Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For this channel insight, we interact with commercial vehicle (CV) dealers from 5 cities representing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> </li>
<li>Our interactions suggest first-time buyers and retail transporters have disappeared from the market.</li>
<li>We believe the odds of an MHCV (Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles) recovery over the next year are slim.  </li>
</ul>


For this channel insight, we interact with commercial vehicle (CV) dealers from 5 cities representing Ashok Leyland (AL IN) , Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN), Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) 
Our interactions suggest first-time buyers and retail transporters have disappeared from the market.
We believe the odds of an MHCV (Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles) recovery over the next year are slim.  


India Channel Insight #20 | Ashok Leyland, M&M (CV), Tata Motors (CV)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Ashok Leyland Ltd (AL) reported a decent set of results albeit stood lower than our expectations.</li><li>AL is focusing on reducing its dependence on the cyclical truck business by increasing the revenue share of Exports, Defense, Power Solutions, LCV, and the parts business</li><li>We maintain our BUY rating on the stock and value it at 18x FY24E EPS to arrive at a TP to Rs 175 (Rs 160 earlier), implying an upside of 15% from CMP.</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Ashok Leyland Ltd (AL) reported a decent set of results albeit stood lower than our expectations.AL is focusing on reducing its dependence on the cyclical truck business by increasing the revenue share of Exports, Defense, Power Solutions, LCV, and the parts businessWe maintain our BUY rating on the stock and value it at 18x FY24E EPS to arrive at a TP to Rs 175 (Rs 160 earlier), implying an upside of 15% from CMP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland: Weak Performance Due to Multiple Headwinds; Growth Drivers Intact

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited

ICICI Securities Ltd

ICICI Securities Limited provides investment services. The Company provides corporate and investment banking, securities, wealth management, retail brokerage, initial public offerings, and advisory services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Ashok Leyland (ALL) is a pure-play CV manufacturer domestically, with FY21 market share at 16.3%.</li><li>FY21 product mix – LCV goods 48.3%, trucks 45.8%, buses 5.6%</li><li>We value ALL at revised SOTP based target price of | 175 (15x CV FY23-24E avg. EV/EBITDA, 3x P/BV for investments; earlier TP Rs 160)</li></ul><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

Ashok Leyland (ALL) is a pure-play CV manufacturer domestically, with FY21 market share at 16.3%.FY21 product mix – LCV goods 48.3%, trucks 45.8%, buses 5.6%We value ALL at revised SOTP based target price of | 175 (15x CV FY23-24E avg. EV/EBITDA, 3x P/BV for investments; earlier TP Rs 160)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ashok Leyland: Cyclical Recovery, High Double Digit Growth Lies Ahead

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
<p>Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. </p>
<p>The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>.</p>
<p>We have separated the quotes to highlight<em><strong> Business Performance and Demand Environment, Consumer Behaviour and Profile, Commodity Inflation, Discounts &amp; Margins, Inventory, New Products / EV / Hybrid,  Exports, Outlook.</strong></em></p>

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) / Eicher Motors (EIM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) / Ashok Leyland (AL IN).
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Performance and Demand Environment, Consumer Behaviour and Profile, Commodity Inflation, Discounts &amp; Margins, Inventory, New Products / EV / Hybrid,  Exports, Outlook.

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India 4Ws - Maruti, Eicher, Tata Motors, Mahindra, Ashok Leyland

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

India

Ashok Leyland Limited manufactures medium and heavy duty commercial vehicles, including buses, tractors, dumpsters, haulage trucks, fire engines, and defense sector vehicles. The Company also manufactures industrial & marine engines, ferrous castings and spare parts for automobiles. Ashok Leyland sells its products in India and abroad.

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Ashok Leyland (AL IN)

India Channel Insight #20 | Ashok Leyland, M&M (CV), Tata Motors (CV)

For this channel insight, we interact with commercial vehicle (CV) dealers from 5 cities representing Ashok Leyland (AL IN) , Mahindra & Mahindra...

Pranav Bhavsar

Ashok Leyland: Weak Performance Due to Multiple Headwinds; Growth Drivers Intact

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock and value it at 18x FY24E EPS to arrive at a TP to Rs 175 (Rs 160 earlier), implying an upside of 15% from...

Axis Direct

Ashok Leyland: Cyclical Recovery, High Double Digit Growth Lies Ahead

Ashok Leyland (ALL) is a pure-play CV manufacturer domestically, with FY21 market share at 16.3%. The company is present in M&HCV trucks and buses...

ICICI Securities Limited

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India 4Ws - Maruti, Eicher, Tata Motors, Mahindra, Ashok Leyland

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Maruti Suzuki / Eicher Motors / Tata Motors Ltd / Mahindra & Mahindra / Ashok...

Pranav Bhavsar

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

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