Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Refiner/retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangchak-corporation-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15875:1" rel="noopener">Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)</a>'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esso-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17717:1" rel="noopener">Esso Thailand (ESSO TB)</a> from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exxon-mobil-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:811:1" rel="noopener">Exxon Mobil (XOM US)</a>.</li>
<li>The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. </li>
<li>Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. </li>
</ul>


Refiner/retailer Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)'s board has approved the purchase of a 65.99% stake in Esso Thailand (ESSO TB) from Exxon Mobil (XOM US).
The purchase price is subject to a price adjustment mechanism and will only be known upon completion of the SPA. The indicative Offer Price is THB 8.84, 20% below undisturbed. 
Once completed - tentatively anticipated in the 3Q23 - a mandatory tender offer will be triggered for the remaining 34.01% of shares out in Esso. 


CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

<ul>
<li>We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well-diversified business portfolio including E&amp;P, refinery, marketing, power, etc. supporting relatively stable earnings.</li>
<li>3Q22 earnings improved YoY, while softened QoQ The company reported a 3Q22 net profit of Bt2.5bn (+36% YoY, -53% QoQ), looming in line with our expectations. The YoY earnings growth </li>
<li>The refinery segment operating GRM dropped to US$11.2/bbl., leveling off QoQ from an exceptionally high level,due to a decline in the crack spread of all refined products as the demand </li>
</ul>


We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well-diversified business portfolio including E&amp;P, refinery, marketing, power, etc. supporting relatively stable earnings.
3Q22 earnings improved YoY, while softened QoQ The company reported a 3Q22 net profit of Bt2.5bn (+36% YoY, -53% QoQ), looming in line with our expectations. The YoY earnings growth 
The refinery segment operating GRM dropped to US$11.2/bbl., leveling off QoQ from an exceptionally high level,due to a decline in the crack spread of all refined products as the demand 


<ul>
<li>We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well diversified business portfolio including E&amp;P, refinery, marketing, power etc. supporting relatively stable earnings.</li>
<li>Exceptional GRM spike drove 2Q22 profit Excluding the stock gain of Bt3.9bn and other onetime items the recurring EBITDA stood at Bt8.7bn (+190% YoY, +14% QoQ).</li>
<li>The refinery margin (GRM) spiked to US$24.42/bbl.,compared to US$6.8/bbl.in 1Q22 and US$4.2/bbl. in 2Q21, on the back of rise in all product spreads due to supply tightness from Ukraine-Russia conflict.</li>
</ul>


We reiterate the BUY call with a TP of Bt42.0. We like BCP for its well diversified business portfolio including E&amp;P, refinery, marketing, power etc. supporting relatively stable earnings.
Exceptional GRM spike drove 2Q22 profit Excluding the stock gain of Bt3.9bn and other onetime items the recurring EBITDA stood at Bt8.7bn (+190% YoY, +14% QoQ).
The refinery margin (GRM) spiked to US$24.42/bbl.,compared to US$6.8/bbl.in 1Q22 and US$4.2/bbl. in 2Q21, on the back of rise in all product spreads due to supply tightness from Ukraine-Russia conflict.


BCP : Attractive Dividend Yield and Cheap Valuation

<ul>
<li>We reiterate the BUY call on BCP with a TP of Bt42.0. The 2Q22 net profit is expected to surge +198% YoY and +21% QoQ to Bt5.3bn. The significant YoY </li>
<li>Solid refinery performance to drive 2Q22 profit We expect BCP to post a 2Q22 net profit of Bt5.3bn (+198% YoY, +21% QoQ), a new quarterly high. </li>
<li>The refinery margin (GRM) should spike to US$24/bbl (+471% YoY, +251% QoQ), backed by the strong rise in product spreads due to demand surge and Ukraine-Russia war tensions. </li>
</ul>


We reiterate the BUY call on BCP with a TP of Bt42.0. The 2Q22 net profit is expected to surge +198% YoY and +21% QoQ to Bt5.3bn. The significant YoY 
Solid refinery performance to drive 2Q22 profit We expect BCP to post a 2Q22 net profit of Bt5.3bn (+198% YoY, +21% QoQ), a new quarterly high. 
The refinery margin (GRM) should spike to US$24/bbl (+471% YoY, +251% QoQ), backed by the strong rise in product spreads due to demand surge and Ukraine-Russia war tensions. 


BCP : Solid Refinery Performance to Drive 2Q22 Profit

Thailand

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

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