Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<p>The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns.</p>
<p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand Environment &amp; Business performance; Margins &amp; Inventory; Supply Chain, price increases and discounting; Competition and market share; New launches; Electric vehicles (EVs); Outlook and Strategy</p>
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<p>Companies covered included <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> (Primarily Standalone India Business) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> /  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a></p>


The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns.
For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand Environment &amp; Business performance; Margins &amp; Inventory; Supply Chain, price increases and discounting; Competition and market share; New launches; Electric vehicles (EVs); Outlook and Strategy

Companies covered included Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) (Primarily Standalone India Business) / Ashok Leyland (AL IN) /  Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BOB Capital Markets Ltd

BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Q1 revenue and gross margin beat our estimates but lower operating efficiency crimped profitability</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Q1 revenue and gross margin beat our estimates but lower operating efficiency crimped profitabilityContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland (SELL): Margin stress ahead; maintain SELL

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<p>In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makemytrip-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23580:1" rel="noopener">Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stove-kraft-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31372:1" rel="noopener">Stove Kraft (0490943D IN)</a></p>
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<h3>About India Channel Insight</h3>
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<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  </p>
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In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on Asian Paints (APNT IN) , Ashok Leyland (AL IN), Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) and Stove Kraft (0490943D IN)

About India Channel Insight


Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  


India Channel Insight | Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip, Stove Kraft

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

<p>MHCV market share improved to 28.9% in Q4FY21 (v/s 27.6% in Q4FY20). AL's Q4FY21 results beat our Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT estimates by 8%/29%/66% led by 1) strong volume growth, 2) increasing share of MHCV causing better realizations and 3) operating leverage benefits compensating RM cost inflations. We note improvement in fleet utilization levels post opening of the economy in June.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

MHCV market share improved to 28.9% in Q4FY21 (v/s 27.6% in Q4FY20). AL's Q4FY21 results beat our Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT estimates by 8%/29%/66% led by 1) strong volume growth, 2) increasing share of MHCV causing better realizations and 3) operating leverage benefits compensating RM cost inflations. We note improvement in fleet utilization levels post opening of the economy in June.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q4FY21 Result Update - Operating leverage and mix to drive margins - BUY

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

<p>Better product mix, o/p leverage to outweigh cost pressures ALL has an ambition of being among the top 10 global CV players and is thus looking at exports as a major enabler. In line with this, it has introduced left hand drive (LHD) functionality across new platforms in both M&amp;HCV; (modular programme, AVTR) and LCV (Project Phoenix). Higher share of exports, going forward, is set to improve blended realizations. Under Project Reset', ALL expects profitability actions on costs, cash &amp; capex to reflect in financials meaningfully from FY22E onwards.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Better product mix, o/p leverage to outweigh cost pressures ALL has an ambition of being among the top 10 global CV players and is thus looking at exports as a major enabler. In line with this, it has introduced left hand drive (LHD) functionality across new platforms in both M&amp;HCV; (modular programme, AVTR) and LCV (Project Phoenix). Higher share of exports, going forward, is set to improve blended realizations. Under Project Reset', ALL expects profitability actions on costs, cash &amp; capex to reflect in financials meaningfully from FY22E onwards.
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland: Well Poised to Capture Industry Tailwinds

India

Ashok Leyland Limited manufactures medium and heavy duty commercial vehicles, including buses, tractors, dumpsters, haulage trucks, fire engines, and defense sector vehicles. The Company also manufactures industrial & marine engines, ferrous castings and spare parts for automobiles. Ashok Leyland sells its products in India and abroad.

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Ashok Leyland (AL IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Companies covered included Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Ashok...

Pranav Bhavsar

Ashok Leyland (SELL): Margin stress ahead; maintain SELL

Q1 revenue and gross margin beat our estimates but lower operating efficiency crimped profitability

BOB Capital Markets Ltd.

India Channel Insight | Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip, Stove Kraft

In this Insight, we present our takeaways from channel interactions that are focused on Asian Paints, Ashok Leyland, Makemytrip Ltd and Stove Kraft

Pranav Bhavsar

Q4FY21 Result Update - Operating leverage and mix to drive margins - BUY

MHCV market share improved to 28.9% in Q4FY21 (v/s 27.6% in Q4FY20). AL's Q4FY21 results beat our Revenue/EBITDA/Adj. PAT estimates by 8%/29%/66%...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

Ashok Leyland: Well Poised to Capture Industry Tailwinds

Better product mix, O/P leverage to outweigh cost pressures. ALL has an ambition of being among the top 10 global CV players and is thus looking at...

ICICI Securities Limited

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