Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive outlook for refinery and power plant business in 2Q21-2H21. We maintain the BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt35.0, derived using SOTP method, implying 1.1x PBV’22E. </strong></p><div>• Expect recurring profit to improve both YoY and QoQ in 2Q21, on the back of recovering refinery operations, thanks to revamping GRM and higher refinery utilization rate after TAM in 1Q21. While net profit would soften QoQ due to lower stock gain</div><div></div><div>• Solid power plant business performance in 2Q-3Q21, backed by profit recognition from new 20MW solar projects added in 3Q20 and seasonal higher hydro power plant operation..</div><div></div><div>• Marketing and bio-based business to remain under pressure in 2Q21 due to new wave of COVID-19, while expect to improve in 2H21 as the domestic economy recovers.</div>

Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive outlook for refinery and power plant business in 2Q21-2H21. We maintain the BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt35.0, derived using SOTP method, implying 1.1x PBV’22E. • Expect recurring profit to improve both YoY and QoQ in 2Q21, on the back of recovering refinery operations, thanks to revamping GRM and higher refinery utilization rate after TAM in 1Q21. While net profit would soften QoQ due to lower stock gain• Solid power plant business performance in 2Q-3Q21, backed by profit recognition from new 20MW solar projects added in 3Q20 and seasonal higher hydro power plant operation..• Marketing and bio-based business to remain under pressure in 2Q21 due to new wave of COVID-19, while expect to improve in 2H21 as the domestic economy recovers.

BCP: Recovering Refinery and Solid Power Business Performance

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<div><p>The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will announce the results of the semi-annual review of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in mid-June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 June.</p></div><div>
<p>The review period for market cap calculations runs from 1 March to 31 May, while the liquidity calculations run from 1 June 2020 to 31 May 2021.</p>
<p>We see three potential changes at the current time with an estimated one-way turnover for the rebalance at 2.19%.</p>
<p>Potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-gloves-thailand-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29141:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-trang-agro-industry-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2759:1" rel="noopener">Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irpc-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19051:1" rel="noopener">IRPC PCL (IRPC TB)</a>.</p>
<p>Potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/com7-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27411:1" rel="noopener">Com7 PCL (COM7 TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toa-paint-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24235:1" rel="noopener">TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB)</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kerry-express-thailand" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29253:1" rel="noopener">Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB)</a> will not completed six months of trading history by the end of the review period and will not be eligible for inclusion at the June rebalance.</p>
<p>There is a possibility that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> methodology is changed to make it a free float weighted market cap index from a full market cap index. That will see a lot of passive flow on some stocks that have a low free float.</p>
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The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) will announce the results of the semi-annual review of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in mid-June and the changes will be effective after the close of trading on 30 June.
The review period for market cap calculations runs from 1 March to 31 May, while the liquidity calculations run from 1 June 2020 to 31 May 2021.
We see three potential changes at the current time with an estimated one-way turnover for the rebalance at 2.19%.
Potential inclusions are Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited (STGT TB), Sri Trang Agro Industry (STA TB) and IRPC PCL (IRPC TB).
Potential deletions are VGI PCL (VGI TB), Com7 PCL (COM7 TB) and TOA Paint (Thailand) (TOA TB).
Kerry Express Thailand (KEX TB) will not completed six months of trading history by the end of the review period and will not be eligible for inclusion at the June rebalance.
There is a possibility that the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) methodology is changed to make it a free float weighted market cap index from a full market cap index. That will see a lot of passive flow on some stocks that have a low free float.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potentially Three Changes & Move to Free Float Weighting

<p><strong>Tuesday analyst meeting came out in a positive outlook for refinery and marketing business. We expect a significant upswing in GRM tending up each quarter in 2021 on the back of resumption of gasoline and diesel demand.</strong></p><div>• The TAM in 1Q21 could pressure the earnings performance in 1Q21, However, the recovering GRM, stock gain and stable profit contribution from power and bio based business will support the net profit growth in 1Q21 and ahead.</div><div></div><div>• 1Q21 operating GRM is anticipated to improve to 4.2  US$/BBL level in 1Q21 (+12% QoQ).</div><div></div><div>• Expect BCP to book a higher stock gain of around Bt1.0bn in 1Q21 as Dubai crude price inched up to 62 US$/BBL compared to 50 US$/BBL in beginning of 1Q21.</div><p></p><p>We upgrade our recommendation to BUY (from HOLD), based on a revised-up target price of Bt35.0 factoring in the better refinery performance. Our valuation is derived using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology, implying 1.0xPBV’21E (15% discount to its Thailand peer).</p>

Tuesday analyst meeting came out in a positive outlook for refinery and marketing business. We expect a significant upswing in GRM tending up each quarter in 2021 on the back of resumption of gasoline and diesel demand.• The TAM in 1Q21 could pressure the earnings performance in 1Q21, However, the recovering GRM, stock gain and stable profit contribution from power and bio based business will support the net profit growth in 1Q21 and ahead.• 1Q21 operating GRM is anticipated to improve to 4.2  US$/BBL level in 1Q21 (+12% QoQ).• Expect BCP to book a higher stock gain of around Bt1.0bn in 1Q21 as Dubai crude price inched up to 62 US$/BBL compared to 50 US$/BBL in beginning of 1Q21.We upgrade our recommendation to BUY (from HOLD), based on a revised-up target price of Bt35.0 factoring in the better refinery performance. Our valuation is derived using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology, implying 1.0xPBV’21E (15% discount to its Thailand peer).

BCP: Recovering Refinery Performance to Be Key Earnings Driver

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

PTT Oil & Retail Business  / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-oil-and-retail" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28939:1" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB)</a>/PTTOR is the flagship company for the oil and retail business of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ptt-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:197:1" rel="noopener">PTT PCL (PTT TB)</a> in Thailand and in the Southeast Asia region such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Philippines. PTTOR is the largest player in Thailand’s fuel retail market. PTTOR priced its IPO at THB18.00 per share, at the upper end of its IPO price range of THB16.00-18.00 per share. The shares are set to start trading on Thursday, 11 February. </p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-pttor-ipo-initiation-octane-ratings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:46230" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO Initiation: Octane Ratings</a>, we stated that PTTOR remains a market-leading business and well-placed to ride the recovery in oil prices, easing of lockdown restrictions and consumer confidence.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ptt-oil-and-retail-pttor-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47147" rel="noopener">PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we opined that a reasonable P/E valuation and solid cornerstone support makes PTTOR tempting at the proposed pricing range. Our base-case DCF derived price target of THB22.20 per share. Our valuation analysis shows that the IPO price remains attractive.</p></div>
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PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB)/PTTOR is the flagship company for the oil and retail business of PTT PCL (PTT TB) in Thailand and in the Southeast Asia region such as Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Philippines. PTTOR is the largest player in Thailand’s fuel retail market. PTTOR priced its IPO at THB18.00 per share, at the upper end of its IPO price range of THB16.00-18.00 per share. The shares are set to start trading on Thursday, 11 February. 
In PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO Initiation: Octane Ratings, we stated that PTTOR remains a market-leading business and well-placed to ride the recovery in oil prices, easing of lockdown restrictions and consumer confidence.
In PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Valuation Insights, we opined that a reasonable P/E valuation and solid cornerstone support makes PTTOR tempting at the proposed pricing range. Our base-case DCF derived price target of THB22.20 per share. Our valuation analysis shows that the IPO price remains attractive.


PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Trading Debut

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>Crude: Bright E&amp;P business performance from recovering crude price</strong></p><ul><li>We expect the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, continued support from OPEC+ on regulating the crude supply, and post COVID-19 demand spike in crude products (Jet fuel, gasoline, diesel etc.) will support the Brent crude to continue the upward rally in 2021. <strong> PTTEP is our top pick</strong>, the E&amp;P business will most benefit from recovering crude price.</li></ul><p><strong>Refinery: Improving product demand to drive GRM</strong></p><ul><li>Thai refiners’ share prices are trading at 10-to-20% discount to their historical PBV multiples mainly due to the COVID-19 impact, which dragged the GRM to negative territory along with huge inventory loss. We have a positive view on 2021 refinery performance and expect the GRM to gradually pick up each quarter on the back of recovering products spreads (especially Jet fuel). <strong>TOP is our top pick </strong>among refineries considering the cheap valuation (0.9x PBV’21, 20% below its 5 year trading average), and upside from current share price (+18%).</li></ul><p><strong>Petrochemicals: Benefit from global recovery</strong></p><ul><li>We foresee a strong recovery in petrochemicals to continue in 1H21. Olefins (HDPE, PP) has already recovered back to its 5-year average ahead of Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, aromatics (PX, BZ) to be supported by growth in textile and automotive industry and new capacity in downstream products (PTA). <strong>PTTGC is our top pick</strong> as overall businesses benefit from petrochemical upswing. The company will also realize 10% more capacity in PO/Polyols unit by 1Q21.</li></ul><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/642/original/SMK1.png?1611645077" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184642"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Valuation Summary*</strong></p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/643/original/Picture1.jpg?1611645252" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184643"></figure></section><p style="text-align: center;"><em>Source: CGS Research, Company data, SET</em></p></section>

Crude: Bright E&amp;P business performance from recovering crude priceWe expect the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, continued support from OPEC+ on regulating the crude supply, and post COVID-19 demand spike in crude products (Jet fuel, gasoline, diesel etc.) will support the Brent crude to continue the upward rally in 2021.  PTTEP is our top pick, the E&amp;P business will most benefit from recovering crude price.Refinery: Improving product demand to drive GRMThai refiners’ share prices are trading at 10-to-20% discount to their historical PBV multiples mainly due to the COVID-19 impact, which dragged the GRM to negative territory along with huge inventory loss. We have a positive view on 2021 refinery performance and expect the GRM to gradually pick up each quarter on the back of recovering products spreads (especially Jet fuel). TOP is our top pick among refineries considering the cheap valuation (0.9x PBV’21, 20% below its 5 year trading average), and upside from current share price (+18%).Petrochemicals: Benefit from global recoveryWe foresee a strong recovery in petrochemicals to continue in 1H21. Olefins (HDPE, PP) has already recovered back to its 5-year average ahead of Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, aromatics (PX, BZ) to be supported by growth in textile and automotive industry and new capacity in downstream products (PTA). PTTGC is our top pick as overall businesses benefit from petrochemical upswing. The company will also realize 10% more capacity in PO/Polyols unit by 1Q21.Valuation Summary*
Source: CGS Research, Company data, SET

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil Demand Recovery to Drive 2021 Earnings

Thailand

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

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Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)

BCP: Recovering Refinery and Solid Power Business Performance

Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive outlook for refinery and power plant business in 2Q21-2H21. We maintain the BUY recommendation...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potentially Three Changes & Move to Free Float Weighting

There could be 3 changes to the SET50 at the June review with STGT, STA & IRPC joining the index at the expense of VGI, TOA & COM7. The methodology...

Brian Freitas

BCP: Recovering Refinery Performance to Be Key Earnings Driver

Tuesday analyst meeting came out in a positive outlook for refinery and marketing business. We expect a significant upswing in GRM tending up each...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail (PTTOR) IPO: Trading Debut

PTTOR priced its IPO at THB18.00 per share and the shares are set to start trading on 11 February. Our valuation analysis shows that the IPO price...

Arun George

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil Demand Recovery to Drive 2021 Earnings

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil demand recovery to drive 2021 earnings. We expect bright E&P business performance from recovering crude price, and...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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