Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>8 days ago I wrote Murakami-san upped his stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> to 23.5%, could buy more into earnings, and earnings could deliver a buyback. That was ¥3495/3600.</li>
<li>He bought more, reported 24.72% as of 22-Oct). I bet he reports more in a week. Also, Exedy today reported a small yoy gain in H1 revenue. OP+76%yoy. NP+17%yoy.</li>
<li>The company also reported a BIG div hike to ¥200/yr and a giant ¥30bn buyback. Activists and Murakami hangers-on have won. So watch out! The playbook is different than expected.</li>
</ul>


8 days ago I wrote Murakami-san upped his stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) to 23.5%, could buy more into earnings, and earnings could deliver a buyback. That was ¥3495/3600.
He bought more, reported 24.72% as of 22-Oct). I bet he reports more in a week. Also, Exedy today reported a small yoy gain in H1 revenue. OP+76%yoy. NP+17%yoy.
The company also reported a BIG div hike to ¥200/yr and a giant ¥30bn buyback. Activists and Murakami hangers-on have won. So watch out! The playbook is different than expected.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - You Won, BIG Capital Payout, Murakami Up. Now Watch Out!

<ul>
<li>Late May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> announced a sell-down of its 34% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> - a big non-dilutive offering, pricing 11% below undisturbed. Exedy announced a buyback.</li>
<li>Announced on the 27th of May, shares fell sharply the next day, it priced on the 3rd, and offering shares traded on the 10th. Then the price started climbing back.</li>
<li>My <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cash-rich-exedy-7278-sees-huge-offering-offset-by-huge-buyback-watch-for-short-term-games" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/exedy-7278-huge-offering-resized-watch-the-dynamics-here" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second</a> pieces argued that buyback accretion, index impact, and change in register shape all meant it was a buy. Activist Murakami agreed, now he has 6.5%. </li>
</ul>


Late May, Aisin (7259 JP) announced a sell-down of its 34% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP) - a big non-dilutive offering, pricing 11% below undisturbed. Exedy announced a buyback.
Announced on the 27th of May, shares fell sharply the next day, it priced on the 3rd, and offering shares traded on the 10th. Then the price started climbing back.
My first and second pieces argued that buyback accretion, index impact, and change in register shape all meant it was a buy. Activist Murakami agreed, now he has 6.5%. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] - Murakami Group Goes Activisting on Exedy (7278) - Room To Run

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> announced a big buyback. Murakami-san did not sell the first pop. The shares fell. Exedy started buying back and the shares went up. Now Murakami's selling.</li>
<li>Today after the close, Murakami Group companies announced that City Index Elevens had started selling. They sold 1.25% of shares out in 6 trading days to 16 December. </li>
<li>I expect they sold another 2% in the past week through today. Shares tanked today. This is not a good signal. And it comes earlier than I expected. </li>
</ul>



Exedy Corp (7278 JP) announced a big buyback. Murakami-san did not sell the first pop. The shares fell. Exedy started buying back and the shares went up. Now Murakami's selling.
Today after the close, Murakami Group companies announced that City Index Elevens had started selling. They sold 1.25% of shares out in 6 trading days to 16 December. 
I expect they sold another 2% in the past week through today. Shares tanked today. This is not a good signal. And it comes earlier than I expected. 


[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) - Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a> announced an offering of 36% of its shares at end-May. Long-time "owner" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> was getting out. Since then, the company has bought back shares.</li>
<li>Activist Murakami Group has bought 27% of the company. Between Murakami and the buyback, the public has net sold 5% of the company since end-March. Kinda shocking.</li>
<li>There is another 35% of Max Real World Float to buy back, and at current pace, they'll be done by mid-March 2025. Then what? That's the really big question.</li>
</ul>



Exedy Corp (7278 JP) announced an offering of 36% of its shares at end-May. Long-time "owner" Aisin (7259 JP) was getting out. Since then, the company has bought back shares.
Activist Murakami Group has bought 27% of the company. Between Murakami and the buyback, the public has net sold 5% of the company since end-March. Kinda shocking.
There is another 35% of Max Real World Float to buy back, and at current pace, they'll be done by mid-March 2025. Then what? That's the really big question.


[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278 JP) - Buying Back Bigly

<ul>
<li>I wrote last when Exedy was at ¥3,900 and had just announced, good earnings, a sharp div hike, and a huge buyback. The stock reacted well, but not THAT well.</li>
<li>Murakami-San had indeed lifted his stake, and the stock is now climbing again. Presumably, the company is in the market buying. At this price, it depends on what Murakami-san does.</li>
<li>Fat div. Lots of volume to buy in the next several months, but the big story is future measures.</li>
</ul>


I wrote last when Exedy was at ¥3,900 and had just announced, good earnings, a sharp div hike, and a huge buyback. The stock reacted well, but not THAT well.
Murakami-San had indeed lifted his stake, and the stock is now climbing again. Presumably, the company is in the market buying. At this price, it depends on what Murakami-san does.
Fat div. Lots of volume to buy in the next several months, but the big story is future measures.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - Immediate Results Reaction Was a Damp Squib, But Climbing Now

Japan

EXEDY Corporation manufactures drivetrain products for automobiles, industrial vehicles, and construction machinery.  The Company's products include manual clutches, torque converters, power shift transmissions, and hydraulic clutches. Exedy has its subsidiaries in South Korea, Australia, the US and the UK.

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Exedy Corp (7278 JP)

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - You Won, BIG Capital Payout, Murakami Up. Now Watch Out!

Exedy (7278) Earnings were OK/decent. Murakami-san has gone to 24.7%. We have a sharply higher dividend payout and policy, and a HUGE buyback....

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] - Murakami Group Goes Activisting on Exedy (7278) - Room To Run

The Murakami Group has now bought 10.1% of Exedy (7278). Interestingly, NOMURA Aya bought another 1.18% on 14 June to get to 9.59%, then sold 6.79%...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278) - Murakami-San Selling into the Buyback

Exedy is buying back a lot of shares. Murakami-san has started selling, and it would appear he is selling a fair bit. It may be accounting. It may...

Travis Lundy

[Japan Activism] Exedy (7278 JP) - Buying Back Bigly

Exedy is buying back shares very aggressively. On an average day since they started 12 Nov, they are 28% of the volume. At this pace, they will...

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - Immediate Results Reaction Was a Damp Squib, But Climbing Now

Murakami-san is at 26% of voting rights and together with the first buyback, the entire Aisin offering is now covered. The next large buyback is...

Travis Lundy

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