HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Trump announced actions to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, with the core intention to open regulatory "green light" for manufacturing in US, which will change the industry pattern.</li>
<li>With the promotion of VBP and the implementation of medical insurance price comparison system, there’s a trend of accelerated pharmacies closures. The entire pharmacy industry will face performance headwinds.</li>
<li>BeiGene’s BRUKINSA recorded negative QoQ growth in 25Q1, which seems below expectations. However, this is temporary headwinds, since the 2025 full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged. Bottom-line valuation  is US$24.5-26.5 billion.</li>
</ul>


Trump announced actions to reduce regulatory barriers to domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, with the core intention to open regulatory "green light" for manufacturing in US, which will change the industry pattern.
With the promotion of VBP and the implementation of medical insurance price comparison system, there’s a trend of accelerated pharmacies closures. The entire pharmacy industry will face performance headwinds.
BeiGene’s BRUKINSA recorded negative QoQ growth in 25Q1, which seems below expectations. However, this is temporary headwinds, since the 2025 full-year revenue guidance remains unchanged. Bottom-line valuation  is US$24.5-26.5 billion.


China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump's Executive Order, Pharmacy's Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in June 2025.</li>
<li>The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 16th May 2025.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is the benchmark index for Hong Kong stocks. It follows a highly-subjective selection process which makes it difficult to predict index changes.
In this insight, we take a look at a group of names with reasonably high likelihood of being involved in index changes during the next review in June 2025.
The index changes are expected to be confirmed on 16th May 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

<ul>
<li>BeiGene’s 2024 results beat expectations, mainly driven by strong sales growth of BRUKINSA. In 2025, BRUKINSA's sales would exceed Calquence for the first time.But sales performance of tislelizumab remains lackluster.</li>
<li>Based on positive trend, turning losses into profits is just a matter of time. BeiGene is expected to achieve positive GAAP operating income in 2025, which is an inflection point.</li>
<li>US$24.5-26.5 billion is the valuation bottom line, below which BeiGene is undervalued. Our forecast is that market value would reach US$37.5 billion. So, there is still upside potential in valuation.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene’s 2024 results beat expectations, mainly driven by strong sales growth of BRUKINSA. In 2025, BRUKINSA's sales would exceed Calquence for the first time.But sales performance of tislelizumab remains lackluster.
Based on positive trend, turning losses into profits is just a matter of time. BeiGene is expected to achieve positive GAAP operating income in 2025, which is an inflection point.
US$24.5-26.5 billion is the valuation bottom line, below which BeiGene is undervalued. Our forecast is that market value would reach US$37.5 billion. So, there is still upside potential in valuation.


BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>In 4Q24, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> reported U.S. sales of Brukinsa of $616M, up 97% YoY and 22% QoQ, with 60%+ of demand growth coming from expanded use in CLL. </li>
<li>Brukinsa holds 25% market share in new patient starts in the U.S. in CLL, followed by Calquence (20%). For the first time, Brukinsa’s quarterly U.S. revenue outpaced that of Calquence.</li>
<li>Beigene has guided for 2025 revenue of $4.9–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY), driven by Brukinsa’s U.S. leadership position and continued global expansion in both Europe and other markets.</li>
</ul>


In 4Q24, BeiGene (6160 HK) reported U.S. sales of Brukinsa of $616M, up 97% YoY and 22% QoQ, with 60%+ of demand growth coming from expanded use in CLL. 
Brukinsa holds 25% market share in new patient starts in the U.S. in CLL, followed by Calquence (20%). For the first time, Brukinsa’s quarterly U.S. revenue outpaced that of Calquence.
Beigene has guided for 2025 revenue of $4.9–5.3B (up 29–39% YoY), driven by Brukinsa’s U.S. leadership position and continued global expansion in both Europe and other markets.


BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-ning-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6047:1" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> at the close on 7 March.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$825m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 4 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zto-express-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33488:1" rel="noopener">ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK)</a> is also an inclusion to a global index with implementation scheduled for the close on 21 March.</li>
</ul>



BeiGene (6160 HK) and ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) will replace Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK) and Li Ning (2331 HK) in the HSCEI INDEX at the close on 7 March.
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 5% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$6.4bn (US$825m). The final capping will use the close of trading on 4 March.

ZTO Express Cayman (2057 HK) is also an inclusion to a global index with implementation scheduled for the close on 21 March.


HSCEI Index Rebalance: Beigene, ZTO Replace Sino Biopharma, Li Ning; Surprise for Some

China

BeiGene, Ltd. operates as a commercial stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovery, development, and commercialization of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. BeiGene serves patients worldwide.

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BeiGene (6160 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump's Executive Order, Pharmacy's Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

Trump aims to boost US drug manufacturing by reducing regulatory barriers, leading to industry changes. VBP will accelerate pharmacy closures....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

The LONGs are up +9% vs the SHORTs from the close of 7th April 2025 to 14th April 2025. This might be a good time to revisit the insight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...

Tina Banerjee

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Beigene, ZTO Replace Sino Biopharma, Li Ning; Surprise for Some

Beigene and ZTO Express replace Li Ning and Sino Biopharma in the index. Yum China misses out, so Sunny Optical stays in the index. ZTO Express is...

Brian Freitas

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China Healthcare Weekly (May11)-Trump's Executive Order, Pharmacy's Risks, BeiGene 25Q1 Result Is Ok

​Trump aims to boost US drug manufacturing by reducing regulatory barriers, leading to industry changes. VBP will accelerate pharmacy closures....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Index Jun25: Beigene Is Our Top Pick

The LONGs are up +9% vs the SHORTs from the close of 7th April 2025 to 14th April 2025. This might be a good time to revisit the insight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

BeiGene (6160.HK/​ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

​BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

BeiGene (6160 HK): Brukinsa Outpaces Competitor in 4Q US Sales; Solid Guidance for 2025

​BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...

Tina Banerjee

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Beigene, ZTO Replace Sino Biopharma, Li Ning; Surprise for Some

Beigene and ZTO Express replace Li Ning and Sino Biopharma in the index. Yum China misses out, so Sunny Optical stays in the index. ZTO Express is...

Brian Freitas

Trump aims to boost US drug manufacturing by reducing regulatory barriers, leading to industry changes. VBP will accelerate pharmacy closures....

BeiGene (6160.HK/ONC US) 2024 Results - The Performance Is Outstanding

BeiGene's sales growth of BRUKINSA in 24Q4 surpasses peers, and 2024 results beat the expectation, with potential for positive operating income in...

BeiGene's Brukinsa sees significant growth in U.S. sales, surpassing Calquence for the first time, with 60%+ demand growth from expanded use in...