899 CH)</a>'s average premium to NAV since Zijin Gold's listing has been ~21%. </li>
<li>Preceding further commentary on Zijin Mining/Gold are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is up 101% on its 29th September listing. By my estimate, Zijin Mining (601899 CH)'s average premium to NAV since Zijin Gold's listing has been ~21%. 
Preceding further commentary on Zijin Mining/Gold are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Zijin Mining (2899 HK) Is Still Out Of Whack

<ul>
<li>Earnings momentum accelerating driven by gold volume +20% and mine margin expansion to 60.6%, supported by disciplined cost control and strong operating cash flow.</li>
<li>Copper–gold dual exposure provides structural upside with spot torque to Cu ~US$10,800/t and Au ~US$4,200/oz, reinforcing earnings visibility into FY26–27.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold spin-off unlocks value via clean asset separation, improved capital efficiency, and SOTP rerating potential to HK$41–42/sh under spot scenario.</li>
</ul>


Earnings momentum accelerating driven by gold volume +20% and mine margin expansion to 60.6%, supported by disciplined cost control and strong operating cash flow.
Copper–gold dual exposure provides structural upside with spot torque to Cu ~US$10,800/t and Au ~US$4,200/oz, reinforcing earnings visibility into FY26–27.
Zijin Gold spin-off unlocks value via clean asset separation, improved capital efficiency, and SOTP rerating potential to HK$41–42/sh under spot scenario.


Zijin Mining – Structural Re-Rate Underway; Q3 Results Validate Copper–Gold Flywheel + Spin Unlock

<ul>
<li>As <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s share price defies gravity, so does <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a>'s.</li>
<li>Full disclosure: I misread the room. I thought Zijin Gold was fully priced at HK$71.59/share. As was Zijin Mining. Zijin Gold is now up 92% and Zijin Mining 20%.</li>
<li>Zijin Gold currently trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. </li>
</ul>


As Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s share price defies gravity, so does Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)'s.
Full disclosure: I misread the room. I thought Zijin Gold was fully priced at HK$71.59/share. As was Zijin Mining. Zijin Gold is now up 92% and Zijin Mining 20%.
Zijin Gold currently trades at a 100% premium to peers on forward PER and EV/EBITDA multiples. 


Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Materials sector stands out as a key recovery candidate: low positioning but strong positive rotation across the GEM active universe.</li>
<li>Early inflows are being driven by China &amp; HK and South Africa, with rising fund participation and narrowing underweights.</li>
<li>Stock-Level rotation is visible in Gold Fields, Zijin Mining, and Anglo American, alongside a growing set of lightly held rising stars.</li>
</ul>


The Materials sector stands out as a key recovery candidate: low positioning but strong positive rotation across the GEM active universe.
Early inflows are being driven by China &amp; HK and South Africa, with rising fund participation and narrowing underweights.
Stock-Level rotation is visible in Gold Fields, Zijin Mining, and Anglo American, alongside a growing set of lightly held rising stars.


China

Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, explores, mines, produces, refines, and sells gold and other mineral resources in China.

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Zijin Mining Group (2899 HK)

2026 High Conviction Idea: Zijin Mining – Copper Scarcity Rerating to HK$48

Zijin poised for multi-year earnings growth and valuation re-rating in 2026 with strong copper, gold, and silver positioning, leadership...

Rahul Jain

StubWorld: Zijin Mining (2899 HK) Is Still Out Of Whack

Zijin Mining is trading rich. As is Zijin Gold. I'd be taking down borrow in Zijin Mining and look to short when this turns. Oddly - Zijin Gold is...

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining – Structural Re-Rate Underway; Q3 Results Validate Copper–Gold Flywheel + Spin Unlock

Strong earnings momentum in gold and copper, with potential for increased value through Zijin Gold spin-off and improved capital efficiency.

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?

Zijin Mining is overvalued here. The pushback? Momentum - in both Zijin Mining/Gold - is the proverbial freight train. I'd be taking down borrow...

David Blennerhassett

EM Materials: The Recovery Trade

Materials is emerging from deep under-ownership, combining low positioning with the strongest positive rotation in GEM. Inflows into China and S....

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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2026 High Conviction Idea: Zijin Mining – Copper Scarcity Rerating to HK$48

​Zijin poised for multi-year earnings growth and valuation re-rating in 2026 with strong copper, gold, and silver positioning, leadership...

Rahul Jain

StubWorld: Zijin Mining (2899 HK) Is Still Out Of Whack

Zijin Mining is trading rich. As is Zijin Gold. I'd be taking down borrow in Zijin Mining and look to short when this turns. Oddly - Zijin Gold is...

David Blennerhassett

Zijin Mining – Structural Re-Rate Underway; Q3 Results Validate Copper–Gold Flywheel + Spin Unlock

Strong earnings momentum in gold and copper, with potential for increased value through Zijin Gold spin-off and improved capital efficiency.

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Where To From Here?

Zijin Mining is overvalued here. The pushback? Momentum - in both Zijin Mining/Gold - is the proverbial freight train. I'd be taking down borrow...

David Blennerhassett

EM Materials: The Recovery Trade

Materials is emerging from deep under-ownership, combining low positioning with the strongest positive rotation in GEM. Inflows into China and S....

Steven Holden

Zijin poised for multi-year earnings growth and valuation re-rating in 2026 with strong copper, gold, and silver positioning, leadership...