Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Investment Research - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After two challenging months, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a> ’s October sales rebounded strongly, driven by strong festive demand and deep discounts.</li>
<li>The company appears to have effectively managed its after-sales complaints crisis, easing  investor concerns ahead its 90-day lock-up expiry on November 5th.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)</a>'s upside and path to profitability relies on increasing electric bike adoption, improving margins through in-house cell manufacturing, and leveraging PLI incentives.</li>
</ul>


After two challenging months, Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) ’s October sales rebounded strongly, driven by strong festive demand and deep discounts.
The company appears to have effectively managed its after-sales complaints crisis, easing  investor concerns ahead its 90-day lock-up expiry on November 5th.

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)'s upside and path to profitability relies on increasing electric bike adoption, improving margins through in-house cell manufacturing, and leveraging PLI incentives.


Ola Electric's Volume Recovery: Eases Investor Concerns Ahead of Lock up Expiry on Nov 5th

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bundl-technologies-private-limited-swiggy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35630:1" rel="noopener">Swiggy</a> is looking to raise around US$1.35bn in its India IPO.</li>
<li>Swiggy Limited (Swiggy) is a business to commerce (B2C) marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items (Instamart) and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



Swiggy is looking to raise around US$1.35bn in its India IPO.
Swiggy Limited (Swiggy) is a business to commerce (B2C) marketplace company offering users a platform for ordering grocery and household items (Instamart) and food delivery, through its on-demand delivery network.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor (005380 KS)</a> raised INR 279bn (US$3.3bn) by selling some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a>, valuing Hyundai India at INR 1,593bn (US$18.95bn).</li>
<li>The anchor investor book was fully subscribed. The non-institutional and retail books were undersubscribed, so institutions got more stock. And that changes the free float estimates for one global index.</li>
<li>Even with the higher float, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN)</a> is unlikely to get Fast Entry to one global index later this month. Index inclusions should commence in February 2025.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) raised INR 279bn (US$3.3bn) by selling some of its stake in Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN), valuing Hyundai India at INR 1,593bn (US$18.95bn).
The anchor investor book was fully subscribed. The non-institutional and retail books were undersubscribed, so institutions got more stock. And that changes the free float estimates for one global index.
Even with the higher float, Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) is unlikely to get Fast Entry to one global index later this month. Index inclusions should commence in February 2025.


Hyundai Motor India IPO: How Far to Fast Entry?

Hyundai Motor India  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co-3267897e-5e6b-47f2-9804-92aa22202d2b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26933:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor (005387 KS)</a> raised around US$3.3bn via listing its India unit, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40900:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor India</a>. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.</li>
<li>HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Hyundai Motor (005387 KS) raised around US$3.3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Hyundai Motor India IPO Trading - Set for a Tricky Start

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This past week, activist Murakami-san's City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.</li>
<li>The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They've since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.</li>
<li>If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is &lt;0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There's room to run here, still. </li>
</ul>


This past week, activist Murakami-san's City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.
The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They've since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.
If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is &lt;0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There's room to run here, still. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

India

Bajaj Auto Limited manufactures and distributes motorized two-wheeled and three-wheeled scooters, motorcycles and mopeds.

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Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN)

Ola Electric's Volume Recovery: Eases Investor Concerns Ahead of Lock up Expiry on Nov 5th

Expect the stock to stay range bound with near term valuations in line with well-established two wheeler peers TVS Motors and Bajaj Auto.

Devi Subhakesan

Swiggy IPO - Not as Cheap as It Looks

Swiggy is looking to raise around US$1.35bn in its India IPO. We have looked at its past performance earlier. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Sumeet Singh

Hyundai Motor India IPO: How Far to Fast Entry?

Hyundai India sold shares worth US$3.3bn in its IPO valuing the company at US$19bn. Grey market indicates a 3-5% higher opening today. Fast Entry...

Brian Freitas

Hyundai Motor India IPO Trading - Set for a Tricky Start

Hyundai Motor (005387 KS) raised around US$3.3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. In this note, we talk about the demand and...

Sumeet Singh

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

Muirakami-san continues to accumulate Exedy. Now at 23.5%. Remaining overhang from the 36+% offering is 2%. Earnings are in a week. Excess capital...

Travis Lundy

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