Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BCP reported a slight net profit in 4Q24-2024 due to stock losses.</li><li>We maintain our earnings forecasts for 2025-26E, projecting a strong 2Y core EPS CAGR of 25%, driven by the refinery business (enhanced refining efficiency and lower transport costs using VLCCs), the marketing business (network expansion and higher oil sales volume), synergy benefits from BCP-BSRC, new profit streams from SAF in 2Q25E, and BCPG’s rising core profit trend.</li><li>We maintain our Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt42.12.</li></ul>

BCP reported a slight net profit in 4Q24-2024 due to stock losses.We maintain our earnings forecasts for 2025-26E, projecting a strong 2Y core EPS CAGR of 25%, driven by the refinery business (enhanced refining efficiency and lower transport costs using VLCCs), the marketing business (network expansion and higher oil sales volume), synergy benefits from BCP-BSRC, new profit streams from SAF in 2Q25E, and BCPG’s rising core profit trend.We maintain our Outperform rating with a fair value of Bt42.12.

Bangchak Corporation - Downbeat 4Q24 NP Due to One-Off Items; Restructuring Plan

<ul><li>We expect stock losses to have pressured net profit in 4Q24E- 2024E.</li><li>However, we fine-tuned our 2025-26E earnings forecasts up by 2%, reflecting the earnings forecast revisions for BCPG earlier.</li><li>We anticipate strong 2-year core EPS growth at a 29% CAGR, supported by new profit contributions from the SAF project.</li></ul>

We expect stock losses to have pressured net profit in 4Q24E- 2024E.However, we fine-tuned our 2025-26E earnings forecasts up by 2%, reflecting the earnings forecast revisions for BCPG earlier.We anticipate strong 2-year core EPS growth at a 29% CAGR, supported by new profit contributions from the SAF project.

Bangchak Corporation - Stock Losses to Have Pressured Net Profit in 4Q24-2024E

<ul><li>The 3Q24 results turned to a loss as expected (due to sustained low refining margins and stock losses). We maintain our earnings forecast.</li><li>We expect the 2024E core profit to decline YoY, though to a lesser extent than peers (owing to the full-year consolidation of BSRC and OKEA's new petroleum acquisitions).</li><li>We anticipate an upward trend in 2025-26E (15% CAGR), supported by the new contribution from the SAF project.</li></ul>

The 3Q24 results turned to a loss as expected (due to sustained low refining margins and stock losses). We maintain our earnings forecast.We expect the 2024E core profit to decline YoY, though to a lesser extent than peers (owing to the full-year consolidation of BSRC and OKEA's new petroleum acquisitions).We anticipate an upward trend in 2025-26E (15% CAGR), supported by the new contribution from the SAF project.

Bangchak Corporation -In-Line 3Q24 Net Loss Due to Stock Losses

<ul><li>Given the anticipated reversal to a loss in 3Q24E (due to sustained low refining margins and stock losses), we have revised down our refining margin and earnings estimates for 2024-26E.</li><li>Core profit in 2024E is forecast to decline YoY before seeing an upward trend in 2025-26E (at 15% CAGR).</li><li>Our new fair value estimate is Bt41.35 (down from Bt43.67) with a required return of 14.8%. </li></ul>

Given the anticipated reversal to a loss in 3Q24E (due to sustained low refining margins and stock losses), we have revised down our refining margin and earnings estimates for 2024-26E.Core profit in 2024E is forecast to decline YoY before seeing an upward trend in 2025-26E (at 15% CAGR).Our new fair value estimate is Bt41.35 (down from Bt43.67) with a required return of 14.8%. 

Bangchak Corporation - Expect Net Loss in 3Q24E; Revised Down GRM/Earnings Forecasts

<ul><li>The 2Q24 earnings were in line with the expectation.</li><li>The company’s share price has already priced in the negatives, including the weaker market GRM and core earnings in 2Q24, as well as the upcoming implementation of the new Petroleum Act later this year.</li><li>This could pose risk to downstream operators if oil prices are regulated rather than liberalized as they are currently.</li></ul>

The 2Q24 earnings were in line with the expectation.The company’s share price has already priced in the negatives, including the weaker market GRM and core earnings in 2Q24, as well as the upcoming implementation of the new Petroleum Act later this year.This could pose risk to downstream operators if oil prices are regulated rather than liberalized as they are currently.

Bangchak Corporation - In-Line 2Q24 NP; Weak Core Earnings, Offset by Extra Gains

Thailand

Bangchak Corporation Public Company Limited operates as an energy company. The Company offers petroleum exploration and production, biomass, crude oil, and solar energy. Bangchak markets its products in Thailand.

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Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB)

Bangchak Corporation - Downbeat 4Q24 NP Due to One-Off Items; Restructuring Plan

The company’s restructuring plan through a share swap between BCP and BSRC is expected to enhance operational flexibility, with the dilution effect...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangchak Corporation - Stock Losses to Have Pressured Net Profit in 4Q24-2024E

We expect stock losses to have pressured net profit in 4Q24E- 2024E. However, we fine-tuned our 2025-26E earnings forecasts up by 2%

Krungthai XSpring

Bangchak Corporation -In-Line 3Q24 Net Loss Due to Stock Losses

The 3Q24 results turned to a loss as expected (due to sustained low refining margins and stock losses). We maintain our earnings forecast.

Krungthai XSpring

Bangchak Corporation - Expect Net Loss in 3Q24E; Revised Down GRM/Earnings Forecasts

Given the anticipated reversal to a loss in 3Q24E (due to sustained low refining margins and stock losses), we have revised down our refining...

Krungthai XSpring

Bangchak Corporation - In-Line 2Q24 NP; Weak Core Earnings, Offset by Extra Gains

The 2Q24 earnings were in line with the expectation. The company’s share price has already priced in the negatives, including the weaker market GRM...

Krungthai XSpring

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