EM Energy: Big Underperformance - Positioning at Record Lows, but Stabilizing.

Commodity Supercycle: Bull and Bear Debate

Smartkarma Webinar | Investor Positioning in Emerging Markets

TOP: Premier Thai Refinery to Post Huge Earnings Turnaround in 2021E

PTTGC: Expect Strong Recovery in 4Q20 Earnings

PTTEP: Bright 2021 Earnings Outlook from Recovering Crude Price

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Thailand Oil, gas and consumable fuels / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Crude: Bright E&amp;P business performance from recovering crude price<ul><li>We expect the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, continued support from OPEC+ on regulating the crude supply, and post COVID-19 demand spike in crude products (Jet fuel, gasoline, diesel etc.) will support the Brent crude to continue the upward rally in 2021.  PTTEP is our top pick, the E&amp;P business will most benefit from recovering crude price.</li></ul>Refinery: Improving product demand to drive GRM<ul><li>Thai refiners’ share prices are trading at 10-to-20% discount to their historical PBV multiples mainly due to the COVID-19 impact, which dragged the GRM to negative territory along with huge inventory loss. We have a positive view on 2021 refinery performance and expect the GRM to gradually pick up each quarter on the back of recovering products spreads (especially Jet fuel). TOP is our top pick among refineries considering the cheap valuation (0.9x PBV’21, 20% below its 5 year trading average), and upside from current share price (+18%).</li></ul>Petrochemicals: Benefit from global recovery<ul><li>We foresee a strong recovery in petrochemicals to continue in 1H21. Olefins (HDPE, PP) has already recovered back to its 5-year average ahead of Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, aromatics (PX, BZ) to be supported by growth in textile and automotive industry and new capacity in downstream products (PTA). PTTGC is our top pick as overall businesses benefit from petrochemical upswing. The company will also realize 10% more capacity in PO/Polyols unit by 1Q21.</li></ul><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/642/original/SMK1.png?1611645077" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184642"></figure>Valuation Summary*
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/184/643/original/Picture1.jpg?1611645252" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="184643"></figure></section>Source: CGS Research, Company data, SET</section>

Crude: Bright E&amp;P business performance from recovering crude priceWe expect the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, continued support from OPEC+ on regulating the crude supply, and post COVID-19 demand spike in crude products (Jet fuel, gasoline, diesel etc.) will support the Brent crude to continue the upward rally in 2021.  PTTEP is our top pick, the E&amp;P business will most benefit from recovering crude price.Refinery: Improving product demand to drive GRMThai refiners’ share prices are trading at 10-to-20% discount to their historical PBV multiples mainly due to the COVID-19 impact, which dragged the GRM to negative territory along with huge inventory loss. We have a positive view on 2021 refinery performance and expect the GRM to gradually pick up each quarter on the back of recovering products spreads (especially Jet fuel). TOP is our top pick among refineries considering the cheap valuation (0.9x PBV’21, 20% below its 5 year trading average), and upside from current share price (+18%).Petrochemicals: Benefit from global recoveryWe foresee a strong recovery in petrochemicals to continue in 1H21. Olefins (HDPE, PP) has already recovered back to its 5-year average ahead of Chinese New Year. Meanwhile, aromatics (PX, BZ) to be supported by growth in textile and automotive industry and new capacity in downstream products (PTA). PTTGC is our top pick as overall businesses benefit from petrochemical upswing. The company will also realize 10% more capacity in PO/Polyols unit by 1Q21.Valuation Summary*
Source: CGS Research, Company data, SET

Energy Sector : Overweight- Oil Demand Recovery to Drive 2021 Earnings