Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

PTT Oil & Retail Business  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Five-year capex for 2026–30E has been cut by 4% from the previous plan (from Bt60.4bn in 2025–29E), mainly due to lower investment in the lifestyle and global segments.</li><li>2026E capex is projected at Bt18.7bn (about 32% of the five-year plan), including some deferred spending from 2025E.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating (2026 FV: Bt14.50), as our 2025–27E forecasts already reflect the Cambodia contraction and earnings remain unexciting versus peers (flat 2Y core EPS growth).</li></ul>

Five-year capex for 2026–30E has been cut by 4% from the previous plan (from Bt60.4bn in 2025–29E), mainly due to lower investment in the lifestyle and global segments.2026E capex is projected at Bt18.7bn (about 32% of the five-year plan), including some deferred spending from 2025E.We maintain a Neutral rating (2026 FV: Bt14.50), as our 2025–27E forecasts already reflect the Cambodia contraction and earnings remain unexciting versus peers (flat 2Y core EPS growth).

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc. (OR): Five-Year Investment Plan (2026–30E)

<ul><li>3Q25 NP was strong as expected, driven by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold.</li><li>We maintain Neutral with 2026 FV Bt14.50, as current valuation remains neutral amid flat 2Y core EPS growth (2025–27E) and very limited tactical downside.</li><li>OR posted 3Q25 NP of Bt2.6bn, 4% above forecast, aided by a Bt103mn receivable credit reversal.</li></ul>

3Q25 NP was strong as expected, driven by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold.We maintain Neutral with 2026 FV Bt14.50, as current valuation remains neutral amid flat 2Y core EPS growth (2025–27E) and very limited tactical downside.OR posted 3Q25 NP of Bt2.6bn, 4% above forecast, aided by a Bt103mn receivable credit reversal.

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc. (OR): Strong 3Q25 Earnings...

<ul><li>We expect strong 3Q25E net profit, supported by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold.</li><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a 2026 FV of Bt14.50.</li><li>We expect 3Q25E net profit of Bt2.5bn, reversing from a Bt1.6bn net loss in 3Q24 (due to stock loss, low-base GP/liter in Mobility, forex loss, and one-off expenses), up 13% QoQ.</li></ul>

We expect strong 3Q25E net profit, supported by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold.We maintain a Neutral rating with a 2026 FV of Bt14.50.We expect 3Q25E net profit of Bt2.5bn, reversing from a Bt1.6bn net loss in 3Q24 (due to stock loss, low-base GP/liter in Mobility, forex loss, and one-off expenses), up 13% QoQ.

PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS Plc. (OR): Strong 3Q25E...

<ul><li>We maintain our view that OR’s performance already peaked in 1Q25, with challenges ahead in 2H25E from seasonal effects in 3Q, marketing margin pressure, and accelerating SG&amp;A expenses amid intense competition in the oil retail business.</li><li>The company did not extend its gasoline-gasohol discount campaign launched during April to June as sales volume was below the targets.</li><li>In addition, unrest in Cambodia and the boycott of Thai products could pose downside risks to oil and Café Amazon sales for the global business in 2H25E.</li></ul>

We maintain our view that OR’s performance already peaked in 1Q25, with challenges ahead in 2H25E from seasonal effects in 3Q, marketing margin pressure, and accelerating SG&amp;A expenses amid intense competition in the oil retail business.The company did not extend its gasoline-gasohol discount campaign launched during April to June as sales volume was below the targets.In addition, unrest in Cambodia and the boycott of Thai products could pose downside risks to oil and Café Amazon sales for the global business in 2H25E.

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Weak 2Q25 Earnings as Expected

<ul><li>We forecast a net profit of Bt2.34bn (-8% YoY, -47% QoQ) and core profit of Bt2.5bn (+9% YoY, -33% QoQ) in 2Q25E.</li><li>The QoQ decline is primarily driven by the following: i) The oil sales volume of the mobility business is likely to have dropped 5% QoQ to 6,386mn liters.</li><li>This includes a 10% QoQ retreat in commercial segment sales volume owing to seasonally lower jet fuel demand and a modest 4% QoQ recovery in the retail segment, despite the Bt0.50/liter gasoline and gasool discount campaign should have been minimal as sales volume may have significantly  missed expectations.</li></ul>

We forecast a net profit of Bt2.34bn (-8% YoY, -47% QoQ) and core profit of Bt2.5bn (+9% YoY, -33% QoQ) in 2Q25E.The QoQ decline is primarily driven by the following: i) The oil sales volume of the mobility business is likely to have dropped 5% QoQ to 6,386mn liters.This includes a 10% QoQ retreat in commercial segment sales volume owing to seasonally lower jet fuel demand and a modest 4% QoQ recovery in the retail segment, despite the Bt0.50/liter gasoline and gasool discount campaign should have been minimal as sales volume may have significantly  missed expectations.

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Expect Weak 2Q25E Earnings

Thailand

PTT Oil and Retail Business Public Company Limited distributes petroleum products. The Company offers oil, gas, fuels, LPG, lubricants, and other related items. PTT Oil and Retail Business serves customers in Thailand.

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PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB)

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc. (OR): Five-Year Investment Plan (2026–30E)

Five-year capex for 2026–30E has been cut by 4% from the previous plan (from Bt60.4bn in 2025–29E), mainly due to lower investment in the lifestyle...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT Oil And Retail Business Plc. (OR): Strong 3Q25 Earnings...

We maintain Neutral with 2026 FV Bt14.50, as current valuation remains neutral amid flat 2Y core EPS growth (2025–27E) and very limited tactical...

Krungthai XSpring

PTT OIL AND RETAIL BUSINESS Plc. (OR): Strong 3Q25E...

We expect strong 3Q25E net profit, supported by higher GP/liter and record Café Amazon cups sold. We maintain a Neutral rating with a 2026 FV of...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Weak 2Q25 Earnings as Expected

We maintain our view that OR’s performance already peaked in 1Q25, with challenges ahead in 2H25E from seasonal effects in 3Q, marketing margin...

Krungthai XSpring

Ptt Oil and Retail Business - Expect Weak 2Q25E Earnings

he QoQ decline is primarily driven by the following: i) The oil sales volume of the mobility business is likely to have dropped 5% QoQ to 6,386mn...

Krungthai XSpring

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